What to know about Trump’s deep red campaign blitz

President Trump is set to embark on a five-state swing through traditionally friendly Republican territory starting today, kicking off a midterm campaign push with Election Day just a little more than a month away.

Some of the states where the president is heading are home to among the most hotly contested races this year. But as The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports , he’s also raising some eyebrows with trips to deep-red states, including Alabama and Nebraska.

Republicans say there are benefits to be reaped from Trump’s visits to energize the base broadly, even if some of the visits are to states that are friendly to him.

Here’s a rundown on Trump’s upcoming stops:

The president’s tour will get started Thursday afternoon when he visits a manufacturing facility in the city of Denton, located in the northern part of the state.

Trump will visit Peterbilt Motors Company’s factory and tout his economic record, including what he describes as the resurgence of American manufacturing.

While Texas is a red state, it’s also the site of an extremely competitive Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). Polls have shown Talarico ahead; if he wins, it would be a huge victory for his party, which has not held a Senate seat in Texas since former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen served.

Talarico needs to overcome a Republican onslaught that’s been focused on helping to boost Paxton, with Trump’s super PAC spending millions to support the Republican nominee in recent weeks.

Democrats are also hopeful they can make gains in the House in Texas. A GOP redistricting effort was supposed to make that difficult, but with Hispanic voters moving away from the GOP, Democrats think they have some opportunities.

Trump’s visit to Oklahoma is unique in that — with less than five weeks to go before Election Day — the president is going to a state not seen as a battleground, even if a massive blue wave were to come.

The trip taking place later in the day Thursday will be Trump’s first to the Sooner State since 2020. He sent a welcome message to the state in a video posted to the social platform X ahead of the stop.

Oklahoma does have a pair of major statewide races this year with an open gubernatorial race and a Senate race following Markwayne Mullin ’s resignation to lead the Department of Homeland Security. The state has five House races, but none of them are expected to be competitive.

All five are rated as “solid Republican” by the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report.

Trump is following up the Oklahoma visit with another visit to a bright red state on Friday, going to Mobile for a rally at the University of South Alabama.

The state also has Senate and gubernatorial races that aren’t expected to be competitive. A Republican source told Manchester previously that Trump’s visits to the red states aren’t indicative that the races are competitive, noting Oklahoma and Alabama are close to the Texas and Florida media markets, respectively.

But at least one House race could potentially come into play in November.

Rep. Shomari Figures (D) is attempting to overcome long odds after state Republicans redrew Alabama’s congressional lines to help the party pick up a seat. Figures’s current district includes Mobile, though the district will be based in the state’s southeastern quadrant starting with this year’s elections.

While that race isn’t likely to determine which party wins the House majority, if a major Democratic wave emerges, Figures may have a slim chance of overcoming the gerrymander and winning a House seat.

Democrats are hoping to win back the governor’s mansion and a Senate seat in Ohio.

Trump will travel to Vandalia, which is just north of Dayton, to stump for Sen. Jon Husted (R), who is trying to fend off a comeback attempt from former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

The former senator narrowly lost his reelection bid two years ago despite Trump’s comfortable victory in the state, and Democrats are hopeful that Brown is exactly the right candidate to win a seat back.

Meanwhile, Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy are locked in a close race for the governor’s mansion. Ramaswamy had been one of Trump’s rivals in the 2024 Republican primaries but became one of his close allies, giving Trump a personal connection to the state.

Nebraska comes off as a state in line with Oklahoma and Alabama given its solid red history, but this year it seems like it could be in play.

Democrats are once again throwing their support behind Independent Dan Osborn , who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in 2024. Now, he’s trying again against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

Osborn has said he wouldn’t caucus with either party, but Democrats want to take Ricketts out. Trump is expected to tie the independent candidate to the left during his remarks.

Senate Democrats on Thursday blocked legislation sponsored by Ricketts to restrict members of Congress from buying new stocks of publicly traded companies. The Senate GOP scheduled the vote on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which failed to meet the 60-vote threshold in a 53-47 vote, to help Ricketts.

Osborn has accused Ricketts of profiting from his stock portfolio, and the bill is an effort by Ricketts to play defense but also go on offense against Democrats for blocking the measure.

Nebraska is also home to a key House race. Democrats are counting on flipping Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District on their road to winning back the House majority.

Former Nebraska Rep. Hal Daub (R) , who used to represent the district, said Trump’s visit is about making sure Republicans aren’t sleeping on the midterms.

