Lewis Hamilton can overtake George Russell for second in F1 title race as Mercedes penalty opens the door in Singapore

Lewis Hamilton has a real chance to take second place in the Formula 1 drivers' championship from George Russell this weekend. Mercedes has confirmed that Russell will start Sunday's Singapore Grand Prix from the back of the grid, and the Ferrari driver trails him by just 22 points.

Mercedes confirmed that Russell needs a new power unit after his retirement in Malaysia, as GPBlog reported in Russell hit hard by PU change: heavy grid penalty confirmed for Singapore . The team has confirmed that Russell will take the new unit in Singapore and start from the back.

After Sepang, Kimi Antonelli leads on 320 points. Russell has 236 and Hamilton 214. Russell scored nothing after his late engine failure, while Hamilton finished third after battling back from the pack, with GPblog's analysis showing how Hamilton overruled Ferrari's pit wall at Sepang and how that recovery played out to give him some momentum heading to Singapore.

Singapore is the last Sprint weekend of 2026, so there are more points on offer than usual. The Sprint pays eight points to the winner down to one for eighth place, and a Grand Prix win is worth 25. That means one driver can score at most 33 points across the weekend. GPblog used the same figure to show how Antonelli can't be crowned in Singapore but also explained how it keeps Hamilton in the hunt for second place.

To move up to second outright, Hamilton has to score 23 points more than Russell. Beating him by 22 would only put them level. Even a perfect double would take Hamilton to 247 points, so if Russell scores 11 points or more, the Mercedes driver keeps second place for at least another round.

Here's how the points would shake out in the drivers' championship in Singapore

Hamilton wins both the Sprint and the Grand Prix (33 points): Russell must score 10 points or fewer.

Hamilton wins the Grand Prix and finishes third in the Sprint (31 points): Russell must score 8 points or fewer.

Hamilton finishes second in both races (25 points): Russell must score 2 points or fewer.

Hamilton finishes third in both races (21 points): not enough, because a pointless Russell would still lead him by one point.

Lewis Hamilton givin his team the okay in Singapore. Photo: RacePictures.

The Sprint is Russell's best chance to hold on

Russell gets one opportunity to protect his position before the penalty applies as the penalty will be served in Sunday's Grand Prix, not the Sprint, so on Saturday he will start from wherever he qualifies.

That could be key because Russell has been the strongest Sprint driver this season. He has won three of the five Sprints so far, in China, Canada and the Netherlands. If he wins on Saturday, Hamilton would need second place in the Sprint and victory on Sunday, and Russell would have to finish outside the points in the Grand Prix.

Sunday is a different story as overtaking at Marina Bay is notoriously difficult, which makes starting from the back a big handicap. Russell knows the circuit well, though: he won the 2025 Singapore Grand Prix from pole position, but this season it could be too great a task.