Will Democrats abandon Florida after Nixon win?

▪ Democrats face uphill fight in Florida

Florida Democrats are warning national party members not to abandon the state in November after democratic socialist Angie Nixon defeated moderate Alex Vindman in a shocking upset in Tuesday’s Democratic Senate primary.

Shortly after Nixon’s victory, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the Florida Senate race from “likely Republican” to “safe Republican.”

“This was always going to be a heavy lift for Democrats, but following the primary, we are moving Florida’s Senate race back to Safe Republican,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s analysis read .

The election handicapper noted the “silver lining” for Democrats is that donors might be less inclined to waste money on a state that Democrats have struggled to win in recent years. The party last won a federal statewide race in 2012.

“While it is impossible to precisely dictate where donors send money, those contributions would presumably be more likely to end up in more competitive states,” the analysis added.

Several Democratic strategists in Florida, however, warned of long-term implications of reallocating resources in interviews with Morning Report.

Democratic strategist Steve Schale — who ran former President Obama ’s Florida operation for his 2008 campaign and was a senior adviser for the 2012 campaign — said it would be a mistake for Democrats to sleep on the state altogether.

He noted more congressional seats are likely to shift south after the next census and that Democrats need Florida to win control of the House.

“It’s hard for me to see a world where we get to 218 in the House with any regularity if we’re not winning districts on the I-4 corridor in Florida and winning seats in Miami, and right now we’re not,” Schale said.

He also warned of “downballot implications” of not investing in the state.

“I worry if Democrats don’t think the top of the ticket’s worth investing in, it makes it a lot harder for those folks running down the ballot to have kind of the baseline they need to win.”

Fernand Amandi , a Miami-based pollster and consultant whose firm also helped Obama’s campaign win the state in 2008 and 2012, called Florida “a state that you have to engage in if you ever hope to win the White House in the future again.”

“Part of the reason that Donald Trump has won reelection twice, in my opinion, and why the MAGA movement has grown is because Florida was basically left all alone by the Democrats and disregarded,” Amandi said.

He also noted how important Florida is to the Make America Great Again movement.

“It’s the head of the snake of the MAGA movement, where they literally all live, at least the main leaders of the party,” Amandi added. “ And it’s the laboratory for exporting MAGA concepts throughout the rest of the country in Florida.”

Sharon Wright Austin — a professor at the University of Florida, who serves as vice president and president-elect of the National Conference of Black Political Scientists — said it “would be the ultimate slap in the face for Black female voters” if national Democrats decide not to invest resources in the Senate race now that Nixon is the nominee.

“I think that it’s going to really be a wake-up call and make people who are Black Democrats really take some time to think about whether or not we should continue to support white Democrat candidates,” she said, adding, “O r maybe we should just not continue to support the Democratic Party if they’re not supporting us.”

Schale said he’s “skeptical” national Democrats would have invested many resources in Florida, even if Vindman had won the primary.

He said he has talked to fellow Democrats involved on the national level, and “ having been through a few of these rodeos with those guys, I just, I don’t believe establishment institutional Democratic world was going to be here.”

Schale noted that Democrats who hope to win statewide races in Florida will need to shrink the GOP turnout advantage, win independents by 20 to 25 points and perform better among Republican voters than their GOP opponents do among Democrats.

“I think the math is hard for Angie, I do, but, in all fairness, if you and I had this same conversation and Alex Vindman had won, I would be telling you the exact same thing,” he said.

Amandi said whether Nixon has a shot in November will depend on whether she distances herself from the democratic socialist label. Nixon officially joined the Democratic Socialists of America just a few weeks before her primary win.

“The problem with the DSA is that, for all of their respectable economic populist positions, there are some not-so-much talked about elements of the DSA blanket platform that are not just problematic or unacceptable; they’re disqualifying nonstarters for huge swaths of the Florida electorate,” Amandi said.

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The U.S. national debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time on Tuesday, according to data released Wednesday by the Treasury Department. The alarming milestone comes less than a decade after the national debt first hit $20 trillion.

An Air Force major who was arrested last month after calling for the president’s impeachment was detained again for “pretrial confinement.” The man’s attorney said the legal team is awaiting the government’s evidence ahead of a detention hearing today.

