Michigan State Is An 8.5-Point Home Underdog. Three Keys To Win

Pat Fitzgerald and the 2-4 Spartans are still looking for their first Big Ten win of the season after losing to Illinois 38-37 in overtime last week. Michigan State vs. Northwestern now asks a defense down its top four cornerbacks and top three linebackers to slow the newly ranked No. 25 Wildcats, led by former Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles, who has Northwestern at 4-1.

Force Chiles' First Interception Of The Season

Aidan Chiles has been nearly perfect for Northwestern this season: nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Chiles also leads the Big Ten in completion percentage at 71.4% . While Chiles hasn't thrown a pick this season, he has experience throwing them in East Lansing. In 2024, he threw six of his 11 interceptions at home , and he added one more in Spartan Stadium last season before he was benched.

While the Spartans have only two interceptions this season , the one last week helped swing momentum and set up overtime for MSU. Michigan State safety Devin Vaught grabbed an interception with 1:41 left in the third quarter and returned it 37 yards to the Illinois 11-yard line. The offense responded right away, with Jaziun Patterson rushing for a touchdown on the first play after the interception.

Michigan State quarterback Alessio Milivojevic has struggled to find his groove, but he worked efficiently last week. He completed 84.6% of his passes , his first game over 80% this season, and he enters Saturday with 1,047 passing yards. He also threw two touchdowns after a three-week drought with none. If the Spartans want a chance to win, Milivojevic will need to bring his improved play from last week and not regress to his previous level.

The Spartans' injury report is already lengthy , with multiple position groups forced to start multiple backups. The cornerback room has the most absences, with four players ruled out. The linebacker room is next, with three out, including Jordan Hall. The Detroit News reported in September that Hall wears the green dot that carries coach-to-player communication on defense, and that Brady Pretzlaff filled that role when Hall was unavailable. Both are out Saturday, so it is unknown who Pat Fitzgerald and Michigan State defensive coordinator Joe Rossi will put in the headset.

Michigan State will need to remain as healthy as possible and not add names to the lengthy injury report. Especially on defense, the Spartans are already playing third-stringers and lack the depth to lose any additional positions. While injuries are hard to control, Fitzgerald will need to find the best way to keep his players safe.

How To Watch Michigan State vs. Northwestern

Matchup: No. 25 Northwestern Wildcats 4-1 (1-1) at Michigan State Spartans 2-4 (0-3)

Radio: WJR 760 AM (Spartan Media Network)

Odds: Northwestern -8.5, total 49.5 as of Friday afternoon

If Michigan State wins, it is because they can force Aidan Chiles into his old turnover ways. Chiles has worked efficiently under Northwestern offensive coordinator Chip Kelly; Pat Fitzgerald will need to get who's left of his defense ready. Milivojevic will also need to play well to match the high-scoring Wildcat offense.

While the Spartan offense may work well against Northwestern, their defense seems to be missing too many starters to slow down a Wildcat team that has scored at least 30 points in all but one game this season. Northwestern will likely win, though a high-scoring battle is possible.

Our Pick: Northwestern 38 – Michigan State 27

Michigan State's Alessio Milivojevic throws a pass against Illinois during the fourth quarter on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Michigan State's head coach Pat Fitzgerald leaves the field after the Spartans loss to Illinois in overtime on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Oct 10, 2026; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Aidan Chiles (0) looks to pass against the Ball State Cardinals during the first half at New Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)