Week 1 NFL picks against the spread, predictions for every game: Should the Texans be favored vs. Buffalo?

Any good NFL defense has some level of physicality to it. Not many are as violent as the Houston Texans , however.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen knows this well. He was sacked a career-high eight times in a 23-19 loss to the Texans last season. It's rare to see Allen not in control, but it was the Texans defense that took over that game.

The Texans have a championship-level defense. There are stars at every level of it. They want to hit the opponent often and make it hurt. But defense doesn't sell as easily as a good offense, especially one with an elite quarterback. That is a reason the Bills are favored by a point in a great Week 1 matchup.

It's hard for people to pick the team with C.J. Stroud at quarterback over Allen's team. But the pendulum has swung too far on Stroud after a truly awful playoff performance against the Patriots . Last season he was 12th in adjusted EPA ( expected points added ) per play, 15th in success rate and the Texans were 18th in passer rating. That's not great but it's not at a Deshaun Watson level either. He's middle of the road. And with a defense that has a legitimate claim as the best in the NFL, average QB play is good enough to win a lot of games.

The Bills are my pick to win the AFC, but this is a tough matchup for them (and also, it wouldn't surprise me if the Texans are like the 2015 Broncos and ride a great defense to the Super Bowl). The pick is the Texans +1 . Either way, this is a really fun matchup for the opener. Unless you're the Bills offense, which has to face a scary and fierce Texans defense to start the season.

Here are the picks against the spread for Week 1 of the NFL season:

Hate to be square to start the season, but why aren't the Seahawks a bigger favorite? Seattle pounded New England on a neutral field in the Super Bowl, easily covering a 4.5-point spread, and now the spread is shorter? The Patriots should be better, though being without running back TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) won't help things. The Seahawks did lose some pieces (don't underrate the loss of offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak). However, I still trust them in this spot.

Yes, this could be overthinking the Rams' travel decisions. By now we all know what's going on: The 49ers have been in Australia since last week to get acclimated to the 17-hour time difference. The Rams will land a day before kickoff, then leave right after the game. The Rams are a smart organization and they didn't make this decision without thinking it through. Still, it seems hard to believe the Rams will be at their best given an incredibly aggressive travel plan (though others think they'll be fine, as was included in an in-depth report from Yahoo Sports' Jeff Eisenberg ). They did something similar for a trip to London and it worked with a 35-7 win over the Jaguars, but this seems like a much different challenge. Taking the points seems like the right move given this is a strange setting for an NFL game. The news that Aaron Donald won't play in the opener isn't too surprising and doesn't change much, though it's another positive for the 49ers.

Both teams were awful last season and the Titans — Cam Ward in particular — were uninspiring in the preseason. But here's a pick for the better coaching staff. I trust Robert Saleh to have his team ready. And I'll trust the beat reporters who say Ward looked much better in practices than he showed in preseason games.

It's rare I'll have a breakdown this basic: The Bears are getting an unbelievable 93% of the bets on the spread at BetMGM . I'm not very high on the Panthers this season and we know their injury issues. But I will not take a road favorite getting 93% of the bets. That's a promise.

This should be a fun one. Here's the test for the Saints, who were good in the second half last season but didn't really beat anyone either. The Lions have holes in the secondary that the Saints should be able to exploit. A touchdown spread seems like too much.

The Ravens' respect makes sense. We have kind of forgotten how good Lamar Jackson is. But what about forgetting how good the Colts were last season before Daniel Jones ' injury? There's some trepidation about taking the Colts in Jones' first game action since tearing his Achilles, though practice reports say he looks good. Also, new coach Jesse Minter was a good hire, but are we sure his defensive scheme will take hold immediately? The Colts are the biggest home underdog in Week 1 and that doesn't seem right.

The Steelers are old, but that might not catch up to them until later in the season. Meanwhile, the Falcons are starting Tua Tagovailoa after a concerning preseason. If the Steelers don't cover in this nearly perfect Week 1 setup, it might be a long season.

Let's roll out two stats. In each of Todd Bowles' four seasons as Buccaneers head coach, Tampa Bay has started 2-0. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been notorious slow starters under Zac Taylor. The Bengals have not escaped September with fewer than two losses since 2021. That all seems relevant to a sneaky fun Week 1 matchup.

It's not comfortable to pick the Browns, who are starting Deshaun Watson for some reason. But it is a talented team around the quarterback position. The Jaguars were very good last season and could easily cover, but weird things always happen in Week 1.

We'll see if the Commanders fixed their defensive issues. Working in their favor is this is Philadelphia 's first game under new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion. We're going to see Jalen Hurts under center more than we're used to. There could be a transition period, especially as the Eagles learn to play without A.J. Brown .

The brave among us will be picking the Raiders in survival pools this week. I don't think oddsmakers have fully accounted for how bad the Dolphins might be this season, even against a Raiders team that earned the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft.

While there's some discrepancy on official closing lines, Stathead says the Chargers could be the first double-digit favorite in Week 1 since 2012 . (Some books have already moved the Chargers down to -9.5.) You just don't see an opening week spread this large very often. The Cardinals will not be good, but they can put up points. They're a backdoor cover threat in every game.

The Packers were favored in this game but the lines have shifted, and rightfully so. The Vikings were 9-8 last season with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. Kyler Murray is what he is, but that's a lot better than McCarthy.

Let's keep this simple: If the Cowboys can't cover here, all that preseason buzz will go right out the window. It's only Week 1 but everyone is ready to dunk on those who were hyping up the Cowboys all offseason.

The most worn out line of the offseason was that the Broncos will regress. No kidding. They were 14-3. Only nine teams in NFL history have won 15 or more regular-season games. But the regression police have gone overboard. The Broncos are still a good team, just not one that will duplicate 14-3. Patrick Mahomes is in his first game back from a torn ACL and he's used to playing in the preseason. He didn't this year as he recovered. It wouldn't be that surprising to see Mahomes start a bit slowly, especially going up against one of the NFL's best defenses.