NFL Week 8 Survivor/Eliminator Picks

The Chargers were 9.5-point favorites against the Cardinals in Week 1, and they were at home. The Seahawks were 8.5-point favorites against the Commanders in Week 3. They were on the road, but then the Commanders had their backup quarterback on the field. The Texans were 9.5-point favorites against the Giants in Week 7, and they were at home. All three lost. Also, all three were my NFL Survivor picks for that week. This isn't to defend myself, exactly, but I refuse to say the picks I made were bad picks. They should have won, dammit. But they didn't. If you followed me so far … well, whoopsie. But let's clean slate it now. Perfect from here on. That's the goal. Check out my Week 8 pick for Survivor contests. And while we're here, you can use our NFL Betting Model and our Bet Tracker to make a pick for yourself.

Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. And remember — this game is "once you use a team, they're off the board," so it's not always just a matter of taking the team you think will win. There has to be some strategy. I can't pick a team I've picked before, but you might not have tailed me, so previously used teams are eligible until the end.

My favorite category — picks I can't get wrong! If you don't play, you can't win, but also I won't pick you, so woohoo for easy. (I clearly need the help.) Houston Texans New Orleans Saints New York Giants San Francisco 49ers That's four off the board.

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it's too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings . Baltimore Ravens (@ Buffalo) Chicago Bears (@ Seattle) Denver Broncos (vs. Kansas City) Detroit Lions (vs. Minnesota) Indianapolis Colts (@ Jacksonville) Kansas City Chiefs (@ Denver) Los Angeles Chargers (@ LA Rams) Seattle Seahawks (vs. Chicago) Tennessee Titans (@ Cincinnati) Some of these teams will win but you can't confidently say so, considering who they're facing. That's nine more gone, 19 to go.

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you're the second-worst team, well, I'm still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We'll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12. Arizona Cardinals (@ Dallas) Atlanta Falcons (@ Tampa Bay) Las Vegas Raiders (@ NY Jets) Miami Dolphins (vs. New England) New York Jets (vs. Las Vegas) Philadelphia Eagles (@ Washington) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta) Washington Commanders (vs. Philadelphia Eight more eliminations leaves us with 11 remaining.

Island games just get weird. I would need some very convincing evidence to pick anyone on a Thursday, or a Monday, or an overseas 9:30 a.m. ET game. There aren't many left this week, but I still want to note them. Carolina Panthers (@ Green Bay) Green Bay Packers (vs. Carolina) Two more gone, nine left. But this week, we have one extra category.

There are plenty of teams over .500 this week, enough that teams can be over .500, look good and still not be in the top 10 in our power rankings. And this week, some of them play each other. So even if they aren't necessarily among the best teams, I don't much think they're worth my mental energy. Divisional matchup, good team, scary situation. Cleveland Browns (@ Pittsburgh) Minnesota Vikings (@ Detroit) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland) And that's three more gone, leaving us with six teams — our seven contenders.

Once we're down to this small a number of teams, we're done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I'm also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Model Projection : Bills 27.34-25.38, Bills 55.1% win rate Pros : The Bills are coming off a bye and are pretty healthy, while Lamar Jackson is still banged up on the other side. Cons : We expect Jackson to be back, and this is as much a rivalry game as any divisional matchup right now.

Model Projection : Bengals 26.80-21.70, Bengals 62.9% win rate Pros : The Bengals have taken their game to a new level this year. The Titans have not done that. Cons : Maybe you want to save the Bengals for later? Or (like me) you used them already?

Model Projection : Cowboys 30.23-24.35, Cowboys 63.2% win rate Pros : The Dallas offense was really clicking against Philadelphia, and Arizona's defense isn't any great shakes itself. Cons : Dallas' defense can let you down against pretty much anyone.

Model Projection : Jaguars 26.93-20.82, Jaguars 65.6% win rate Pros : The Jags are a very good team coming off a bye and without many injury concerns. The Colts are terrible and now in fire-sale mode. Cons : The Jags still have two games against Tennessee, a game against Washington and another Colts game on the slate. Might be prudent to save them.

Model Projection : Rams 29.65-19.11, Rams 75.0% win rate Pros : There is one Los Angeles team worth a crap right now, and it's the Rams. Cons : Eventually injuries catch up with everyone (see the 49ers last week). The Chargers are terrible, so it's hard to see a path, but if the Rams just get too hurt?

Model Projection : Patriots 26.20-21.70, Patriots 61.6% win rate Pros : New England is a contender. Miami is a contender for the first overall pick. Cons : The Pats swept the Dolphins last year, but before that, they had lost four straight, eight of nine and 11 of 15 to their division foes. It's a squirrelly matchup.

Listen, I'm not having a good year. I'm taking one I feel like I can count on. There's no real way the Jags lose this game. There are a few matchups in Week 8 I feel that way about, but I stand by the idea that there's no real way the Jags lose this one. The truth is, though, that there are several good choices this week. You could have a good time delving into the honorable mentions this time around.

Los Angeles Rams (vs. LA Chargers) Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Tennessee) — if you didn't use them when I did 2026 record : 4-3 Week 1: Chargers (L) Week 2: Eagles (W) Week 3: Seahawks (L) Week 4: Vikings (W) Week 5: Bengals (W) Week 6: Chiefs (W) Week 7: Texans (L) Week 8: Jaguars