On the Ballot: Bipartisan couples face tough odds. But these pairs make it work

Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom and U.S. Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle . Democratic strategist James Carville and GOP consultant Mary Matalin . Former GOP California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Kennedy scion Maria Shriver .

These are just a few famous examples of some of the most prominent and well-known — past and present — bipartisan relationships in American politics — a phenomenon that some researchers believe make up as much as a quarter of U.S. romantic relationships.

Dating across partisan lines is no easy feat, particularly in an increasingly polarized political era. A working paper released earlier this month by two researchers at University of California, Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy suggests that bipartisan couples or “politically mismatched” pairs are 14 percent less likely to remain together between election cycles compared to those who are in “politically matched” relationships

Yet, some cross-partisan couples are still a testament to the age-old idiom that opposites do, in fact, attract.

“The best way to navigate them is to avoid them, and we’ve been pretty good at that,” Carville told The Hill when asked about how to best navigate political differences.

Bipartisan couples few and far between, research says

It may not come as a surprise that most couples share the same political party affiliation or similar ideology.

A 2025 study conducted by researchers at the University of Michigan and University of California, Berkeley around politics and romantic relationships found that just 23 percent of couples surveyed had different political party affiliations. The working paper from earlier this month by Rachel Funk Fordham and Ernesto Tiburcio found similar results: 26 percent of the couples surveyed were politically “mismatched.”

Researchers have also found a higher correlation between political party support between couples compared to other factors.

A group of American and Australian professors published research in 2011 , for example, using survey data from the mid-1980s found that church attendance, political party support and drinking habits were the areas where couples were more likely to match compared to education, smoking frequency or weight.

So how do the ones that stay together make it work? For some, like Carville, it’s spending less time talking about politics.

“It’s more, I think, the mechanics and the maneuverings of politics that we engage on and less so the issues,” Democratic strategist Kevin Walling , who’s married to Republican strategist Alex Stroman , told The Hill.

“The only real night that — and again we’ve been together four or five years — we had a whole knockdown drag out fight over Harry Reid and Mitt Romney,” Walling added, referring to the former senators.

But other couples aren’t shy about delving into the issues, even if they don’t agree.

“If we have political discussions that get heated between us … we just agree to disagree, and we don’t take things personally,” Arash Mosaleh , a senior producer at Fox News’s “Gutfield!” who’s married to Colorado Democratic strategist Ted Trimpa , told The Hill.

“You also have to be willing to go to bed sometimes still mad,” Trimpa quipped.

Bipartisan couples, too, say there’s a lot to be learned from one another, including outside the scope of politics.

“When Kevin does his broadcasting, I think most people realize that he is open to other beliefs — I joke that we are both Republican/Democrat [but] not angry about it,” Stroman texted The Hill. “We know that it is easier to bring people your way, or at least have them consider your perspective, is not by beating them over the head with why your way is right and theirs wrong, but showing your thoughts and hearts and conclusions but being open to theirs.”

(Still, Stroman maintained that Walling is “obviously politically misinformed” and that his presence greatly benefits his husband.)

For Stamford Mayor Caroline Simmons , (D) who’s married to Rodeo Cannabis Company CEO and former Connecticut state Sen. Art Linares (R), it’s learning to have empathy for why people feel the way they do.

Learning about Linares’ family’s history escaping Cuba under communism “has helped informed me as to why he is Republican and kind of leans more conservative, more skeptical of big government and overregulation,” Simmons said.

Welcome to The Hill’s On The Ballot. We’re Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil — reach out to us on X ( @jmthewriter + @CarolineVakil) or via email ( jmueller@thehill.com + cvakil@thehill.com.)

Florida voters this week delivered a major upset in the Democratic primary for Senate, nominating a democratic socialist over the moderate frontrunner.

State Rep. Angie Nixon , a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), overcame a stark fundraising disadvantage to defeat Alex Vindman, a retired Army officer who served as a witness in President Trump’ s 2019 impeachment hearings. She’ll face off against Republican Sen. Ashley Moody for red seat this fall.

“Vindman was considered the favorite by almost everybody who watched the race,” said Aubrey Jewett , a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, pointing to Vindman’s national profile, anti-Trump posture and his “enormous” fundraising haul.

Vindman had pulled in more than $16 million, as of summer campaign finance filings, while Nixon hadn’t yet hit the $1 million mark. But the centrist’s fundraising edge failed to pay off on Election Day — and Nixon won the Democratic nod by roughly 12 points.

“The victory by Angie Nixon was the big deal in Florida, and I think emblematic of what we have seen in many states and local jurisdictions around the country, with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, the socialist Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, really in ascendance.”

Nixon’s victory is the latest in a wave of progressive wins across the country this cycle, and her race against Vindman offered another test for the direction of a divided Democratic party — this time for a red seat far from the urban, blue enclaves where DSA candidates and other progressives have prevailed.

Nixon reportedly joined the DSA recently, but she didn’t lean heavily into the label along the campaign trail, and the national DSA organization did not back her bid.

“Maybe the label is not quite as important, but it still I think demonstrates that that progressive wing of the party is really at least in many states, including in Florida, this is the kind of candidate they’re looking for, and it makes up a strong majority of the party,” Jewett said.

As she pitched her progressive brand in the Senate race, Nixon brought a ground game that stood out to Democratic observers.

