Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction: One Game At a Time For the Longhorns

It's going to be among the most interesting aspects of the final month of the college football season. The SEC probably won't have a whole lot of 10-2/11-1 teams. The College Football Playoff can rank however it wants to, but it has yet to put in a three-loss at-large team in over a Power Four program with two losses or fewer, and Texas is currently 5-2. On the plus side for the Longhorns, they beat Ohio State, Tennessee, and Ole Miss (gut feeling, it gets in at 9-3), with last week's win over the Rebels all but saving the season. Now it gets a reeling Mississippi State team that, at 4-3, has to quickly pull up out of the nose dive after three straight losses.

Texas goes on the road for three of its last four games, going to Missouri and LSU next and Texas A&M to close. Arkansas is the lone home date.

Mississippi State doesn't leave Mississippi the rest of the way, getting Vanderbilt and Auburn next.

Texas won 45-38 last year and is 4-2 all-time in the series. Mississippi State won the first meeting 54-7 in 1921.

Date: Saturday, October 31, 2026 Game Time: 7:30 PM ET TV: ESPN Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX – Week 9 Schedule, Game Previews – CFN Top 25 | Bowl Projections – Predicting the First CFP Top 25 – CFN Week 9 Expert Picks

The Bulldogs are running relatively well. This isn't the same team without star quarterback Kamario Taylor, who's out for the season, but the offense has been able to lean on the ground game a bit, averaging close to 4.5 yards per carry over the last few games. But to win, the Mississippi State defensive front has to crank up the production. The Texas offensive line gives up way too many plays in the backfield, and the Bulldogs have to know what flavor gum Arch Manning is chewing from the first snap.

No, Mississippi State just isn't the same team without Kamario Taylor, who's dealing with a bad turf toe problem. The Bulldog passing game doesn't have nearly the same pop, and the defense isn't strong enough to overcome the lack of push on offense. Texas just has to avoid screwing up. The three takeaways against Ole Miss were a must to offset the three Longhorn giveaways. The eight turnovers in the last four games were bad, the penalty problem against the Rebels and against Tennessee a few weeks ago almost proved costly, and that can't happen here. Play a clean game, get up early, and all will be fine.

Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction, Betting Lines

The Mississippi State offense is giving it the old college try, but freshman quarterback Billy Puckett – real first name Parker – is having a hard time moving the offense. It won't be anything breathtaking from Texas, but steady production will get it done with a good offensive balance in a relatively comfortable win.

Texas 34, Mississippi State 13 Latest Consensus Line: Texas -20.5, o/u: 50.5 ATS Confidence (out of 5) : 3 Must See Rating (out of 5) : 3

Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.