Ray Dalio says the US faces a debt crisis ‘in three years, give or take two.’ 5 things Americans can do now

Billionaire Ray Dalio warned last week that the U.S. is heading for a major debt crisis, likening the nation to a person on the verge of a heart attack.

The Bridgewater Associates founder wrote in an August 21 LinkedIn post that a $4 billion U.S. debt buyback , combined with rising bond yields , a weak dollar and a Japanese sell-off of U.S. bond holdings all point to a potential government debt crisis, which can result in "the equivalent of an economic heart attack that comes when the constriction of debt-financed spending shuts down the normal flow of the economic circulatory system."

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Dalio wrote that the U.S. will see around a $2 trillion budget shortfall this year, with $11 trillion in debt service payments. Earlier this month the U.S. topped $40 trillion in debt for the first time.

"I am confident that the government's financial condition is at an inflection point because, if this is not dealt with now, the debts will build up to levels where they can't be managed without great trauma," Dalio explained.

Otherwise, he added, the economic heart attack could come at any time, "hastened or postponed by policies and exogenous factors, like big political shifts and wars.

"My guess," he added, "is that it will come in three years, give or take two, if the course we're on is not changed."

The debt clock is ticking — and the consequences could hit your wallet

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, for 2026, the deficit will account for about 6% of the U.S. GDP, or $1.9 trillion.

Dalio proposed getting the budget deficit to 3% of the GDP by slashing spending, lowering interest rates and boosting tax revenue — strategies that he says "need to happen concurrently so as to prevent any one from being too large" and causing a "traumatic" adjustment.

He cautioned, though, that "good fundamental adjustments" rather than a forced approach, like the Fed pushing interest rates down "unnaturally," are key.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, however, claimed that the U.S. budget deficit has peaked under President Trump and that "We can grow our way out" of the $40 trillion debt.