“Vindman raised a bunch of money, but he spent most of it raising money … It was an exceptionally low communication, low information primary,” said Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale.

Schale shrugged off the framing of the race as a win for the DSA or a defeat for the establishment, arguing it came down to the candidates’ effort in the primary. He also suggested that Vindman, while a popular figure in Washington circles, was not as well-known in the Sunshine State.

Vindman, for his part, praised Nixon’s “strong campaign” in a post after the race was called, pledging to stand by her in the fight against Moody this fall.

Nixon’s progressive win, though, does appear to make the statewide race more difficult for her party in the red stronghold. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved its rating of the Senate race toward Republicans after the primary, into “safe” red territory.

That raises new questions for Democrats about how to invest throughout Florida as the November election approaches.

“Does she have a chance? I still think the answer is yes, she has a chance, but it would be a big upset,” Jewett said.

Schale argued “the math is hard” for a Democratic win against Moody in President Trump’s home state. But he cautioned that the party shouldn’t write off Florida entirely.

“I worry if Democrats don’t think the top of the ticket’s worth investing in, it makes it a lot harder for those folks running down the ballot to have kind of the baseline they need to win,” he said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio performed slightly better than Vice President JD Vance in multiple hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups against Democratic candidates, according to a new poll. Here’s more from The Hill’s Max Rego.

Sen. Jon Ossoff has found a way to annoy President Trump . And Democrats are loving it, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports.

One of the most competitive Senate races this year is pivoting around data centers, The Hill’s Helen Huiskes reports .

As the midterm cycle heats up, we’re asking folks in the elections space what they’re consuming on and off the campaign trail.

Pete Buttigieg is a former Transportation Secretary and South Bend, Ind., mayor. He was also a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate who will … perhaps run it back in 2028? 👀

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

I just finished this incredible novel called “The Heart in Winter” by Kevin Barry. When I was visiting Butte, Mont., to work on this money and politics initiative called the Montana Plan, somebody gave it to me because it’s set in Butte in the late 19th century, and it’s just this great — I don’t know how to describe it — kind of an adventure novel.

Depends on context a little bit, but if I can only have one snack on board, then it’s going to be beef jerky.

What album or podcast do you have on repeat?

The problem is like most of what’ll come up in my Apple Music is kids’ music from the minivan. Like, our kids have become obsessed with what they refer to as “cake pop demon hunters.” So, a lot of “Takedown” and “Golden” there. I’m ready to have more grown-up music back in my rotation.

Just plain old coffee. Not picky. Gas station coffee gets the job done just as much as a nice pour over.

What TV show are you watching right now?

I’m between shows, too. I’m very excited for “Slow Horses” to come back out. I think there’s a new season coming. And then “Shōgun.”

What’s your favorite place to eat in Michigan?

That’s a political question. The ice cream place we’re pretty partial to here, so you can’t go wrong with, is Moomers, and there’s so many places right up here in Traverse City. We were just at Sleder’s, where as you deepen your Michigan experience, you may have a chance to smooch the moose at Sleder’s. I won’t spoil that for you. You can learn about that on your own.

And of course, there’s Culvers. You know, there’s been a lot of talk that Culvers is a Wisconsin thing, and I respect the Wisconsin connection. But Culvers is no less of a big deal on our side of the lake, and I’d say it counts for at least one meal a week around here.

The primary calendar is winding down after a busy August lineup.

Next week , the race to watch is the special election runoff to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) as South Carolina’s GOP Senate nominee.

His sister, Darline Graham , was appointed to fill the vacancy, and she’s running for a full term in the red seat with an endorsement from President Trump . Facing scrutiny for her lack of political experience, she faces Rep. Ralph Norman (R) in the Aug. 25 contest.

Over in Georgia, another special election runoff is underway to fill the remainder of the late Rep. David Scott’s (D-Ga.) term in the House.

Scott’s daughter, Marcye Scott , faces fellow Democrat Everton Blair to take the reins of the solidly blue district.

And in Oklahoma, the June GOP primary for governor dipped into a runoff after neither Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond nor Trump-backed rival Mike Mazzei got the support they needed to win outright.

Trump has been digging in on his support for Mazzei in the runoff run-up. The winner of the Tuesday primary runoff is all but assured to win the deep-red seat this fall.

Aug. 20: WCVB hosts Massachusetts Democratic Senate debate

Aug. 21: President Trump holds rally in Myrtle Beach, S.C., for Sen. Darline Graham

Aug. 22: Pete Buttigieg headlines South Carolina Democrats’ conference

Aug. 25: Oklahoma and South Carolina hold a GOP gubernatorial primary runoff and GOP Senate primary runoff, respectively. Georgia holds special election runoff for the late Rep. David Scott’s House seat.

Aug. 26: NH Journal holds Republican primary debate for the 1 st Congressional District

Aug. 27: NH Journal holds Republican primary debate for the 2 nd Congressional District

Republicans scramble to remake their stance on data centers ( Semafor )

13 Detroit voters disenfranchised in primary because their absentee ballots were mishandled ( Votebeat)

Bernie Sanders takes on data centers ( The New Yorker )

Shaheen fires first attack ad against Sullivan’s out-of-state, special interest cash ( New Hampshire Union Leader)