Early government projection showed thousands of Americans at risk of harmful exposure after East Palestine train derailment

An early government projection on the exposure to toxic chemicals following the 2023 East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment indicated that the incident could have put thousands of Americans at risk, according to documents obtained by a watchdog group.

The incident, which became a political flashpoint, spilled chemicals including vinyl chloride , which is used to make plastic, into the town near the border with Pennsylvania.

Vinyl chloride can break down into other potentially harmful chemicals phosgene and hydrogen chloride .

The government projected in the days following the accident that exposure to those two substances could pose significant harm, the documents obtained by the Government Accountability Project reveal.

The day after the train derailment, the federal Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center projected that 17,972 people may be exposed to phosgene and 312 may be exposed to hydrogen chloride at levels “that could possibly result in at least severe injury.”

It projected that 1,901 people could be exposed to phosgene and 185 could be exposed to hydrogen chloride at “hazard levels that could possibly result in death.”

It does not appear that those figures were revealed to the public, though people living nearby the derailment were ordered to evacuate .

In the hours and days that followed, the interagency model projected that dramatically fewer people were at risk.

Nevertheless, critics say that the government should have informed the public about the initial projections.

“The government modeled thousands of casualties, then buried the maps and let residents walk back into the plume,” Lesley Pacey, senior environmental officer at Government Accountability Project, said in a written statement.

“It took a whistleblower declaration and six federal agency FOIA requests before DOD [Department of Defense] produced what the public should have been told from the beginning,” Pacey said.

Asked about the projections, a spokesperson for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said that its personnel were on-site “within hours of the derailment.”

“We remained transparent to provide the community with the most up-to-date information via our website, welcome center, community meetings, newsletter and more. EPA continues to provide information to residents about long-term site monitoring,” said the spokesperson, who did not sign their name to the statement.

The spokesperson added that the initial model, which was created at the agency’s request, “assessed an absolute worst-case scenario” and said that as it collected more information, the government produced updated models.

They said that the models were shared with state and local officials.

A spokesperson for the Federal Emergency Management Agency said that the agency “cannot speculate on prior officials’ motives, but communities facing hazardous materials incidents deserve timely, accurate, and transparent information.”

The spokesperson, who also did not sign their name to the statement, described the incident as “yet another Biden cover up at the expense of the American people” saying “these documents raise serious questions about what the Biden Administration knew, when it knew it, and why the public was not given the full picture.”

Dan Tierney, spokesperson for Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) said in an email that the projections were made before the evacuation was ordered and said that evacuating the area “would have dramatically reduced any potential impact.”

Tierney added that subsequent modeling “did not show widespread areas affected at a level that would suggest serious health consequences.”

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s (D) office said that since the derailment occurred in Ohio, Pennsylvania did not have jurisdiction over the site. The Shapiro administration noted that the modeling was an initial worst-case scenario and that later modeling showed more limited impacts.

The incident became highly politicized, as President Trump lambasted the Biden administration’s handling of it and criticized then-President Biden for not visiting the town until a year later .

The Biden administration had defended its actions and blamed Republicans for lax regulations .