The US wants to manage the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants to break it

The monthlong lull in fighting between Iran and the United States ended this week with a renewed exchange of fire, dragging the region back to a dangerous – and potentially unsustainable – military stalemate. The US military struck Iran again Tuesday, prompting Tehran to attack Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait in defiance of a warning from President Donald Trump that any retaliation would see Iran “hit much harder.” The exchanges were limited, unlike the fiercer attacks that took place over a month ago, which experts say signals an unwillingness from both parties to return to full-scale fighting. “So far, both have largely concentrated their attacks on military rather than civilian or energy targets. And despite threats from senior Iranian officials, Tehran has not resumed attacks against Saudi Arabia or the UAE,” said Danny Citrinowicz, the former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence, in a post on X. Nonetheless, the current situation is perilous, with room for miscalculation that risks pulling both sides back into all-out conflict. “Neither side wants to return to full-scale war,” Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, told CNN’s Becky Anderson, adding that Iran’s disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the US’ economic pressure on the country are “increasingly becoming unsustainable” for both sides. The US president has said that he doesn’t care to negotiate with Iran. “I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement,” Trump said, adding that he likes America’s position “now much better.” But beyond the rhetoric, Americans are feeling the cost of the war amid widespread public disapproval for a conflict that reportedly had cost Washington some $40 billion as of July. In Iran, the impact of the war has been significantly more severe. The US is squeezing an already crippled economy as it struggles to sell its oil. Iranian weapon stockpiles are also likely being depleted, and citizens are struggling to access basic goods – including food and medicine. The war has rattled Americans The Trump administration may believe it scored a victory in the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday, the US military escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the waterway, marking a wartime high, according to two US officials familiar with the operations. But that hasn’t remedied the wider situation. While global oil prices dipped slightly Thursday, they remain high. The current US national average price for gas stands at $4.14 a gallon, compared to $3.19 a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association. Meanwhile, the amount of oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has plunged over recent months to its lowest level since 1983, as the Trump administration continues to deploy emergency oil to minimize impacts from the war. On Thursday, US Vice President J.D. Vance could provide neither a timeline for the Iran war to end nor a date when gas prices might sink below pre-war levels, suggesting instead it was up to Iran to conclude the conflict. On the military end, the US is burning through weapons stockpiles and deploying costly military assets. Last month, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CNN that the US military had exhausted nearly 80% of its interceptors for a key missile defense system. The US military has burned through nearly four-fifths of its THAAD missile inventory compared to pre-war numbers and roughly half of its Patriot interceptors since the start of the war, according to two sources familiar with the inventory report. Trump later claimed that the US has “massive amounts” of munitions, but acknowledged certain munitions are in “tighter” supply. The president’s overall approval rating has slumped in recent months, with many taking issue with his handling of the Iran conflict. A University of Massachusetts (UMass) Amherst poll published Monday found that over two-thirds of Americans surveyed disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war. His overall approval rating is down to 32%, according to the poll. Over the weekend, the Washington Post reported that several US military leaders have advised Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and risks weakening the US’ ability to meet threats elsewhere, citing people familiar with a recent assessment prepared for the Pentagon chief. CNN has not independently verified the reporting. Why Iran may escalate Meanwhile, in Iran, an already troubled economy is facing major challenges. Inflation rates have reached “alarming levels,” with many working-class families unable to afford basic food items, according to state-affiliated Iranian media. Annual inflation, measured over the 12-month period leading up to July, stood at 66%, according to the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA). Like the US, Iran is running through its weapons stockpiles. Arash Azizi, a US-based Iran expert, said Iran’s economy has taken a massive hit, but “the regime knows that a total capitulation could bring its downfall.” Tehran may therefore escalate against the United States, calculating that it cannot absorb the economic pressure indefinitely and needs to break the stalemate. Iran’s behavior – as well as the speed and scope of its response to the last US strikes – shows that Tehran is choosing to respond rather than yield, Hamidreza Azizi from the ICG said. That’s because Tehran cannot afford to accept the prevailing order that Trump appears to be trying to impose in the Strait of Hormuz, experts say. “The events of the past several days sharpen the picture in the Strait of Hormuz, and expose a fundamental mismatch between the US and Iranian approaches to the current confrontation,” Citrinowicz said. While Washington appears to be trying to avoid kinetic escalation and keep the conflict contained to the economic domain, Iran is pursuing the opposite strategy, Citrinowicz wrote on X. “It will continue trying to disrupt tanker traffic and challenge the US effort to establish a new reality in the Strait,” he said. Iran has repeatedly said that it is prepared to return to the negotiating table if Washington resumes its commitments under the memorandum of understanding signed in June. “I state clearly that if the United States returns to its commitments under the aforementioned memorandum of understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately reciprocate,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan. But Trump has claimed he is happy with the current position. “I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday night, after Iran retaliated following US strikes. “I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing.” Citrinowicz said on X that while both Iran and the US “understand the risks of uncontrolled escalation,” they “continue climbing the escalation ladder.” “The problem is that this equilibrium is unlikely to hold,” he said.