Prince Harry, Meghan Markle and their two children are moving back to Britain in the coming weeks, according to multiple reports . The return of the Duke and Duchess of Sussex comes six years after they moved to the U.S. amid a clash with members of the royal family.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) heads to a closed-door Republican policy meeting at the Capitol in Washington, June 16, 2026. (J. Scott Applewhite, Associated Press)

‘ALMOST DISQUALIFYING’ : A key senator is already casting doubt on President Trump ’s nominee to lead the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said in a post on social platform X that he has “strong concerns” about the nomination of Dr. Heidi Overton , a top White House domestic policy adviser on health issues, which was announced on Wednesday. The senator said he respects Overton’s experience as a physician, but her lack of management experience doesn’t prepare her to lead a large agency “already dealing with staffing and morale issues.”

“Additionally, Dr. Overton’s active role in last week’s nonsensical vaccine executive order calls into question her commitment to standing up for sound science and protecting children’s health,” Cassidy said, referencing Trump’s executive order to push to reduce the childhood vaccine schedule and split up the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine into three separate shots.

Overton stood beside the president as he announced the order.

“That alone is almost disqualifying,” Cassidy, who is also a physician, said.

Trump chose Overton to lead the FDA as it’s dealt with an exodus of staff and a credibility crisis in the eyes of many in the healthcare industry. If confirmed, she would succeed Martin Makary , who resigned in May .

Cassidy’s opposition alone could be enough to sink the nomination, as he chairs the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

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THIS IS FINE : Trump downplayed concerns about the U.S. bond market on Wednesday, even as the Treasury Department took extraordinary measures to reverse rising long-term bond yields.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield surpassed 5.3 percent on Tuesday, the highest mark recorded since 2007. That’s continued a trend of increases that’s taken place since the start of the Iran war.

Increasing bond yields push up mortgage rates and lead to higher borrowing costs for other products.

The spike prompted the Treasury to announce Wednesday that it will increase the maximum amount of U.S. debt that it can buy back. Starting next month, the maximum value of longer-dated securities that the Treasury can repurchase will double from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation.

Trump said he doesn’t believe Americans should be concerned about the volatility of the bond market. He reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates, calling them “artificially high.”

“They raise them for no reason, and you can’t go out to the market when you have a Fed that’s raising interest rates,” he said.

But the agency has continued to show hesitancy to lower rates, with many Fed officials indicating at a meeting late last month that interest rate hikes may be necessary.

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CUT IN HALF : The Pentagon and South Korean military confirmed Wednesday that joint exercises between them will end almost a week early following Trump’s order reducing them.

Ulchi Freedom Shield began Monday and was scheduled to continue through Aug. 27 but will now end Aug. 21, a Defense Department official told The Hill. They said the U.S. military is continuing training that “enhances tactical capability,” but live-training events have been reduced, and some events have been canceled or converted to simulations.

Trump directed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to scale down the exercise, which takes place annually, just before they started, arguing they were hostile to North Korea. He also said he made the decision over his frustration with South Korea for not assisting in the U.S. war against Iran.

Trump has also said he’s in talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to resume their diplomacy from his first term. However, Kim Yo Jong , a top adviser and Kim’s sister, denied knowledge of any such discussions in a message shared by state media.

South Korean officials have expressed concern about what this could mean for the future of the U.S.-South Korean alliance, which has been in place for decades and is meant to fend off North Korean aggression.

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ETHICS PROBE : A woman accusing Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) of misconduct told the House Ethics Committee on Wednesday that he sexually harassed and assaulted her.

Two attorneys for the woman said she was interviewed and told committee members that Gomez’s actions were not “consensual in nature,” contrary to a statement from the lawmaker that they were. Gomez told The Hill in a statement that he hasn’t violated any law or House Ethics rule.

“This is just the latest example of brazen sexual misconduct by a member of Congress,” the attorneys said. “Congress must act to rein in its members who seem to believe that preying on young women working on Capitol Hill is one of the perks of their job.”

The committee was first reported by CNN to be investigating Gomez in June following a New York Post story that he was allegedly seen kissing a younger staffer who worked for a different House Democrat in 2023. The panel confirmed on Monday that it is investigating the California Democrat.

Gomez has said he would cooperate with the investigation.

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The president will participate in a pre-taped radio interview at 9 a.m. He will participate in signing time at 2 p.m. He and first lady Melania Trump will make an announcement on Fostering the Future at 4 p.m.

The House will convene at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The Senate will meet at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma

A nurse loads a syringe with a vaccine at an inoculation station in Jackson, Miss., Nov. 18, 2022. (Rogelio V. Solis, Associated Press file)

BREAKTHROUGH : An experimental personalized mRNA-based cancer vaccine was successful at preventing melanoma from returning or spreading in a late-stage trial of high-risk patients, potentially bringing a life-extending treatment closer to the market.

