Mississippi Senate race becomes a test of Trump’s turnout machine

President Trump’s campaign stop in Mississippi on Monday is putting the ruby-red state in the spotlight as Democrats grow optimistic about their chances in the state’s Senate race.

The Republican National Committee said Wednesday that Trump will headline a rally in the city of Corinth in northeastern Mississippi. Meanwhile, the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC announced it will spend $1.2 million in a television ad touting Democrat Scott Colom, who is challenging incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.). The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund is spending more than $1 million in an effort to defend Hyde-Smith’s seat.

Colom, for his part, has taken advantage of the upcoming presidential campaign stop, challenging Trump to a debate.

The race is still an uphill climb for Mississippi Democrats, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rating the race as “likely Republican” after the election handicapper notably moved the race from “solid Republican” toward Democrats.

Democrats say they see some cause for hope in the state amid Trump’s poor approval ratings, while Republicans look to replicate their national turnout strategy in the deep-red state.

“I don’t think Republican voters are going to go vote for Scott Colom in any big number,” said Austin Barbour, a Mississippi-based Republican strategist.

“What they could do is they could say, ‘Hey, I’m not showing up that day,’” Barbour added.

The move to deploy Trump to northeastern Mississippi is notable, given the region is highly saturated with the president’s supporters. Corinth is located in the state’s 1st Congressional District, which the president carried with 68 percent of the vote in 2024.

Trump’s Mississippi visit follows a number of trips from high-profile Democrats meant to galvanize the party’s base.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) have all made stops in Mississippi this month.

Former President Obama, arguably the Democratic Party’s strongest turnout asset, separately cut a 30-second ad for Colom.

The visits from Obama, Harris, Warnock and Booker are seen as part of a strategy to galvanize Mississippi’s Black voters, who make up 36 percent of the state’s population. That’s the largest of any state.

“African American voters tend to vote 90-plus percent for Democratic candidates,” Barbour said. “If you’re down voting in Mississippi, you start out with a significant voting bloc, so it’s a turnout game as every election is.”

Barbour argued that the national attention from Democrats, along with Trump’s visit, is enough to wake up the state’s Republican base, including low-propensity voters.

“They also are starting to realize just because we’re pissed off, that doesn’t mean we can just stay home, or skip this race and allow a guy who admittedly says he’s a far-left candidate, represent Mississippi in the United States Senate,” he said.

Mississippi-based Republican strategist Hayes Dent noted the presence of the national Democrats could backfire.

“If Scott had really wanted to win the race, and if the Democrats had really thought that this race was competitive, you wouldn’t have seen those folks campaigning in Mississippi,” Dent said.

However, Dent acknowledged there was still a high level of frustration among Republicans over Trump’s economic policies and the Iran war.

“When you go and tell everybody you’re going to get us out of wars, you’re going to drain the swamp, you’re going to cut gas prices, you’re going to do all of this, and none of that is occurring, people get frustrated,” Dent said.

Like other states, Mississippi’s agriculture sector has also been hit hard by high fuel prices.

Average diesel prices in Mississippi reached a record high of $6.06 per gallon last month, and today they sit at $5.86, according to AAA .

Earlier this week, the state’s agriculture commissioner called on Mississippi leaders to suspend the state’s fuel tax to bring relief.

“When you layer tariffs and then put what might be a current cherry on top by saying you’re trying to harvest your crop by paying $6 a gallon for diesel fuel, your politics sort of go out the window for maybe one of the truest phrases ever, which is ‘it’s the economy, stupid,'” Dent said.

According to a Civiqs tracking poll, Trump’s approval rating in the state sits at 41 percent while his disapproval rating is at 52 percent.

Public polling in the race has been scarce, but polling commissioned by Democrats paints a rosy picture.

An internal poll released from the left-leaning Change Research showed Hyde-Smith leading Colom with 43 percent support to his 40 percent, with a 3.5 point margin of error. A poll from the progressive Data for Progress released in August showed Hyde-Smith leading Colom with 44 percent support to his 38 percent, with a 3-point margin of error.

The state also recently saw a highly competitive statewide race in 2023, where Gov. Tate Reeves (R) defeated Democrat Brandon Presley by just more than 3 points.

Democrats are also pointing to other traditionally red states in the South that have shown movement toward Democrats including Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina.

However, unlike those states, Democrats note Mississippi would prove much harder to flip.

“I think it’s going to be closer than normal,” said one Democratic strategist. “But still a hard piece of candy to eat.”

The Republican Senate campaign arm called Colom “out of touch” for campaigning with Harris in the state.

“Scott Colom is a Chuck Schumer-backed, George Soros-funded, Transgender Defender so out of touch with Mississippi that he is campaigning with Kamala Harris, who lost the state by 22 points,” said Samantha Cantrell, regional press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

A GOP official brushed off the notion there was any concern about Mississippi, calling Democratic spending in the state “a pipe dream.”

“The easiest way to extinguish any doubt is to hold a rally and energize Republican voters,” the GOP official said.

“We’re confident Mississippi will stay red and any Democrats or anonymous Republican operatives who tell you otherwise are high on their own supply,” the official added.