MLB Playoffs 2026 Divisional Round Picks and Predictions for Every Series

Welcome to the next round of the 2026 MLB playoffs. It's the Division Series. Eight teams will enter. Four will advance.

Even if it's not quite Thunderdome stakes, we're getting there as the calendar advances to the World Series. And the Division Series is where things get interesting. No more cushy series of all home games for the higher seeds. No more best-of-threes. These are best-of-five series featuring at least one plane ride.

On the American League side, there's nothing but well-worn division rivalries. The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians will decide, once and for all, who is the best of the AL Central. The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays will do the same for the AL East.

On the National League side, we have a San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers matchup that none of us knew we wanted until recently. And for the first time in five years, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves are renewing an October rivalry that has had some heated moments.

Here's where the set-up stops and we get down to brass tacks. Time for some fresh predictions, both for all four Division Series and the rest of the 2026 postseason to come.

AL Division Series A: Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians

Game 1: Saturday, October 3 in Cleveland at 1 p.m. ET

Game 2: Monday, October 5 in Cleveland at 5 p.m. ET

Game 3: Wednesday, October 7 in Chicago (Time TBD)

Game 4*: Thursday, October 8 in Chicago (Time TBD)

Game 5*: Saturday, October 10 in Cleveland (Time TBD)

Regular Season Series: White Sox 7-6 with +1 run differential

Matchup to Watch: Chicago's style of offense vs. Cleveland's style of offense

They really aren't the same, and you can tell by looking at how the two sides hit home runs during the regular season:

The White Sox unsurprisingly had the better overall offense of the two clubs, outscoring Cleveland by just about 100 total runs (i.e., 98). They overwhelmed Houston in the Wild Card Series despite hitting only two homers, which accounted for four of their 13 runs.

Cleveland pitchers may have to go into shutdown mode to keep this series winnable. To this end, it can only help that Gavin Williams and company had the AL's highest strikeout rate after the trade deadline.

This is the first year in what feels like forever that Ramírez was not one of the best players in baseball. He had a .688 OPS for the year, and a dismal .598 OPS in the second half.

The latter stretch coincides with J-Ram's return from a broken hamate, and he also battled some left wrist inflammation toward the end. If you're the Guardians, your hope is that the first-round bye did his body some good.

Remember that note about how Guardians pitchers struck guys out down the stretch? That could be the deciding factor in this series, as White Sox hitters tied for the league's fifth-highest strikeout rate.

Also, don't read too much into the White Sox's victory on the road in the Wild Card Series. Daikin Park was hardly a hostile environment .

The White Sox were 36-45 on the road this year. The Guardians were 41-40 at home. It's not quite check and mate, but it at least hints toward a solid bet.

AL Division Series B: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Game 1: Saturday, October 3 in Tampa at 6:30 p.m. ET

Game 2: Monday, October 5 in Tampa at 8 p.m. ET

Game 3: Wednesday, October 7 in New York (Time TBD)

Game 4*: Thursday, October 8 in New York (Time TBD)

Game 5*: Saturday, October 10 in Tampa (Time TBD)

Regular Season Series: Rays 7-6 with -9 run differential

Matchup to Watch: The Rays vs. the sum of their parts

We know what the Yankees are all about. They hit a bunch of home runs, and they have at least two aces in Cam Schlittler and Max Fried. Maybe four, depending on your thoughts on the present-day versions of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón.

What makes the Rays such a good team is more nebulous. Something went into them winning 98 games this year, and fingers can point toward such directions as good defense, lots of contact and aggressive baserunning. Honestly, they didn't do a whole lot poorly.

However, they also overachieved their expected record by eight wins. Nothing wrong with that in the regular season, but one is always wary of teams that exceed the sum of their parts come the postseason. That one Billy Beane quote from Moneyball is a meme for a reason , after all.

The Yankees did just fine without their three-time MVP in the Wild Card Series against Boston, which was merely the latest variation on long-running theme. They have been pretty much fine without him since June.

The question nonetheless lingers if the Yankees can really take off if Judge is able to suit up for them. To this end, the slugger has vowed to be back from a calf strain "as fast as I can."

Sorry, Rays. This is ultimately indicative of trust issues with your contention model. Because even if the Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2009, what they do has a general track record of success in October more generally.

Homers and whiffs. Whiffs and homers. No matter how you order them, the Yankees can do both. Just ask the Boston Red Sox, who felt the sting of four homers and 45 whiffs in just two games in the Wild Card Series.

NL Division Series A: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Game 1: Saturday, October 3 in Los Angeles at 4 p.m. ET

Game 2: Sunday, October 4 in Los Angeles at 8 p.m. ET

Game 3: Tuesday, October 6 in Atlanta (Time TBD)

Game 4*: Wednesday, October 7 in Atlanta (Time TBD)

Game 5*: Friday, October 9 in Los Angeles (Time TBD)

Regular Season Series: Braves 5-1 with +11 run differential

Matchup to Watch: Braves hitters vs. the Dodgers' stuff

The day after the regular season ended, Paul Hembekides of ESPN posted an interesting series of stats showing how the 12 playoff offenses did against pitchers with above-average stuff.

