Trump takes blow in Brazil; faces new challenge in Venezuela

President Trump ‘s South America policy suffered setbacks on Sunday as a key ally took a stunning defeat in Brazil and Venezuela’s top opposition leader returned to her home country to challenge its Trump-backed leader.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pulled off a decisive comeback to win another term as president in its runoff after having trailed in the first round of the election earlier this month. Lula defeated right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro , the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro , who is serving a prison sentence for his role in attempting to overturn the last election’s results.

Trump hadn’t directly weighed in on the race, but the younger Bolsonaro’s election would have elevated another Trump ally in South America, which has seen a rightward shift in its elections in recent years.

Right-wing leaders have won presidential elections in several neighboring South American countries in just the past year — José Antonio Kast in Chile, Keiko Fujimori in Peru and Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia. All of them have pushed for closer relations with the Trump administration.

But that trend was bucked in Brazil, where Lula has shown resistance to working with the administration on its priorities.

One of those key points of tension has been Lula’s refusal to join the U.S. operation to target drug cartels in Central and South America.

Lula warned in May after the U.S. designated Brazil’s two largest criminal factions as terrorist groups that this could become a pretext for U.S. intervention.

“We don’t accept being treated like children,” he said, maintaining that Brazilian forces would fight the groups themselves.

Tensions have also sparked over the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally whom Lula defeated for reelection in 2022. Just as Trump has refused to acknowledge his loss in the 2020 presidential election, the older Bolsonaro refused to accept his defeat.

Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed Brazil’s government buildings in the capital in an insurrection responding to Lula’s inauguration in January 2023, an incident that drew comparisons to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot in the U.S. Bolsonaro was ultimately prosecuted over the coup plot and handed a 27-year prison sentence.

Trump has levied significant tariffs on Brazil to get the country to stand down in its prosecution of Bolsonaro, but these attempts have been unsuccessful.

The younger Bolsonaro is also refusing to concede his loss to Lula, calling for the results to be annulled. He’s pointing to a late court decision that ordered the polling times to be extended by two hours in response to issues with voter transport.

Trump hasn’t responded yet to the results of the election. At the same time, he’s now facing a more complex situation in Venezuela, where he has been working with a more friendly leader since U.S. forces deposed and captured former leader Nicolás Maduro in January.

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returned to her home country Sunday after 10 months in exile.

This marks Machado’s first appearance in Venezuela since Maduro’s ouster. Maduro’s vice president Delcy Rodríguez has served as acting president since then, with America’s backing.

Rodríguez hasn’t changed many authoritarian policies of the Maduro regime internally, but she has made agreements giving the U.S. greater access to Venezuela’s vast array of oil reserves, a key priority for the Trump administration.

Trump has a complicated relationship with Machado. He has supported her movement to challenge Maduro in the past but has declined to back her to become Venezuela’s new leader, arguing she “doesn’t have the support” she needs within the country.

Machado has made strides to develop her relationship with Trump, presenting her Nobel Peace Prize medal to him in January, an award that he badly wants. But that hasn’t changed his posture in who should be leading Venezuela.

Her return to Venezuela will almost certainly up the pressure on Rodríguez to hold elections and put the Trump administration in a complicated spot between an ally and the current leader of the country, who has proven pliable to U.S. demands.

Machado has previously said she would run for president if elections are held in Venezuela before the end of the year. Rodríguez has not yet scheduled elections since taking over, even as her presidency was only supposed to be a short-term measure.

“Estoy aquí. Con ustedes,” Machado wrote in a post on the social platform X addressed to the Venezuelan people, which translates to “I am here. With you.”

▪ BBC : Crowds welcome Machado home after months in exile.

CALL FOR NOMINATIONS : The Hill is currently collecting nominations for its annual Top Lobbyists list, made up of the most influential folks in Washington. Know a lobbyist who moved the needle this year? Nominate them for The Hill’s Top Lobbyists here by Nov. 6.

Trump confirmed he is considering moving the White House press briefing room from its longstanding location to somewhere else so he can use the spot for “badly needed space.” He previously denied a New York Times report that he spoke to aides about moving the room to bring back the indoor swimming pool that was covered decades ago to make space for the briefing room.

A federal appeals court appeared resistant to immediately agree to the Trump administration’s push to segregate 20,000 California ballots it says are likely noncitizen voters. The panel seemed skeptical that it needed to direct a trial judge to move quicker on the issue.

Serbia’s strongman leader Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat in parliamentary elections Sunday to a new political grouping called Student List-Students Win. “It is clear that we have lost these elections,” he said, in a surprisingly gracious statement after two years of battling student-led street protests .

SOUTHERN HOSPITALITY : The president’s midterm campaign tour will move down south today when he rallies with Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) in the historical Republican stronghold of Mississippi.

The rally was a late addition to Trump’s final blitz. Hyde-Smith is seeking to fend off a challenge from Democrat Scott Colom and is favored, but Democrats nationally see some chance of pulling off an upset.

The Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC has announced it’s spending $1.2 million on a television ad for Colom. The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund is meanwhile spending more than $1 million to defend the incumbent.

Insiders can read more here from The Hill’s Julia Manchester about how the race is becoming a test of Trump’s turnout machine among Republican voters in a ruby red state.

Trump’s visit will come after a busy weekend, which he wrapped up in Michigan on Sunday with a rally for former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), who is running for Senate against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed .

Former President Obama campaigned in Michigan and Ohio for slates of Democratic candidates on Saturday, ripping Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the war in Iran.