“The president’s trip is designed, I think, to energize that particular set of voters to be sure they cast their absentee ballot or turn out in the polls here in about 30 days, and I think that’s going to be positive,” he said. “I think on balance, that’s going to be positive.”

There are more opportunities on the board for Democrats to flip GOP-held seats than those for Republicans to flip Democratic-held seats in this cycle. But there are chances for the GOP. For a deep-dive look at where Republicans might win back some seats, subscribe to The Hill Insider and read Julia Mueller’s story on the 10 Democratic-held House seats most likely to flip.

▪ The Hill : The Republicans backing Democratic candidates in the midterms.

For a one-stop shop for all polling and forecast data ahead of the midterms: The Hill now has a new webpage tracking the numbers from our partner, Decision Desk HQ. The page shows which party is favored in the House and Senate, governor’s races, the president’s approval rating and more.

Click the link here to explore everything from The Hill’s Election Center.

Trump heads to Oklahoma today to kick off a travel sprint to the midterms. Oklahoma is a handful of politically red states the president will be visiting in the coming days, which also includes Florida. I asked Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) if he has any concerns about the president visiting Republican strongholds down the stretch.

“No, I mean, he’s going to go out and he’s got a lot to brag about. He can talk about how much he’s cut taxes, how we’re adding jobs, how the economy is growing,” Scott told me. “I think it’s great that he’s going to go out there and campaign and help our candidates,” he added.

Republicans had been planning at this point to sell their tax bill heading into November, but what’s currently rising to the top for voters are things they didn’t anticipate when the bill passed last year: war, high gas prices, and inflation that just won’t go away.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6 p.m. EDT/5 p.m. CDT on NewsNation.

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) ordered the scheduled execution of Christa Pike to be halted for at least the rest of the year after two attempts to execute her by lethal injection failed Wednesday night. Lee ordered an investigation into what occurred as Pike was still recorded to be breathing after receiving two doses of pentobarbital. The botched execution followed a legal fight that saw the Supreme Court on Wednesday night allow Pike’s execution over the objections of the three liberal justices.

Pennsylvania recorded its fifth measles-associated death on Wednesday, amid an ongoing outbreak that has become the worst Pennsylvania has seen in more than 35 years. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has refused to accept the state’s death count, instead counting only its second measles-related death this week.

The Senate voted to confirm Keith Sonderling to be permanent Labor secretary in a 47-41 party-line vote, filling a vacancy in Trump’s Cabinet. Sonderling, who is generally seen as employer-friendly, has been serving in the acting role since his predecessor, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, resigned earlier this year amid investigations into her and members of her family. The Senate adjourned for the midterm elections not long after the vote. We’ll get into that below.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) walks with reporters as he heads to a closed-door GOP lunch, at the Capitol in Washington, Sept. 30, 2026. (J. Scott Applewhite, Associated Press)

GOING HOME : The Senate adjourned Wednesday after holding its final votes before the midterms in November, leaving a laundry list of unfinished legislative items that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has decided to punt until after Election Day.

The day was marked by a couple of high-profile legislative blocks by Democrats, who argued the GOP-backed bills did not go far enough. But in blocking the legislation, Democrats were also depriving GOP candidates of legislative victories.

The first example was the Ricketts legislation on stock trades, while the second bill, the Ratepayer Protection Act, was backed by Husted.

Husted has come under attacks from Brown, his Democratic opponent, over the building of data centers in Ohio. That bill also failed to meet the 60-vote threshold in a 57-43 vote after four Democrats joined Republicans to back the legislation seeking to address voter concerns about data centers and energy costs.

The data center bill requires utility regulators to consider adopting a federal standard that would hold large companies responsible for the costs of new energy infrastructure used for data centers, rather than passing those costs onto consumers.

Democrats argued in both cases that the bills didn’t go far enough.

“Only Senate Republicans would dare call a bill that permits members of Congress to continue to own, sell and, in some instances, buy stocks a stock-trading ban. They can’t be serious. The Republican bill is a permission slip for corruption, not a stock-trading ban,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on the Senate floor.

But make no mistake, election-year politics were also in play in both cases.

There were some examples of bipartisanship on Wednesday.

The Hill’s Rachel Frazin has a look at senators’ long-awaited permitting reform deal, which Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) announced yesterday after months of negotiations. They say the agreement will speed up the construction of the nation’s energy and infrastructure projects while reining in costs from data centers. Subscribe to The Hill Insider for Frazin’s reporting on the negotiation process, what the White House is saying and where senators go from here.

