SEC carnage: How a deep, versatile conference could force a 3-loss team into the CFP

Texas football 's four SEC games to date this season have been decided by a combined 16 points. Steve Sarkisian says that's not a coincidence considering the Longhorns' schedule.

Texas' head coach is now in his sixth year with the program, a stretch that includes three seasons in the Big 12 before Texas' 2024 move to the SEC. The new conference brought a whole new world for Texas. Yes, the Longhorns lost multiple conference games with Sarkisian in both the Big 12 in 2021 and 2022 and the SEC in 2025 and 2026. But a closer look reveals a true chasm in conferences.

6:30 p.m. Saturday at Royal-Memorial Stadium.

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The best of the SEC (Georgia) pummeled the best of the Big 12 (TCU) in a 65-7 rout to win the 2022 national championship. The SEC sent three programs to the College Football Playoff in 2024 and five teams to the CFP in 2025, two years in which the conference won a combined eight playoff games. The Big 12 sent just one team to the CFP in each of the last two seasons. Neither registered a victory. Arizona State fought valiantly in a double-overtime loss to Texas in January 2025. Texas Tech then reached the CFP one year later, but lost to Oregon 23-0 last New Year's Day.

The Longhorns' uneven play is one culprit for their middling performance in conference competition. Sarkisian noted a different factor Monday, highlighting an issue that plagues programs across the SEC.

"The transfer portal does two things," Sarkisian said. "One, there's a lot of really good players spread out on a lot of rosters. There's always been good players in our conference; now, more than ever, people have depth and they're versatile. We've got new players too, and we might not have the same depth that maybe the SEC top tier teams had in the past.

"The combination of those two things, I think, adds up to more opportunities for teams to knock teams off if you're not playing your best football that day. Just about everybody's good enough to beat anybody in our league."

Sarkisian said his roster isn't equipped to overpower Texas' fellow SEC foes. The sentiment is echoed by even his most imposing players.

"I think the best (defensive) linemen in the country play in this conference," Texas center Connor Roberston said Monday. "There's no bad teams in this conference. Every week you got to be 100% prepared and focused."

Texas defensive tackle Hero Kanu came to Texas in 2025 after three seasons at Ohio State. The Big Ten, another Power Four conference, is the home of the last three national champions (Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan). The Longhorns' man in the middle still sees the SEC as a different animal.

"This is an any-given-Saturday league," Kanu said. "If you don't go and show out, you're going to lose. You better come prepared every single week."

Texas placed its CFP hopes in precarious position with losses to two unranked SEC teams. The road doesn't get easier in the coming weeks. Texas has five games left, all conference matchups. Three are on the road. A question now looms over the both the Longhorns and the rest of college football: Could a three-loss team qualify for the playoff?

History isn't exactly in Texas' favor. The 12-team CFP has included only one three-loss team in each of the last two seasons, both with extenuating circumstances. Clemson qualified in 2024 after winning the ACC. Alabama qualified in 2025 after recording a third loss in the SEC championship game.

Sarkisian would, of course, prefer the easiest path to the CFP: five successive wins to close the regular season, a scenario in which Texas would likely be playoff-bound regardless of whether it won, lost or sat at home during the SEC championship. But the path to the CFP with three regular-season losses looks more possible by the week. Three two-loss teams (Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss) enter this weekend within the top 12 of the AP poll. The nation's slate of contenders will continue to stack losses by the week, presenting an increasingly complicated picture for the CFP selection committee.

There are just two SEC programs (Kentucky and Georgia) with fewer than two conference losses and they each have three games remaining agaisnt teams ranked in the AP Top 25.

Sarkisian lobbied for Texas to reach the playoff last season, arguing that Texas' challenging schedule made up for its three regular-season losses. A similar pitch could be made this year, though perhaps to greater effect. Texas defeated then-No. 1 Ohio State in September and has logged wins over top-25 teams in Tennessee and Ole Miss, and additional ranked wins could come in upcoming games against LSU and Missouri.

Texas won't be blemish-free when it presents its CFP case. That might not matter in the sport's current era, in which more leeway could be given to teams facing the SEC gantlet.