NOAA, almanacs release fall weather predictions: What could it be like near you?

(NEXSTAR) – Believe it or not, fall will be upon us soon, with the autumnal equinox less than a month away.

While it’s too early to say exactly how much of that perfect fall weather you’ll get to experience, there are forecasts that have attempted to offer some insight. We’re not talking about just the almanac predictions , either. Last week, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its long-range forecast for September, October, and November.

The three forecasts, however, don’t necessarily agree.

Last month, the Old Farmer’s Almanac put out its fall forecast, predicting a “warmer than average” fall, with a “cool, wet” outlook in the Pacific Northwest and northern New England. Much of the Plains and Rocky Mountains could see a warm and dry fall, as could some states in the central Gulf region, while the Midwest, Ohio Valley and the East Coast may experience a cool and dry fall.

The Farmers’ Almanac, meanwhile, is calling for almost the exact opposite, suggesting we’re in for a “dramatic drench.”

The Pacific Northwest is the only region that is forecasted to stay dry, while the neighboring states could see “below-average rainfall,” the Almanac predicts. States primarily in the northern two-thirds of the country will be cold through fall as the rest stay warm. The central portion of the U.S., as well as New England, could be “wet,” the Midwest may be “rainy,” and the Southeast is predicted to be “stormy.”

Both publications claim to be 80% accurate with their long-range forecasts, which are fueled by their own secret formulas, though research shows only about half of the forecasts produced by the Farmers’ Almanac were correct.

“There are those who believe [them] and those who don’t,” meteorologist Rich Segal, who recently retired from Nexstar’s KXAN, previously explained. “It’s more like a crapshoot of trusting something that far into the future since there are times the forecast is blown in the first 24 hours.”

Warmer-than-average, plus El Niño’s impact

Where the almanacs are calling for cooler weather, NOAA suggests temperatures could be above-average. In areas where the almanacs suggest it will be wet, NOAA’s forecast offers a murkier outlook.

The long-range forecast shows all but a few states leaning toward hotter-than-normal temperatures between September and November. The Pacific Northwest is most likely to see above-average weather. A handful of states, those shown in white on the map below, have about equal chances of seeing a warm fall, a cool fall and an average fall.

Several states also find themselves in a toss-up situation when it comes to precipitation.

The Southwest and Southeast are more likely to see above-average rain, while the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are more likely to be dry. The forecast isn’t very clear for everyone else. Most states have equal chances of below-average, above-average or average precipitation between now and November.

Hawaii, which isn’t shown on the maps above, has a different outlook. Oahu, Maui, Kauai and the Big Island are most likely to see above-normal temperatures this fall, before shifting to a cooler winter season in early 2027. Below-normal precipitation is increasingly likely for all of Hawaii starting in October, the Climate Prediction Center said.

The early signs of El Niño — which forecasters believe will reach the highest strength level this year — are appearing in the fall forecasts above. That’s especially true for the Pacific Northwest, which could be warm and dry, and in the South, where wetter conditions are expected. Other impacts of El Niño on fall weather include suppressing hurricane activity in the Atlantic and contributing to more high-tide flooding on the West Coast.

Even NOAA’s outlooks are subject to change. If they were released any earlier, their reliability would likely decline, Jon Gottschalck, Operational Prediction Branch Chief at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, previously told Nexstar.