College football prediction market picks, upset bets for Week 6

Week 6 college football prediction market picks back Alabama, FIU, Washington and Utah State as favorites, while Iowa State and Nebraska carry upset paths built on injuries, soft schedules and steady market support.

The biggest swing came in Tuscaloosa, where No. 2 Georgia opened as a 3-point favorite before No. 6 Alabama flipped the line after a 56-23 win at Mississippi State. Both teams enter Saturday night's matchup at 5-0.

FIU and Utah State have drawn the steadiest support among this week's favorites, as both spreads have climbed 2.5 points since opening. Meanwhile, Iowa State and Nebraska have each gained at least 2.5 points as underdogs.

Florida International Panthers wide receiver Maguire Anderson (84) runs against the Penn State Nittany Lions | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

FIU's defense has allowed 58 points through four games and held LIU to a lone field goal in a 20-3 win before the bye. "Another win, so I won't apologize for a win , but we once again did not play our best football, specifically on offense," FIU coach Willie Simmons said after the game. The Panthers still convert 47% of their third downs, while New Mexico State allows opponents to convert 42% of the time.

Quarterback JJ Kohl, a 6-foot-7 transfer from App State, suffered a grade-one MCL sprain against LIU but practiced during the off week. He also leads Conference USA with six interceptions, and FIU turned it over three times in each loss to USF and Florida Atlantic. New Mexico State (2-3, 1-0) enters off a 21-point home win over Western Kentucky, but the Aggies also committed three turnovers in losses to Hawaii and New Mexico.

Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (1) passes the ball against the USC Trojans | Griffin Hooper-Imagn Images

Iowa ran for 39 yards on 21 carries in Saturday's 31-14 home loss to Ohio State, and quarterback Hank Brown completed 12 of 27 passes for 132 yards before leaving with a mild sprain. Brown remains atop the depth chart , but the No. 20 Hawkeyes now face a short-week trip roughly 2,000 miles from Iowa City.

Washington (3-2, 0-2) has lost two straight by a combined seven points, including a 25-21 loss at USC decided by a 48-yard fumble return touchdown. The Huskies' rushing attack ranks 124th nationally , so Demond Williams Jr. has to carry the offense against a defense that allowed 8 points per game through September. Still, Washington's defense gives up 16.8 points per game, and the spread has moved from Washington -1.5 to -3 since opening.

Utah State Aggies wide receiver Eli Wood (7) celebrates after catching a touchdown pass from quarterback Grady Brosterhous (9) during the fourth quarter at Husky Stadium. | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Utah State and Washington State are both 1-4 and 0-1 in Pac-12 play, but their results against a common opponent favor the Aggies. Utah State lost 16-14 at Washington, while Washington State fell 24-10 to the Huskies in its opener. The Cougars also lost 26-6 at home to Fresno State last week, and quarterback Caden Pinnick has five interceptions against three touchdown passes.

Utah State coach Bronco Mendenhall's team has its own problems after an opening loss to FCS Idaho State and a 37-18 defeat at Boise State. "I haven't cracked that code," Mendenhall said of his team's mistakes in Boise. However, receiver Eli Wood has 388 yards and four touchdowns, and the Aggies host a Washington State offense that has scored 13 points across its last two games.

Iowa State Cyclones running back Aiden Flora (21) breaks through the West Virginia Mountaineers' defense for a touchdown during the second half at Jack Trice Stadium. | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

No. 8 BYU is 4-0, but last week's 17-10 win at TCU was tied 7-7 at halftime, and running back LJ Martin left with an injury . Quarterback Bear Bachmeier has 704 passing yards and six touchdown passes, and he scored twice on the ground in Fort Worth.

First-year Iowa State coach Jimmy Rogers' Cyclones (3-2) lost 16-13 at Iowa and 31-17 to Utah, then rebounded with a home win over West Virginia. Iowa State also leads the all-time series 5-1 and is 3-0 in Provo, though BYU won 41-27 in Ames last season. The spread has dropped four points since opening and the total has fallen to 46.5, which points toward the low-scoring game Iowa State needs.

Nebraska Cornhuskers wide receiver Jacory Barney Jr. (2), quarterback Anthony Colandrea (10), wide receiver Kwazi Gilmer (3) and running back Mekhi Nelson (13) wait with teammates | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Nebraska (5-0, 2-0) is off to its best start since 2016 and has scored at least 30 points in every game. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea accounted for 346 yards and three touchdowns in a 48-23 win over Maryland, including a career-high 108 rushing yards. "We're going to make people defend our quarterback ," Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said Monday.

No. 7 Indiana carries the nation's longest active winning streak at 21 games, and quarterback Josh Hoover has 15 touchdown passes without an interception. However, Jeff Sagarin's ratings place the Hoosiers' schedule 103rd nationally and the Cornhuskers' 111th, so neither team has faced an opponent like this one. The spread has also dropped 2.5 points since opening, and Indiana's defense hasn't seen a quarterback run game like Colandrea's.

Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams (1) celebrates with offensive lineman Jackson Lloyd (77) and quarterback Keelon Russell (12) after scoring a touchdown against the Mississippi State Bulldogs | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Alabama hasn't scored fewer than 45 points in a game this season, and Keelon Russell has thrown 10 touchdown passes in his last three starts. The sophomore quarterback is completing 71.2% of his passes for 1,414 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions, which moved him into the top three of this SI Heisman Trophy tracker .

Georgia hasn't allowed more than 20 points in a game and has outscored opponents 70-7 in the first quarter. "This version has just jumped all over people ," Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said of the Bulldogs.

But Georgia hasn't won in Tuscaloosa since 2007, and Alabama's defense leads the SEC with 13 takeaways. DeBoer's teams have won two of three meetings with Georgia coach Kirby Smart, including a 24-21 win last season before Georgia took the SEC Championship Game 28-7.

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