Thune has left several must-pass pieces of legislation to the lame-duck, The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports , noting senators will only have four full weeks when they return in November to pass the farm bill, FISA reauthorization, the annual defense authorization bill, 12 regular appropriations bills, a permitting reform bill, and an emergency supplemental defense spending package for the Pentagon, whse stockpile of weapons and munitions has been depleted after months of war with Iran.

▪ The Hill : GOP wrestles with rising data center backlash weeks before midterms.

▪ The Hill : Senate panel advances Trump surgeon general nominee.

▪ The Hill : Paul blocks push to unanimously pass Kids Online Safety Act.

STATE OF THE FORCE : Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth invited governors to bid for their states to host the “next great American” base built in the U.S., during his “State of the Force” speech at the Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia.

“We’re calling on every governor in the country and adjutant general, every tag across this great republic, to step up to the plate and bring us their best sales pitch,” Hegseth told junior officers and enlisted leaders gathered to hear his address, the second year he’s given such a speech.

“If your state wants the honor of hosting 15,000 to 25,000 of America’s great troops, show us why and how you’re going to do it, cutting through the red tape, offering up the land, and rolling out the red carpet for our military families,” the Defense secretary continued.

Hegseth also announced the 20 percent reduction in its generals and admirals, which the Pentagon had previewed the day before, and touted his efforts to rid the military of “woke” culture.

Hegseth said he is creating a four-star combatant command for autonomous warfare, which will overhaul the way the Pentagon buys and deploys drones and robotics. He also announced efforts to study the future of warfare, a task that would be helmed by SpaceX and xAI CEO Elon Musk , Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.).

▪ The Hill : 7 takeaways from Hegseth’s address to officers.

▪ The Hill : Hegseth announces 5 new non-Ivy League partnerships.

▪ Business Insider : The military that Hegseth wants for the next war.

‘STRONG INDICATIONS’: United Kingdom Prime Minister Andy Burnham said there are “strong indications” Iran was involved in the security incident Sunday near the U.S.-run military air base in England.

“There are strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened over the weekend at RAF Fairford, but of course it remains an ongoing, complex, and serious police investigation,” Burnham told the BBC in an interview yesterday.

Burnham said U.K. and U.S. forces are working closely together on the investigation into the incident, which saw five men arrested on suspicion of explosives offenses and planning an act of terror, before they were released on bail the next day. Police said they found some accelerate, gasoline, in the vans but no explosives.

Burnham said he would update the public “in due course.” Iran has denied involvement in the incident.

▪ The Hill : Iran urges Americans to rally against Trump ahead of the midterms.

▪ The Economist : Has Iran lost its grip on Gulf oil exports?

NO REASONABLE GROUNDS : The Federal Reserve’s internal watchdog found no evidence of criminality in its probe into the institution’s handling of its multimillion-dollar renovation project, breaking with the Department of Justice (DOJ), which had launched an investigation into the Fed’s former chair, Jerome Powell .

The report released Wednesday from the office of Inspector General Michael Horowitz acknowledged that the Fed hasn’t “effectively executed” the construction management risk contract for two of its buildings in the nation’s capital. But the report said no reasonable grounds were found to suggest any federal law had been violated.

Horowitz opened the investigation in April at the recommendation of Jeanine Pirro , the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia. Pirro had led an investigation into Powell for months before she handed it off to Horowitz in the face of bipartisan pressure.

Powell had hit back against the DOJ and the president, accusing Trump of using the investigation as a prelude to get him to be more aggressive in lowering interest rates.

Trump slammed Powell after the report came out, calling on him to resign from his post as Fed governor. Powell’s term as chair has since come to an end.

The president said he’s instructing Attorney General Todd Blanche to “study” the report and “make a determination as what to do” concerning the cost overruns.

▪ The Hill : Fed’s preferred measure of inflation dipped in August.

▪ CNBC : How Chinese spies targeted the Fed.

The president will depart the White House to travel to Denton, Texas, for a site visit at Peterbilt Motor Company at 4:05 p.m. EDT. He will travel to Durant, Okla., to deliver remarks at 7 p.m. EDT. Later, he will return to Washington.

The Senate will meet at 10:30 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The House will convene at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session.

