Most in new poll want major change in midterms

Most voters want major change in Washington ahead of this year’s midterms, a new AP-NORC poll finds.

Overall, a combined 80 percent of registered voters say they want either “complete and total upheaval” or “substantial change” in the way the country is run. That includes 97 percent of Democrats, 90 percent of independents and even a majority — 58 percent — of Republicans. Just 13 percent of Republicans said they wanted “complete and total upheaval,” however.

The new poll comes amid a midterm environment likely to be poor for Republicans. President Trump’s job approval in the AP-NORC survey is at just 36 percent, with 64 percent disapproving.

Because Republicans control the House and Senate, voters seeking major change may look to the main alternative: the Democrats. Registered voters surveyed in the AP-NORC poll preferred Democrats to control the House by a 9-point margin, and the Senate by an 8-point margin.

But in the survey, Democrats are barely more popular than the president, with just 4 in 10 having a favorable view of the Democratic Party.

The general anti-incumbent sentiment could explain mixed poll results in the Senate, which show both parties on weak footing in some usually reliable states.

In Kansas for example — a state Trump won by 16 points in 2024 — nonpartisan election data site Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, has Sen. Roger Marshall (R) in a close race with pastor Adam Hamilton (D). In DDHQ’s forecast, Marshall has a 65 percent chance to win reelection, but trails by 0.9 percent in the average of polls.

Democrats in Minnesota also find a closer than expected race. Former Vice President Harris won Minnesota by 4 points in 2024, but despite the Democratic lead nationally, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) leads former NFL reporter Michelle Tafoya (R) by just 3.7 points in DDHQ’s polling average.

Minnesota Democrats have been under fire for months after some Republicans, including Trump, blamed Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) administration for a healthcare fraud scheme in the state in which 15 people were indicted. Polls suggest that Flanagan, Walz’s lieutenant governor, could have taken a hit for the scandal.

DDHQ still gives Flanagan an 82 percent chance to win.

Voters in the AP-NORC survey also do not expect politics to improve, having little faith in either party or the direction of American politics.

Just 21 percent are very or somewhat optimistic about the future of the Democratic Party, and just 23 percent for the future of the Republican Party. For the state of politics in the U.S., just 10 percent say they are optimistic. Sixty-seven percent are somewhat or very pessimistic.

The AP-NORC survey was conducted Oct. 8-12 among 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters. The margin of error among adults is ±3.9 points, and ±4.2 points among the registered voters.