Missouri vs Ole Miss Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

One of three ranked SEC matchups this weekend is #13 Missouri (5-1) headed to Oxford, MS for a battle with the #9 Ole Miss Rebels (4-1). Ole Miss routed Vanderbilt 52-17 last week following the bye week and couldn't have looked more crisp. Missouri on the other hand smoldered Texas A&M 27-6 and ran for more yards (247) than the Aggies had as an offense (216). Missouri is 7-1 all-time against Ole Miss as the last meeting was in 2019. Ole Miss' lone win in the series came in 1974, 10-0!

We can surely expect more than 10 points in this game as both offenses looked good last week. Missouri has ran for 467 yards and five touchdowns over the last two weeks with Jamal Roberts totaling 433 of those yards and all five scores. Ahmad Hardy has not returned to practice, so it's been an opportunistic year for Roberts.

This game is also a headliner quarterback Austin Simmons following his transfer from Ole Miss. Simmons has been fantastic for Missouri. He has a 14:1 TD to INT ratio after tossing his first pick of the season last week, plus a 64.8 completion percentage and 1,474 yards. Simmons was injured at Ole Miss and never saw the field as a starter for the Rebels again. Simmons was replaced by Trinidad Chambliss and we all know how that turned out.

If the season ended today, Ole Miss would more than likely be in the college football playoff. The Rebels outgained Vanderbilt in yards last week 409-343 and forced four turnovers. The Rebels defense had its best showing against a P4 opponent holding the Commodores to 2.8 yards per carry, four punts, and two turnover on downs.

The offense received a boost with Kewan Lacy returning to the lineup. Lacy ran for 39 yards and a touchdown on seven carries in the first half as Pete Golding eased him back into action. The Rebels ran for 196 yards and three scores, while Trinidad Chambliss accounted for one of those on top of airing it out for three touchdowns and 213 yards. Ole Miss looked like a contender out of the bye week, but Missouri is a step up in completion and playing well with their 1-2 punch of Simmons and Roberts.

Let's dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Missouri vs Ole Miss

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings :

Moneyline: Missouri Tigers (+185), Ole Miss Rebels (-225)

Head Coach: Eli Drinkwitz 2026 Record: 5-1 (2-1) Offensive Points Per Game: 35.8 (33rd) Defensive Points Per Game: 16.6 (25th) 2026 Strength of Schedule: 43rd 2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 2nd

Missouri ran impressive in the win over Texas A&M. The Tigers ran for 247 rushing yards and the Aggies had 216 as a team. Missouri posted 394 yards of offense and had 20 first downs to Texas A&M's 10. Missouri scored on five out of 10 drives starting from the second quarter and Jamal Roberts had back-to-back 200-yard rushing performances. Roberts is the hottest running back in the country right now with 211 and 222 rushing yards against Florida and Texas A&M, along with five touchdowns. Roberts has four games of 100-plus yards this season and scored in five out of six games.

Missouri Player to Watch on Offense: QB Austin Simmons

Austin Simmons is set for a revenge game against Ole Miss and the guy who replaced him; Trinidad Chambliss . This will be fun! Simmons has looked great for Missouri and threw a season-high 340 yards against Florida two weeks ago. Simmons has four multi-touchdown games and tossed three scores against Kansas and Mississippi State. He wasn't asked to air it out early in the season, but over the past three games he's averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game compared to 22.6 in the first three weeks. If Jamal Roberts can't find running lanes, then Simmons will surely be dropping back 30-plus times and looking to take matters into his own hands late. Simmons has 11 rushing attempts on the season and hasn't scored a touchdown on the ground yet. He's a sneaky anytime touchdown bet.

Versus a DI opponent, Missouri allowed a season-low in yards last week to Texas A&M at 216. Only 27 of those yards came on the ground as the Aggies were held to 1.2 yards per carry and no touchdowns. Missouri picked off Marcel Reed twice and held him to 19-of-39 (48.7%). Missouri ranks tied for 13th nationally with 3.0 sacks per game and ranks tied for 9th with 18 sacks on the season. The Tigers grabbed three sacks last week are they're coming into the week at 31.2% on third downs (26th). Missouri held Texas A&M to 4-of-18 last week on third downs (22.2%). Missouri will be bringing the pressure, but Chambliss thrives under duress. It should be a fun to watch the chess match between Missouri's edge rushers and Chambliss.