▪ The Hill Insider : This Week: Trump, Obama lead final push before election.

▪ The Hill : Why a blue wave might miss Minnesota’s Senate race.

SHAKEN UP: Alaska Senate Democratic candidate Mary Peltola announced she would reschedule campaign events after she was in a car crash that resulted in minor injuries .

The campaign said the vehicle that she and her family were traveling in to a campaign stop was struck by another driver.

“Mary and her family sustained minor injuries but are in good spirits. Unfortunately, per the advice of medical professionals, Mary’s upcoming events in Fairbanks and Bethel will be rescheduled for later in the week as she takes time to recover,” wrote Cheryl Bruce , Peltola’s campaign manager.

“Mary is disappointed that the accident is delaying the start of her Alaska Always Tour, and she is eager to get back on the campaign trail to speak directly with Alaskans about her plan to take on the rigged system and lower costs for working families,” he added.

She will begin campaigning again Tuesday with a stop in Homer, Alaska.

The Anchorage Police Department said, “The circumstances of the collision are under investigation.”

READY TO GO : The U.S. military has drafted plans to potentially strike Iran following the midterms, a source aware of the plans told The Hill’s Filip Timotija .

The source said U.S. Central Command (Centcom), which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East, has plans ready to conduct follow-up strikes if it receives authorization from the White House. Centcom has multiple options for strikes in place, another source said.

Direct strikes against Iran have been on hiatus while the U.S. has focused on economic pressure to extract concessions from Tehran. Trump has personally warned the U.S. could attack again after the elections amid stalled diplomatic negotiations.

Iran’s economy is in tatters amid economic sanctions and U.S. naval blockade. However, Tehran has shown no signs of caving to U.S. demands. And Americans are feeling the pain too, with soaring oil and gas prices driving broader inflation.

▪ The Hill Insider : Trump’s farm lifeline won’t fully solve farmers’ diesel problem.

▪ Reuters : Iran has ramped up efforts to target U.S. personnel.

The president will meet with U.S. Ambassador to France and Monaco Charles Kushner at 1:30 p.m. He will travel to Corinth, Miss., to deliver remarks at 7 p.m. EDT and then return to the White House.

The House will convene at 12:30 p.m. for a pro forma session.

The Senate will meet at 5:30 p.m. for a pro forma session.

WHY WAIT : Early voting is surging in several key battleground states as Democrats hope to build a firewall ahead of Election Day that will advantage them in the midterms.

Morning Report co-writer Sarah Fortinsky reports that more than 23 million ballots have been cast nationwide , as of this weekend, compared with more than 15 million at a similar point in the 2022 midterm cycle.

The increase, which includes both in-person and mail-in ballots, has been driven by a 47 percent jump among registered Democrats and a 60 percent jump among unaffiliated voters. Early voting among Republicans is up 2.6 percent.

A New York Times analysis of state election records and voter data through Thursday showed early voting was up 69 percent in Kansas, 41 percent in Maine and 24 percent in Iowa — crucial states in the battle for Senate control.

“It’s the same pattern. Democrats and unaffiliateds are engaged. Republicans are not as engaged,” Michael McDonald , a political science professor at the University of Florida who tracks early voting, told Sarah. “And it explains why you might be seeing this shift of the battleground into these red states. Overall, there’s just more engagement among Democrats.”

Still, there are limitations to how much can be extrapolated from the data. McDonald noted that various factors can affect states’ early voting numbers, including changing timelines for when mail-in ballots are sent out.

Not all states record party registration, and a voter’s registration doesn’t guarantee which candidate they will support.

▪ The Hill : 7 nastiest moments of a mean campaign season.

▪ The New York Times : Trump casts early ballot.

SEARCH UNDERWAY : Police in Florida are on the lookout for tips leading to the arrest of those responsible for a mass shooting that injured 12 people over the weekend, including six children.

The shooting happened Saturday outside Bragg Memorial Stadium in Tallahassee over Florida A&M University’s homecoming weekend. Police said no arrests had been made as of Sunday, but they are working to identify who is responsible and have set up a tip line for people to submit information.

“We know there are people who saw something, heard something or may have video that could help us piece together exactly what happened,” Tallahassee Police Chief Lawrence Revell said. “We need our community’s help. No detail is too small, and no piece of information should go unreported.”

Officials said a preliminary investigation indicates that a fight broke out before the shooting in a crowded area as people were leaving a football celebration. Eleven of the 12 victims received gunshot wounds, and six were hospitalized as of Sunday morning, including one in critical condition.

The university said on social media that the shooting happened near its campus and that it remained safe.

▪ ABC News : Dad who took down Oregon shooter speaks out.

▪ PBS : Two doctors present new ideas to prevent gun violence.

How America can bring film and television production home , James Babbin writes in The Hill.

Europe is running out of other people’s money , The Washington Post editorial board writes .

And finally … The NFL’s first-ever game in France went off smoothly Sunday even as protests continue to rage in Paris and other parts of the country.

Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike McCarthy said players “really enjoyed” their time in Paris when they arrived Friday but stayed close to the hotel as more protests took place Saturday, ESPN reported .

More than 400,000 demonstrated all around the country as part of backlash to school funding and a rising cost of living. The Paris march started mostly peacefully but descended toward the end into clashes with police.

Some expressed concern ahead of the game about possible security issues, and Trump said it could have been postponed . But the game went on without interruption, and the Steelers defeated the New Orleans Saints, 16-10.

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