Bold Predictions for the 2026-27 NBA Season

The 2026-27 NBA season is here, making this the last chance to get in some final forecasts before too much actual information forces a change of opinion.

Any remaining hot takes, out-on-a-limb opinions or bold predictions need to be made official ASAP.

Here, we'll fire off a handful of last-second prognostications, hoping for a hit rate of roughly 20 percent. That's about the upper limit for accuracy when you're trafficking in bold predictions. Do any better than that, and you're probably not being bold enough.

Let's get these done before the 2026-27 season tips off.

Victor Wembanyama Will Join Bill Russell

Most Valuable Player is generally an offense-first award. Bill Russell won it in 1965 on the strength of his transformative work on D, but in the 60-plus years since, elite offensive production has typically been central to an MVP's case.

In fact, plenty of objectively shaky defenders—Nikola Jokić, James Harden, Stephen Curry, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash—have had no issue winning over the years.

Kevin Garnett (2004), Tim Duncan (2002, 2003) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019, 2020) offer partial counterexamples, but all three were first-option scoring stars as well as elite defenders.

Victor Wembanyama is going to flip the paradigm this season. Predicting he will again be the unanimous DPOY feels too easy to be bold, but suggesting he'll win MVP while not rating as one of the best offensive players in the league would be a major development.

That's not to say Wembanyama is a slouch as a scorer. He's a great bet to exceed last year's 25.0 points per game. At the same time, last postseason showed he had a long way to go as a self-sufficient creator—suggesting he might be best used as a finisher instead.

This is a wager on Wemby taking his defensive excellence to yet another level while performing well enough on offense to get the San Antonio Spurs to a league-best win total. At that point, his MVP case will be undeniable.

The Sixers' Starting 5 Will Play Fewer than 20 Games Together

Joel Embiid looks to be in his best shape in years, but nobody should rule out the possibility of him missing three-quarters of his team's games like he did in 2024-25. If he has another 19-game campaign, this prediction will be correct automatically.

Even with (hopefully) much better health from the former MVP, we should expect substantial load management for both him and new addition LeBron James. The smart money would be on the Philadelphia 76ers staggering rest nights so they're not without both Embiid and James if they can help it.

Jaylen Brown has missed at least 10 games in each of the last seven seasons, Tyrese Maxey hasn't played more than 70 games since 2021-22 and VJ Edgecombe...well, he seems likely to replicate last year's 75 appearances. He's the exception to the rule.

Generally, Philly will be missing one or more members of its vaunted first unit. Ideally, that'll be because it's being careful and playing the long game in a season with a championship ceiling. A more troubling possibility is that Embiid can't stay on the floor or James finally succumbs to the ravages of time.

Either way, this group isn't going to suit up together for 20 or more games.

Yaxel Lendeborg Is the Warriors' Second-Best Player

Draymond Green is going to be in the Hall of Fame. Brandin Podziemski just signed a $110 million extension. Jimmy Butler and his five All-NBA nods will be back at some point.

None of them will matter more to the Golden State Warriors' success than rookie Yaxel Lendeborg.

We need to be clear that "success" is a relative term here. Golden State will be lucky to log 40 victories as it gets older and piles up injuries. That frailty is a huge part of why Lendeborg is so consequential. He's the outlier on a roster that otherwise lacks athleticism, physical force and, well...youth.

In Summer League and preseason play, Lendeborg showcased a downhill attacking game that no one else on the roster possesses. He dominated stretches of games with size and speed, presenting matchup problems and drawing attention in ways so few of Stephen Curry's teammates have over the last few seasons.

Competitive on defense, capable of knocking down threes at high volume and able to overpower every defender who can't match his size (which is most of them), Lendeborg will be key to alleviating pressure on Curry and keeping the score close whenever the 38-year-old superstar rests.

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Tyrese Haliburton Will Make All-NBA Second Team

Based on a small sample of preseason action, it feels like the right time to recklessly declare that Tyrese Haliburton is so back.

Roughly 16 months removed from tearing his right Achilles in the 2025 Finals, the Indiana Pacers superstar guard looked exactly like his old self in an Oct. 13 preseason tilt against the mostly whole Oklahoma City Thunder.

Haliburton frequently drove hard to his left (which required pushing off that repaired right Achilles tendon), finished with craft, was active on defense and flung the ball all over the floor with his trademark combination of precision and flair.

It was brilliant stuff, and if you were looking for any excuse to believe that one of the last few years' most delightful and transformative offensive forces still had every ounce of magic he showed when last healthy, well...mission accomplished.

Haliburton famously pushed too hard to reach the 65-game threshold for awards consideration once before, and you'd assume the Pacers will be extremely careful with him this season. At the same time, Indy already took its gap year and must be champing at the bit to prove it belongs right back in the middle of the contender conversation.

If that means playing Haliburton for, say, 66 games, then he's going to perform at a level that proves he still belongs among the league's true elite. A third-teamer in each of his last two healthy seasons, he is going to climb even higher in a triumphant return.

The Toronto Raptors Will Have the League's Top Defense

Last year, the Toronto Raptors ranked seventh in defensive efficiency and could have climbed higher if not for frequent struggles to control the defensive glass and a penchant for putting opposing shooters on the foul line.

Even if those minor issues persist, Toronto will still have the personnel and mentality necessary to finish atop the league in defensive efficiency.

Start with Scottie Barnes, who seems to be everywhere at once. He's the only player to total at least 250 blocks and 250 steals over the last three seasons. With him around, disruption will not be a problem. Add Kawhi Leonard and his vice-grip hands. Then sprinkle in some Collin Murray-Boyles, arguably the most intriguing young defensive weapon this side of Victor Wembanyama.

Jamal Shead is a menace. Ja'Kobe Walter has a 6'10" wingspan and made leaps in screen navigation last season.

In addition to the tools required for defensive dominance, the Raptors are controlled schematically by head coach Darko Rajaković, who does not understand the concept of "too much aggression." Toronto will smother ball-handlers with full-court pressure, engage with extremely high pick-up points in the half court and generally do everything possible to speed up opponents.

The Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons will all be in the mix, but Toronto is going to emerge as the NBA's most dominant defense.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com , Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass . Salary info via Spotrac .

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale .