Talarico leads Paxton by 3 points in new Texas Senate poll

Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico (D) is still leading his GOP challenger, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

The Telemundo /Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey found the Democrat, a Texas state representative, held a three-point advantage over his Republican opponent less than two months out before November’s midterms.

Forty-six percent of the Texas voters surveyed supported the state lawmaker, while 43 percent backed the attorney general.

Additionally, three percent of respondents indicated they would vote for Libertarian Party candidate Ted Brown, and the remaining 8 percent said they were still undecided.

Talarico notably posted a strong lead among independent respondents, 51 percent of whom said they would support him over Paxton — who garnered just 30 percent of their backing. Thirteen percent of independents said they had yet to make up their mind about who they would vote for in this race.

The state representative also had an 18-point advantage among Hispanic voters and 75-point edge with Black voters against his Republican opponent. Among white respondents, Paxton had an 18-point lead.

The Democrat has generally pulled ahead of Paxton after the Texas attorney general beat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the state’s GOP primary runoff in May. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, shifted its rating for this race from “leans Republican” to a “toss up” after Cornyn’s defeat.

Two June Siena University polls found the two candidates tied, first at 46 and then at 47 percent. By the end of July, Talarico had pulled ahead of Paxton by four percentage points in this polling center’s survey.

Paxton had a narrow one-point advantage over the Democrat in an Emerson College poll conducted in early August, earning 47 percent of respondents’ support.

Almost a quarter of Texas voters Telemundo surveyed, 24 percent, said economic factors would most motivate how they cast their vote in the midterm races. Other major issues respondents identified were inflation and living costs — amounting for 23 percent of responses — as well as immigration at 18 percent.

Economic concerns have been top of mind for voters across the nation this election cycle, amid surging energy prices during the ongoing Iran war and President Trump’s tariff fight with Canada.

The Telemundo poll was conducted among a total of 625 registered Texas voters from Sept. 8-10 with an approximately 4 percentage point error margin.