Merck and Moderna announced the development Wednesday, having combined the personalized vaccine Intismeran with Merck’s Keytruda in patients who had melanomas surgically removed.

The companies said the study met the main goal of extending “recurrence-free survival,” how long high-risk patients can live without their cancer coming back, and a secondary goal of preventing cancer from spreading to other parts of the body.

Intismeran is a personalized therapeutic designed to train and activate an antitumor response based on the unique mutational identity of a patient’s tumor. It’s developed using a tumor sample to identify the signature of their cancer and generate an immune response.

The mutations are encoded in mRNA and manufactured into a vaccine.

Melanoma accounts for only 1 percent of skin cancers but causes the highest percentage of deaths. Most cancer recurrences develop in the first two to three years after treatment, but melanoma can recur 10 or more years after it was first treated.

Merck Research Laboratories President Dean Li told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the companies will likely start talking to federal regulators in the next few months.

If the vaccine is approved, it would mark a major endorsement of Moderna’s mRNA platform.

MRNA was key in the COVID-19 vaccines that rolled out during the pandemic, and the technology has been viewed by many scientists as having significant potential toward treating other illnesses.

But it has faced political headwinds during the Trump administration, as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other officials have been sharply critical of the technology. Kennedy canceled hundreds of millions of dollars in mRNA vaccine funding last year, raising concerns among public health experts.

Still, the FDA did approve Moderna’s application last week for the first-ever mRNA flu vaccine, despite initial setbacks.

▪ The Wall Street Journal : Moderna shares more than double.

A flowering agave plant can be seen on a hiking trail in Big Bend National Park in Texas on Nov. 13, 2022 (Jake Bleiberg, Associated Press)

BIG BACKLASH : The Trump administration’s effort to construct a border wall through the Big Bend National Park in southwest Texas is encountering significant resistance from locals, ranging from environmental activists to county sheriffs.

Earlier this week, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Commissioner Rodney Scott paused construction on the barriers until he “can get down there and do a personal evaluation,” amid pushback on the ground.

The Hill’s Rachel Frazin spoke to locals who are part of what Susan Hays , a lawyer who is running as a Democrat for Presidio County commissioner, called “a very organic grassroots movement” to oppose the construction.

“Our livelihoods are threatened at this point. Not just landowners, but business owners, and not just Big Bend National Park. … It’s everyone in this region,” said Yolanda Alvarado , a local cattle rancher and regional director for advocacy group No Big Bend Wall, whose property has been in her family for five generations.

“We are in line to lose a lot in our communities,” Alvarado said. “You can’t walk a mile without seeing a ‘no wall’ poster or bumper sticker. People are ready to fight back and stand up for their land.”

Outgoing Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) recently wrote a letter urging federal officials to meet with stakeholders about the issue. And in March, bipartisan sheriffs from five counties wrote a letter opposing the wall.

CBP has shifted its plans for Big Bend National Park away from the wall, opting instead for an access road lined with vehicle barriers and new detection technology. But locals were not assuaged, saying the park’s remote location and rugged terrain already make illegal border crossings difficult.

“There’s not a piece of that portion of the border where you can actually drive a vehicle across the river. We have what I like to call the God-made barriers of the Rio Grande, the cliffs, the canyons that separate us, that make it impossible,” Terrell County Sheriff Thaddeus Cleveland , a Republican and former Border Patrol agent, told Frazin.

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Baltimore is outpacing the nation on violence reduction — here’s how , Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott (D) and Anthony Braga write in The Hill.

Trump’s Donroe Doctrine is bringing Israel closer to Latin America , Arturo McFields writes in The Hill.

Construction continues on the National Mall ahead of the Freedom 250 Grand Prix, seen from the Washington Monument, Aug. 19, 2026, in Washington. (Alex Brandon, Associated Press)

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for the weekly news quiz!

One of the last major events on the calendar celebrating the country’s 250th birthday will take place this weekend with the Freedom 250 Grand Prix in Washington, D.C. So this week’s quiz will cover some fast facts about the IndyCar series coming to the nation’s capital.

Be sure to email your responses to jgans@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line.

Which of the following cities is not on the list of locations for this year’s IndyCar series?

Why was the race extended from 125 laps to 147?

3. To go around the entire National Mall

4. So the track looks like the Great Seal of the U.S.

Which of the following Cabinet secretaries was involved, along with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, in designing the course of the race?

Which of the following museums near the planned track revealed it studied the impact of the expected 185 mile-per-hour speeds of the racecars on its materials ahead of the race?