Trump’s tariff war with Canada threatens GOP candidates in border battlegrounds

President Trump’s tariff war with Canada is putting vulnerable GOP candidates in border states in a precarious position about 10 weeks out from the midterms, with economic anxiety already running high.

Trump’s 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports took effect on Saturday after bilateral negotiations collapsed at the eleventh hour. Trump threatened 50 percent tariffs on cars, trucks, auto parts and steel on Monday to take effect on Jan. 1, 2027.

Some strategists say the impact on Americans, particularly in states with close economic ties to Canada, will only compound GOP challenges around affordability, with voters losing trust in Republicans to handle the economy.

“This escalation and the timing of it are problematic,” Jason Cabel Roe, a Michigan-based Republican strategist, told The Hill.

“It really undermines our messaging when we’re trying to address affordability and we’re already having to deal with the price of oil due to the war in Iran. But that affordability debate only gets more complicated when we’re in a trade war with our largest trading partner, who happens to share a border with us,” he said.

Roe said the trade war could also be “an opportunity for Republicans to separate themselves from the president’s policy.”

The only GOP candidate to attempt to create that distance so far has been Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is facing a tough reelection race against Democrat Troy Jackson. She has consistently spoken out against Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods, joining three other Republicans who voted with Democrats last year to undo tariffs on Canada.

This time around, she called the escalating tariffs a “mistake” and urged officials to get back to the negotiating table.

“The on-again/off-again trade talks between the U.S. and Canada lead to higher costs, risk, and uncertainty for Maine businesses. If the Administration proceeds with these tariffs, they will increase costs for Maine families, as most businesses will have no choice but to pass on the tariffs to their customers through higher prices,” she wrote on the social platform X over the weekend.

The trade war also stands to become an issue in Ohio, where Sen. Jon Husted (R) is facing a challenge from former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), and in Michigan’s open Senate race between former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and Abdul El-Sayed (D). Democrats are also seeking to zero in on the issue in Iowa and Alaska, where they see opportunities to further expand the Senate map.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated all four races as toss-ups.

Wayne Winegarden, senior fellow in business and economics at the Pacific Research Institute, said the tariffs would make production more costly for U.S. businesses along the border, which would adjust in ways that ultimately hurt consumers and families in those states.

Vice President Vance defended the tariffs while rallying Republicans in Maine on Monday — an event that Collins skipped. He argued the administration was seeking to protect Mainers.

“I think that we need to send a message loud and clear to the prime minister of Canada: Stop taking advantage of the people of Maine. Stop taking advantage of America. It’s over, we expect fairness in our trade policy,” Vance said.

But Democrats see political opportunity in the coming repercussions of the tariff tit for tat.

“Americans are paying more for everything because GOP Senate candidates have served as a rubber stamp for Trump’s chaotic tariffs at the expense of their states. Come November, voters will hold them accountable for making life more expensive,” said Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Adrian Hemond, a Michigan-based Democratic strategist, said Ohio and especially Michigan rely on trade with Canada more than other states.

“The president’s ego may have disastrous effects for Republicans politically, but there’s no question that the economic results for Michigan and Ohio will be disastrous,” Hemond said.

Rep. Chris Pappas, the Democratic Senate candidate in New Hampshire, is using the trade war to lash out at his Trump-backed Republican opponent, former Sen. John Sununu (N.H.).

“Trump creates a mess he can’t clean up. Once again,” Pappas wrote on social media on Saturday. “John Sununu won’t speak out against it. Once again.”

“Working families are paying for this recklessness,” he added.

The Cook Political Report has classified New Hampshire’s race as “lean Democratic.”

One Republican operative told The Hill that “every candidate has to run the race that they see fit.”

“They have to break with the administration when they see fit, when it benefits the state, and their region,” they said.

Canada rejected the U.S.’s terms for a trade deal late Friday, with Prime Minister Mark Carney saying last-minute additions by the U.S. were “unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal.”

Carney said Canada would “match those tariffs dollar for dollar” starting Sept. 8 and that “additional measures” would be taken to support workers and business owners in Canada.

The collapsed deal came after weeks of intense negotiations between the U.S. and Canada.

Canada is the U.S.’s second-largest trading partner. The 50 percent tariffs that took effect this weekend impact everything from wine to hockey sticks to cement.

“Those costs are at some point going to get passed down to their consumers,” said Alfredo Carrillo Obregon, a trade policy analyst at the Cato Institute. “I don’t think something like inflation will pick up from these tariffs, but I think there’s going to be cost increases in specific sectors.”

Ontario Premier Doug Ford told The Associated Press on Monday that Canada is “all in,” and he warned Republican states would face the brunt of the country’s retaliation.

“The red states we’re going to hit hard,” Ford told reporters Monday.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the tariffs, saying, “President Trump ascended to the White House on a clear promise to the forgotten men and women of America that they would be forgotten no longer.”

“Countless American workers, farmers, and businesses have borne the brunt of America’s lopsided trade relations, including with Canada which has demanded total access to the American market without reciprocity. President Trump will never stop fighting to put Americans and America First,” he said.