Democrats weigh Israel election results amid lingering uncertainty

The results of Israel’s elections this week have left Democrats on Capitol Hill with a mixed bag of emotions.

The lawmakers say they’re heartened by the massive voter turnout, the erosion of support for conservative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the potential influence of his top opponent, retired Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, over whatever governing coalition is ultimately formed.

Eisenkot is seen as a more moderate figure when it comes to Israeli-Palestinian relations, including his vows to rein in Israeli settler violence in the West Bank — a position that aligns him with Democrats in the Capitol.

“I hope it bodes well for a coalition, a governing coalition, who reject some of what I find are the most grievous errors of Netanyahu’s time,” Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.), a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Friday by phone.

But the Democrats are also anxious about the lingering uncertainty surrounding the results, after all parties fell short of the 61 seats needed to lead the Knesset. And they’re voicing concerns about the stark national divisions reflected by the election, which was broadly viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre against Israelis by Hamas terrorists.

“One of the signs is that there’s anything but unity in Israel, and so where do they go from here?” Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), one of Israel’s most vocal congressional allies, said Friday, also in a phone interview. “Only time will tell.”

Schneider characterized Eisenkot as a more reasonable partner, citing his commitment to curbing West Bank violence by Israeli settlers.

“What they are doing is a threat to peace, and I think Eisenkot is more committed to thwarting that, and squashing it,” Schneider said. “That’s a critical thing.”

Still, Eisenkot is no liberal. And progressive Democrats are worried that, despite Eisenkot’s break from Netanyahu on issues like settler violence and the need for a deeper investigation into the Oct. 7 attack, both candidates oppose the creation of a Palestinian state — a development many Democrats consider to be a crucial part of any lasting peace deal in the region.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has repeatedly advocated for an autonomous Palestinian state as the only path to a long-term peace accord. His influence over the debate in Washington, D.C., is expected to grow tremendously, since Democrats are favored to control the House next year and Jeffries is in line to take the Speaker’s gavel.

Already, he’s promising to stage a vote on legislation to apply economic sanctions on anyone who engages in violence in the occupied West Bank, while barring them from entering the U.S. The bill has been sponsored by 175 House Democrats.

Dean is one of them. And she said the party should “absolutely” pass the bill if Democrats control the House next year.

“America needs to lead. We need to have our voices heard, and we can’t count on” Israeli leaders, she said. “We have to have some moral courage and authority to say, ‘No more.’

“This is a series of wrongs, including killing, that we must absolutely, loudly, condemn.”

Tuesday’s election in Israel was the first since the attack of Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas militants operating out of Gaza killed roughly 1,200 people and kidnapped 250 more.

The final results, unveiled Friday, left Netanyahu’s coalition with 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while Eisenkot’s bloc held 48 seats and a group of Arab parties won 19.

Democrats were quick to cheer the erosion of Netanyahu’s support, which fell from almost 70 seats before the elections.

“That was the Israeli people saying, ‘We want something different,’” Schneider said. “No one in Israel wants to sacrifice their security — that’s true whether they’re Jewish or Muslim. They all want their kids to grow up in safety and security.”

“But I think they want a change in direction from this government, which is unquestionably the most extreme government in Israel’s history,” he added. “And you saw in the election a drift away from that.”

What happens next remains unclear. The leaders of the various blocs are expected to huddle behind closed doors in an effort to forge some form of coalition that hits the 61-seat mark constituting a Knesset majority. The most likely scenarios include the formation of a unity government between the Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs.

Alternatively, Eisenkot’s group could join forces with the Arab parties, bonded by a shared opposition to Netanyahu.

If no such coalition can be built, Israel would stage another election.

In Washington, the Democrats’ approach to Israeli relations is likely to be influenced by the composition of the governing coalition and how it addresses things like settler violence.

“The actions the next government takes to address the extremist violence will most certainly affect how we look at either supporting the actions they’re taking, or putting pressure on [them] to take further action,” Schneider said.

Dean, for her part, said she’s encouraged by the rising influence of the Arab parties, whose 19 seats in the Knesset is a new high mark.

“What I do hope is, in these weeks and months coming up, more of the Arab voices and seats are heard and will change, will temper, whoever emerges as the leader,” she said.

The debate in Washington is also likely to be influenced by the incoming group of liberal lawmakers affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America. Those lawmakers have been highly critical of Israel’s human rights record toward Palestinians, and they’re expected to bring their activism to Capitol Hill.

Dean said there’s been a broader attitudinal shift toward Israel in Congress since Netanyahu began attacking Gaza, which has led to the death of more than 70,000 people. She’s excited at the prospect of having more Netanyahu critics in the Capitol.

“People were slow to separate Mr. Netanyahu from our love and support for Israel,” Dean said. “But I think we are well on our way, and I hope new members come in and help us make that argument in an even more robust way.”