Week 4 NFL betting, odds: Picks against the spread, winners for every game from a blended AI model

Week 4 of the NFL season kicked off on Thursday night, as Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns improved to 3-1 on the season with an impressive 27-24 win against Aaron Rodgers' Pittsburgh Steelers as a three-point home underdog.

How will the rest of the weekend's games play out?

We used a blended model with four NFL power ratings, including ESPN's FPI and FTN Fantasy's DVOA rankings , and asked Claude to simulate the final score of every Week 4 game and give a brief write-up of why the game would play out that way. We also asked it to list the against-the-spread winner and if the game went over or under the total.

Here are the results for every Week 4 game:

Indianapolis Colts (-4, 48.5) vs. Washington Commanders ( in London )

The market has Indianapolis by four, but my ratings have it closer to a pick'em. Both defenses are bad: Indianapolis allows +19.2% DVOA and Washington +8.3%. Both teams give up about 30 points per game, so this should be high-scoring. The Colts' special teams (+9.4%) give them a slight edge on a neutral field, but Washington getting four points is the better value.

Projected score: Colts 26, Commanders 25

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-12, 42.5)

Baltimore's offense is third in DVOA (+28.1%) and scores 30.7 points per game. Tennessee is 0-3, scores 12.3 PPG and has one of the league's worst special teams units (-11.0%). The Ravens win comfortably, but the model's 11-point margin is half a point short of the spread, so the Titans cover only barely. The over is steadier: Baltimore's defense is only average, so Tennessee should reach 17 points.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 48.5)

Buffalo's offense (+37.5% DVOA) should dominate a Patriots offense that ranks last (-29.9%) after a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville. New England's defense is good (eighth), and Buffalo's (22nd) just survived a minus-four turnover game, which keeps this from being a blowout. The model's 6.6-point margin lands just past the new number, so the Bills cover by a hair. Treat it as a lean, not a pick. New England scores only 12 per game, which keeps the total near 45, under 48.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 51.5)

This is a coin flip, and Jacksonville's defense tips it. The Jaguars rank second in DVOA (+43.1%) and allow just 12 points per game. Cincinnati is good (+18.8%, seventh) but allows 21 per game and is only favored on home field. Jacksonville plus 2.5 is solid value. The total of 51 is the highest on the slate, but one elite defense points to about 47.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 44) at New York Giants

The market has Arizona favored, but its defense is 31st in DVOA (+21.9%) and allows 27 points per game. The Giants' offense is poor (-16.0%), but their special teams (+9.4%, second) can swing a close game. My composite ratings have New York slightly ahead. Both offenses are limited, so the model projects under 44.

Projected score: Giants 22, Cardinals 20

New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 43)

Chicago scores 29.7 per game and allows 17.7, and its offense is eighth in DVOA. The Bears beat Philadelphia 27-7 last week with Case Keenum at quarterback. The Jets just lost to Detroit and have poor special teams (-7.4%, 28th). The model projects a five-point Chicago win, covering -3.5. The Bears alone should score about 25, and the Jets get to 20, which clears 43.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3, 48)

Dallas has a top-five offense (+22.6% DVOA, 29.3 points per game) but a bad defense (27th). Houston is 0-3, though DVOA still ranks it 17th. My composite ratings give Dallas a slight edge, so the Cowboys' +3 is the value side. The model projects 49 total points, just over 48, which makes the over the thinnest lean on the board.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 43) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Rams' DVOA (+13.9%, 10th) is better than their 1-2 record, with a top-five defense. But their special teams are last in the league (-13.0%), and they blew a 16-0 lead to Denver. Philadelphia scores 18.3 per game after a 27-7 loss to Chicago, but it's home. With the total at 43, one extra score or a special-teams play tips this to the over, but treat it as a very thin lean.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 39) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Green Bay is the clear pick with Baker Mayfield out. The Packers' defense is the main reason, even though their DVOA is a modest +12.8%. Tampa Bay's 20.7 points per game came with Mayfield, and a rookie making his first start should score less. Jalon Daniels' rushing ability and a simplified game plan around Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving help a little. The model's 4.4-point margin clears 3.5, but only by about a point, so it's a lean. Both offenses are mediocre, but the model projects about 41, a couple of points over 39.

Projected score: Packers 23, Buccaneers 18

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5, 39)

Miami is last in every rating I used and scores just 12 PPG. Minnesota is 3-0, has the league's best defense (-30.3% DVOA) and best special teams (+12.8%), and its blitz-heavy scheme under Brian Flores is creating short fields. The model projects a 12-point win, narrowly covering 11. The Vikings' offense is weak (-25.8%), which limits the margin. Defensive or return scores push the total past 39.

Projected score: Vikings 26, Dolphins 14

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 47.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Kansas City is 3-0, fourth in DVOA and allows 16.7 points per game. Las Vegas has a good defense (-10.3%) and special teams (+5.6%), but an average offense. The model has the Chiefs winning by four, half a point short of the number, so the Raiders cover. Two solid defenses project about 46 points, under 47.5.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 42.5)

The Chargers are 0-3, have scored fewer than 20 points in six straight games and rank 31st in DVOA. Seattle has the third-best defense (-20.9%), allows 16.7 per game and is coming off its first loss in 13 games. The model projects an 8-point win, covering 7 narrowly. Seattle's offense (25 per game) should reach the mid-20s, and Los Angeles needs only about 17 to push the total over 42.5.

Projected score: Seahawks 26, Chargers 18

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 48)

San Francisco leads DVOA at +68.7%, with a historically good passing offense. ESPN's FPI makes the 49ers a 7.9-point favorite, so 2.5 looks short. Denver has a below-average offense (-6.8%) and averages 20 points per game, despite its comeback against the Rams. The model has San Francisco winning by about 6.5. Both defenses are solid, so the total lands near 47, a slight lean under 48.

Detroit Lions (-3.5, 51) at Carolina Panthers

Two good offenses meet two bad defenses. Detroit scores 31 per game but allows 31.7 (28th in DVOA). Carolina scores 29.7 per game, and Bryce Young leads the league in passing yards. The model gives Detroit just a one-point edge, so Carolina covers at home. With both defenses leaking points, the model's 53 total points beats the posted 51.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 47.5)

Both teams are in the bottom third of the league. Atlanta jumped to 23rd in DVOA after beating Green Bay, but scores only 17 per game. The Saints rate slightly higher on FPI, nfelo and DVOA, so they win, but a two-point margin doesn't cover 2.5. Atlanta's weak offense keeps the total near 46, under 47.5.