Missouri Player to Watch on Defense: EDGE Deaden Hopkins

Deaden Hopkins has only played in four out of Missouri's six games, but boy has he made his presence felt. Hopkins has at least a 0.5 sack in all four games, including Texas A&M last week. Hopkins had a career-high 3.5 sacks at Mississippi State after posting 1.5 sacks versus both Troy and Kansas, plus a forced fumble and recovery in both too. If you catch yourself going "who was that" or "that was close to being offsides"; it's probably Hopkins off the ball you're talking about.

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Head Coach: Pete Golding 2026 Record: 4-1 (2-1) Offensive Points Per Game: 38.8 (23rd) Defensive Points Per Game: 28th (T-108th) 2026 Strength of Schedule: 16th 2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 9th

Ole Miss came out the bye week swinging! The Rebels scored 52 at Vanderbilt and 409 yards of offense. Ole Miss ran for 196 yards and Kewan Lacy made his return in limited fashion. Three different players ran for a touchdown, including Trinidad Chambliss . The star quarterback tossed three touchdowns and 213 yards on 20-of-30 (66.6%), plus the rushing score. The Rebels average 300.6 passing yards per game (15th), but 104th in rushing yards per game (133.2). Luckily, Missouri's weak spot is their secondary as they rank 71st in coverage grades as to the 21st rush grade on defense.

Ole Miss Player to Watch on Offense: RB Kewan Lacy

Kewan Lacy only had seven carries in his return following the bye week, but had an efficient 39 yards and a two-yard touchdown. Lacy broke off a 19-yarder in the first quarter and that was the only other highlight as he didn't receive a carry in the second half. Pete Golding say he wanted to slowly bring back Lacy last week, but with a ranked matchup versus Missouri, we can expect at least double-digit touches for Lacy this weekend.

The Ole Miss defense forced four turnovers at Vanderbilt on two interceptions and two fumbles. The Rebels grabbed a pair of turnover in each half and held Vanderbilt to a punt, turnover, or turnover on downs on nine out of 12 drives minus a kneel down. It was the best defensive outing of the year against a P4 opponent. Ole Miss grabbed three sacks and eight TFL, plus forced three fumbles. Missouri has had a lot of success on the ground in the last two games and Ole Miss allowed 2.8 yards per carry to Vanderbilt as the Rebels rank 59th in rush defense grade per PFF.

Ole Miss Player to Watch on Defense: DE Blake Purchase

Blake Purchase is coming off a season-high 2.0 sacks at Vanderbilt to take the team lead of 3.5. Purchase has a sack in three out of five games (Louisville, LSU, Vanderbilt) and forced his first fumble of the year against the Commodores. Purchase is at 6.5 TFL and is a game or two away from surpassing his career high of 34 tackles with Oregon last season.

Ole Miss and Missouri Stats, Betting Trends

Ole Miss is 1-1 ATS, 2-0 on the ML, and 2-0 to the Under at home

Missouri is 1-1 ATS, 1-1 on the ML, and 1-1 on the total as the road team

Missouri is 19-17-1 ATS and 11-26 on the ML as an underdog with Eli Drinkwitz

Missouri is 7-12 ATS and 2-17 on the ML as a road underdog with Eli Drinkwitz

Missouri is 13-6 to the Under as a road underdog with Eli Drinkwitz

Missouri is 21-16 to the Under as a underdog with Eli Drinkwitz

The Tigers are 9-20 on the ML and 13-15-1 ATS versus ranked opponents with Drinkwitz

The Tigers are 17-12 to the Under versus ranked opponents with Drinkwitz

The Rebels are 2-0 to the Over versus ranked opponents with Golding

The Rebels are 2-1 on the ML and 1-2 ATS versus ranked opponents with Golding

Missouri is 7-1 all-time versus Ole Miss

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans Ole Miss to cover:

"Missouri historically under Eli Drinkwitz hasn't performed versus ranked opponents or as a road underdog. Missouri is 9-20 on the ML and 13-15-1 ATS against ranked opponents and 2-17 on the ML as a road underdog (7-12 ATS). Ole Miss' offense looked crisp out of the bye week at Vanderbilt; and that's without Kewan Lacy at 100-percent. If Ole Miss can slow down Jamal Roberts just a bit, then the Rebels should cover the -5.5. I doubt Missouri wants Austin Simmons in a shootout with Trinidad Chambliss as much as Simmons wants that."

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