Week 5 NFL picks against the spread, predictions for every game: Packers need a win, but rival Bears are favored

Two years ago, the thought of the Chicago Bears being favored at Lambeau Field was hard to believe. Being favored with a backup quarterback was unfathomable.

But not only are the Bears favored with Tyson Bagent, it's hard to make a case for the Packers being the right pick.

Everything has changed in the NFL's oldest and most heated rivalry. Ben Johnson showed up in Chicago before last season with a confidence that belied the Bears' recent records. He called out the Packers and Matt LaFleur specifically. Then he has backed it up. The Bears are 14-7 since he arrived. They had a great comeback win against the Packers late in the regular season a year ago and a much more memorable comeback win over them in the playoffs. LaFleur is now getting constant heat from Packers fans and those losses to the Bears are a big part of it.

LaFleur is also taking plenty of blame for the Packers' malaise since Micah Parsons got hurt late last season. Counting that game in Denver when Parsons tore his ACL, the Packers are 2-7 since. This season they look like a mess. The offensive line has been terrible in pass protection and isn't opening lanes for the running game. Green Bay can't run the ball; the Packers have 232 rushing yards, which is 65 fewer than any other team. They're one of two teams with no rushing touchdowns. The defense is 24th in EPA allowed per play and success rate allowed as well. Nothing is good.

And yet, the Bears are favored by less than a field goal. Perhaps it's because Bagent was good but not great last week in his first start of the season. But the Bears ran the ball very well and dominated the Jets. The week before that they dominated the Eagles with Case Keenum at quarterback. The Bears haven't been a road favorite at Green Bay in 20 years . But it makes complete sense this week.

Nothing is a lock in the NFL, especially when dealing with desperate teams, playoff revenge and rivalries. But it's hard to make any logical argument why the Packers can beat the Bears on Sunday. Bears -2.5 is the pick. And if that happens, it'll get even noisier around LaFleur.

Here are the rest of the picks against the spread for Week 5 of the NFL season:

It's not easy to lay this many points with the Cowboys, because their defense isn't trustworthy. But we know they'll score, and the same can't be said about the Buccaneers with undrafted rookie quarterabck Jalon Daniels for another week. Daniels did as well as he could last week in his first start, but this is not a situation conducive to the Bucs going on the road for a Thursday night game and playing well.

The lookahead line last week for this game in London was Jaguars -2.5 (via 4for4.com ), and the opening line had the Eagles favored by 1.5. A lot has changed of course. The Jaguars look great; grab a future on them to win the AFC or even Super Bowl before it's too late. The Eagles have been bad, especially on offense. Philadelphia has a ton of injuries, including running back Saquon Barkley and receiver DeVonta Smith, and offensive tackle Lane Johnson just retired. Still, it's a huge five-point shift from just last week, and probably an overreaction.

At some point, the Jameis Winston house of cards is coming down. The past two weeks, the Giants have needed interceptions deep in their own territory in the final seconds to barely squeeze out wins against the Titans and Cardinals at home. It's great that they're 3-1 but it's not going to continue. Jayden Daniels returns for the Commanders this week, and that will help a 1-3 Washington team that needs a win.

The Titans trailed 24-7 against the Ravens last week at halftime, when Lamar Jackson left the game with an ankle injury. So the Titans covering the spread last week shouldn't fool anyone (they crossed the finish line to cover 11.5 points with 1:12 to go). Now they face an 0-4 Texans team that has blown three games in the final two minutes and is desperate for a win. It could get ugly.

Maybe the Saints just aren't very good. They didn't look good in getting blown out by the Falcons on Monday night. But the Vikings have their own issues. They have scored one offensive touchdown in three weeks. They didn't score any against Miami last week, which is a sin against that Dolphins team. We're not giving up on this Saints team yet, especially at home.

Is Miami getting close to being in play for an upset? They trailed the 4-0 Chiefs by just seven points with three minutes left. They lost at the 4-0 Vikings by just five points. At the very least, they're fighting. The Bengals have looked lackluster the past couple weeks and might be without Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins this week. Let's say this: Don't assume picking against the Dolphins this week is a lock in your survival pools.

If you're a believer in the Browns, that's fine. But it's probably best to skip to the next game then. The Browns have won each of their last three games in the final four minutes, which is a lot of fun. But it's probably also not sustainable. And if you buy Deshaun Watson's resurgence, that's fine too. Let's say there should be some skepticism over that continuing. Last week's Jets performance at Chicago was absolutely brutal, but teams often play well after being embarrassed. The Jets are at home against a team that is 3-1 but probably not good. There's a reason they're favored.

In most scenarios, taking the Colts and the points would be the play. But don't ignore this: Pittsburgh played last Thursday and has extra rest, while the Colts played in London last week. Rest advantage/disadvantage is a factor in the NFL.

I still think the Raiders are a good team. But it's a tough spot this week, going to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. kickoff, off an emotional loss to the Chiefs and against a Patriots team that should feel like its season is back on track after a win over the Bills. The Raiders will be fine. But this isn't the best week for them.

Yes, it's scary to back the Chargers. They've been terrible. There are offensive line injuries. They tried to paint the second half against Seattle last week as the team showing fight and heart, but it was more like the Seahawks letting up after taking a 27-6 lead. But the Broncos haven't been good either. Their offense has been stuck. If the Chargers were going to break out of this stunning slump to start the season, this might be the time.

This is a fantastic game between two of the NFL's best teams (actually the top two in our NFL Power Rankings this week ). Taking the Seahawks is just respect for them, nothing against what the 49ers have done. Though, this is the 49ers' first true road game of the season, somehow.

The point spread is about right, giving the Seahawks the full field goal and nothing more. Seattle gets the slight nod, though it shouldn't surprise anyone if the 49ers win straight up, given how they've played. The 49ers did win at Seattle in Week 1 last season.

It's going to be hard to back the Lions this season. Their defense is simply bad right now. Any team getting points should score enough to stay in the game, and even if they don't they'll always be alive for a backdoor cover. Detroit can't stop anyone. The Cardinals can move the ball, and that's bad news for Detroit.

Last week, after Lamar Jackson left the game, the Ravens got outscored 11-0 at home against the Titans. They were sitting on a big lead but it was still a reminder that the Ravens are nowhere near the same team without the two-time MVP. The Falcons might not be the juggernaut they've looked like the past two games with Michael Penix Jr. back in the lineup, but they're a hot team that presumably doesn't need to face Jackson. It's a little surprising the line isn't higher.

Another very good game to end Week 5. The Rams haven't looked like the Super Bowl favorite yet this season. Last week's game at Philadelphia was ugly for 55 minutes, at least for the offense. But the Bills defense might be a problem too. It's 26th in DVOA and 29th EPA allowed per play . That could be a great thing for the Rams offense, which has been up and down. Josh Allen could just carry the Bills to a win, as he often does, but he'll need at least some help from a struggling defense.