After the trade deadline, the Braves were the worst with an OPS of .619. In that same time span, Dodgers pitchers co-led the league with a Stuff+ score of 108.

The other team tied with the Dodgers was the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Braves obviously survived that matchup. Yet their offense didn't have the easiest time doing so, and the Phillies didn't throw Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto at them like the Dodgers will.

Where were you when Ohtani last homered? This is a harder question to answer than it usually is, as you have to go back to August 18 to find the last time the four-time MVP hit one over the fence.

That's how much nagging injuries slowed Ohtani down the stretch, so the Dodgers must be hoping the first-round bye gets him right. If so, he stands to build on a career .940 OPS in the playoffs.

The Braves had the Dodgers' number this season, including in a three-game sweep that happened relatively recently in late August. So, they have that going for them.

Even so, one of these teams just plain looks superior, and it's not the Braves. Their offense seems especially ripe for a dose of humble pie, as it came into the postseason having failed to reach a .700 OPS in three of the season's last four months.

NL Division Series B: San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Game 1: Saturday, October 3 in Milwaukee at 8:30 p.m. ET

Game 2: Sunday, October 4 in Milwaukee at 4 p.m. ET

Game 3: Tuesday, October 6 in San Diego (Time TBD)

Game 4*: Wednesday, October 7 in San Diego (Time TBD)

Game 5*: Friday, October 9 in Milwaukee (Time TBD)

Regular Season Series: Padres 4-2 with +5 run differential

Matchup to Watch: The Padres vs. Jacob Misiorowski's heat

You don't just hit Misiorowski. He held opposing batters to a .157 average this season, the lowest in history for an ERA title qualifier.

He leans on his fastball 63.3 percent of the time. You would too if you averaged 100.6 mph. Which brings us to the irony of how hitters managed a .176 average against it. If given the choice, a hitter should want the heat over the secondary offerings that combined for a .136 average this season.

Unless, maybe, you're a Padres hitter. Nobody hits 100-plus mph well, but their .137 average against that kind of velocity was 21st in baseball.

It's the Brewers who have home-field advantage in this series, and the word "advantage" can't be overstated. They went 55-26 at American Family Field this season.

And yet, we all watched the Padres in the Wild Card Series. More to the point, we all heard how loud Petco Park was. Its crowd has been consistently boisterous for a while now, as San Diego is 28-6 in its last 34 home games.

The Brewers are the better overall team in this series, but that isn't going to translate into a romp. The Padres hit more home runs, for one thing. For another, the back end of their bullpen is just absurdly good.

Yet if this series goes the distance, Milwaukee will have two major advantages: three games at home and two starts by Misiorowski.

ALCS: New York Yankees over Cleveland Guardians in 5

So, the exact same result as when these two teams met in the ALCS in 2024. And would anyone really expect anything different if this is the matchup?

With or without Aaron Judge, the Yankees would pose an even bigger over-the-fence threat than the Guardians will have faced in the Division Series against Chicago. And whereas the White Sox don't have an ace, the Yankees again fall in the two-to-four range.

Heck, what's one more dunk on the Guardians? Back in 2024, even a darn near 40-40 José Ramírez couldn't swing things in Cleveland's favor in the ALCS. Barring some sort of time displacement, that guy doesn't seem likely to show up in 2026.

NLCS: Milwaukee Brewers over Los Angeles Dodgers in 4

There are two competing thoughts on best practices for predictions, and the above is an argument for following logic. No muss. No fuss. Just math, or something approximating math.

Then there's the notion that predictions are best served interesting . That's what we have with this NLCS pick, in which the Brewers would avenge their sweep at the hands of the Dodgers from last year.

No, Milwaukee can't hang with Los Angeles in a slug-fest. But unlike Yankees vs. Rays, the equalizer in this one is the Brewers' pitching. Jacob Misiorowski will be the best arm on either side, and some metrics rate Logan Henderson ahead of even Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Milwaukee Brewers over New York Yankees in 7

The Brewers cost $165.8 million. They're David, clearly. The Yankees cost $338.6 million. They're Goliath, just as clearly.

Once everything moves between the white lines, though, it's only the quality of the baseball that matters. And in case anyone needs a reminder, the Brewers won 10 more games than the Yankees this season.

What the Yankees would have going for them is the model. As with all its other matchups, the long ball forecast favors New York. Even with only 18 from Aaron Judge, it hit 69 more home runs than Milwaukee during the regular season.

Yet if any team is going to run an end-around the "Only Home Runs Win in October" decree, it's the Brewers. They outscored the Yankees this season because they did everything else besides hit home runs. They especially hit a ton of doubles (279) and stole a ton of bases (162). Nobody converted baserunners into runs like they did.

If it is the whiff that must decide this series, so be it. Brewers pitchers can play that game better than the Yankees' staff can, and they have a trump card. Their pitchers had by far the highest whiff rate (28.7) on four-seam fastballs. Yankees hitters had a bottom-10 whiff rate (23.2) against four-seam fastballs.

As of now, the Yankees have the Brewers beat in all-time World Series championships 27-0. So, go ahead and score a big one for David.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference , FanGraphs and Baseball Savant .