Ohio State football updated game-by-game ESPN predictions after Week 4

Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire, and in fact, we get into it ourselves as well when the time comes, and we will throughout the 2026 Ohio State and college football season.

But if you've followed us at all, you know we like to check in on what the ESPN Matchup Predictor says about the probability of Ohio State winning each game on its schedule every week. The ESPN computers always adjust things after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time.

Now that Week 4 is in the rearview, the computer model ESPN uses did its thing and spit out a new look at the chances of the Buckeyes winning each remaining game for the 2026 regular season schedule. The Buckeyes looked impressive in a blowout win over Illinois to start the Big Ten campaign, but what other teams did too also plays a role in these analytics ESPN uses.

This year's schedule is a daunting one, with remaining road contests at Indiana, Iowa , and USC , and home games vs. Oregon and Michigan still to go.

Here's what ESPN's Matchup Predictor says for a game-by-game prediction of the remainder of the Ohio State football schedule after four weeks and how it's changed from the start. We include completed games going forward into the projected record for the Buckeyes.

Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

All-time series | Ohio State now leads 1-0

Location | Darryl K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)

All-time series | Ohio State leads 70-30-4

Location | Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa)

Buckeyes win probability | 82.9% (down from 84.5%)

All-time series | Ohio State leads 48-15-3

Buckeyes win probability | 98.0% (up from 95.6%)

Location | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)

Buckeyes win probability | 54.3% (down from 54.6%)

All-time series | Ohio State leads 80-13-5

Location | Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, California)

Buckeyes win probability | 77.9% (up from 77.2%)

Buckeyes win probability | 77.8% (down from 83.3%)

Buckeyes win probability | 91.0% (down from 93.0%)

All-time series | Ohio State leads 66-14-1

Location | Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)

Buckeyes win probability | 75.9% (down from 80.3%)

Buckeyes win probability | 88.5% (up from 86.8%)

All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.