Early winter weather predictions released by NOAA

(NEXSTAR) – Warmer and dry or about-normal and wet – that’s the way late fall and early winter are expected to be divided in the U.S., according to the latest outlook.

As it did in September , the latest seasonal forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows a country divided.

The forecast, released Thursday, shows the kind of broad weather patterns each state can expect through the last two months of 2026 and the first of 2027, falling roughly in line with what is expected from the “historic” El Niño we’re facing .

States in the northern half of the country – from the Pacific Northwest, along the Canadian border, through the Midwest, into the Ohio Valley eastward, and north to New England – have the highest probability of seeing above-average warmth between November and January.

An expanding group of states – including all or parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, and California – are not leaning above-average this fall. That doesn’t mean it will be cold, necessarily; it just means the forecast is less clear, giving the states an equal chance of seeing a warm, cool, or normal winter season.

The precipitation outlook is flipped, however.

Many of the same states expected to trend warmer are also more likely to be dry. A large, W-shaped swath to the south – from California to Florida and north to New England, as well as a group in the central Plains – are leaning toward above-average rain. Florida and its nearby neighbors from the Gulf to the East Coast, as well as southern California and Arizona, have the highest probability.

Meanwhile, portions of Montana, Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Alaska have the highest probability of a dry winter.

These forecasts are roughly what is expected during a typical El Niño year, with the dividing line across the country shifting depending on the position of the jet stream.

Earlier this month, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in its latest update that El Niño “strengthened further last month,” with “a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely” from January through March.

“Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” the latest guidance from the CPC explained . “With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed.”