Pages from the U.S. Affordable Care Act health insurance website, healthcare.gov, are displayed on a computer screen in New York, Aug. 19, 2025. (Patrick Sison, Associated Press file)

CHECKS IN THE MAIL : The White House has begun mailing out $500 refund checks to about 1 million Americans who the Trump administration says were overcharged for their insurance through ObamaCare.

An administration official said Treasury Department checks will start going out to Americans across 30 states that use healthcare.gov, the federal marketplace where users can sign up for ObamaCare health insurance.

The move comes as the administration is looking for wins on healthcare and affordability with Election Day fast approaching.

“For years, the Biden administration overcharged you to fund the operation of HealthCare.gov,” Trump wrote in a letter accompanying the checks that was shared with The Hill. “That money belongs to hard-working Americans, not the Government, and now I’m returning it to you!”

Direct payments to consumers are a key part of Trump’s healthcare plan. He’s promoted taking money away from ObamaCare subsidies and providing it back to Americans to let them pay directly for insurance.

The announcement came weeks after a task force led by Vice President Vance revealed it plans to remove close to 760,000 people from Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage because of allegedly fraudulent enrollment.

The president also unveiled a platform called TrumpRx in February as a resource for consumers to download coupons for certain drugs to take to pharmacies and receive discounts.

But the refund checks will only help a small subset of people. There are 19.2 million people enrolled in ACA coverage, and people who still get premium subsidies aren’t eligible. People who live in the mostly blue-leaning states that operate their own exchanges also aren’t eligible.

Most of the recipients of the checks will be for people who earn 400 percent of the federal poverty level, meaning $64,000 for a single person or $132,000 for a family of four.

These individuals no longer receive financial assistance to help them afford premiums as the enhanced ACA subsidies expired at the end of last year.

▪ The Hill : Red state challenge mail-order abortion shield laws.

An FlyDubai plane carrying Israeli passengers who had earlier been aboard another FlyDubai aircraft that made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia approaches Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv, Israel, Sept. 30, 2026. (Ohad Zwigenberg, Associated Press)

MIDFLIGHT DIVERSION :Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a pilot aboard a diverted Flydubai flight was arrested after allegedly stabbing his co-pilot, forcing others on board to interfere to prevent the plane from crashing.

The flight was headed to Tel Aviv but was diverted to Saudi Arabia, where officials are interrogating the suspect, Netanyahu said yesterday. All passengers landed safely.

“During the flight, as they were approaching Israel, one of the pilots stabbed the other pilot, and apparently attempted to crash the plane with everyone on board,” Netanyahu said, according to an unofficial translation of his remarks. “Additional flight crew on board entered the cockpit and managed to stabilize the aircraft.”

The flight dropped 14,000 feet in less than a minute, according to an altitude path by Flight Radar, before a passenger “managed to break into the cockpit together with one of the crew members, and … together they neutralized the pilot who carried out the stabbing while he was attempting to sabotage the aircraft’s systems,” Netanyahu said, recounting a conversation he had with the Israeli passenger.

Netanyahu said he has “instructed the security establishment to prepare for additional potential threats” in Israel and Saudi Arabia.

While Netanyahu characterized the incident as a highly severe security incident, some Israeli officials took a step further, including Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who called the incident an alleged attempted hijacking by a “terrorist.”

▪ The Hill : What to know about Flydubai cockpit clash as pilot is arrested.

▪ Al Jazeera : Timeline of how the emergency unfolded.

Medicare should help doctors prevent disease, not just pay for it , Rep. Gregory Murphy (R-N.C.) writes in The Hill.

Debunking political fearmongering over data centers , former Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Colo.) writes in The Hill.

Iraqi security officers flash victory signs as they ride on vehicles decorated with national flags and ribbons during a convoy celebrating the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, in Baghdad, Iraq, Sept. 30, 2026. (Hadi Mizban, Associated Press)

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for the weekly news quiz!

U.S. Central Command announced the complete departure of U.S. forces from Iraq on Wednesday, ending 12 years of deployment that began in response to the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. This week’s quiz will look back at some of the key points of the conflict that took up much of U.S. foreign policy since the turn of the millennium.

Be sure to email your responses to jgans@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line.

Which of the following members of Congress did not serve in Iraq?

Since the start of the 21st century, roughly how many years has the U.S. not had troops stationed in Iraq?

What was the hole where Saddam Hussein was found in called?

By what year did the Islamic State lose essentially all of its territory in Iraq?