Republicans may gain nothing from redistricting: DDHQ

Republicans aiming to gain seats in Congress after several GOP-controlled states redrew their congressional maps in the last year may gain nothing in the November midterm elections, according to the election handicapper Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).

DDHQ’s election forecast on Tuesday shows Democrats having a 68 percent probability of winning the House compared to Republicans’ 32 percent.

“In Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, Democrats not only achieve an average gain of 13 seats in the states with unchanged boundaries, they also gain an average of two seats across the nine states that redistricted,” DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley wrote on Substack .

Democrats won an average seat majority of 229-206 across the forecast’s 1 million simulations, resulting in a 14-seat gain, Skelley wrote. But factoring in the states with redrawn congressional maps, he said that Democrats make an average gain of 13 seats in the 41 states that did not redistrict, which Skelley emphasized as being the party’s “path to a majority.”

“In our forecast for the unchanged states, Democrats win an average of nearly 150 seats, up from the 137 they currently control,” he continued. “Meanwhile, the redistricted states do not come close to offsetting that shift.”

He explained how in Texas, “Republicans are averaging a bit under a two-seat gain, roughly three seats short of their ideal.” Texas was the first state to redraw its map after President Trump urged red states to redistrict in order to maintain and increase their majority in Congress, with other red states following suit.

Redrawn districts that are home to Latino majorities give Texas Democratic incumbents a slight advantage, with Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) both forecasted to keep their seats.

“Similarly, they also have around a 1 in 3 chance of defeating two-term GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the 15th District,” Skelley continued. “While Trump would have won that seat by roughly 18 points under the new lines, he only would have won it by about two points in 2020.”

Florida could also see Republicans underperform more, with no shift favoring Republicans despite redistricting targeting four Democratic-held seats, with at least two of those seats both being favorites to hold on, Skelley wrote.

Ohio holds a similar likelihood of underperforming, with three Democrats likely to keep their seats and Rep. Max Miller’s (R-Ohio) district shifting toward a toss-up amid allegations of domestic abuse in connection with his wife.

The first Democratic-led state to retaliate with its own ballot measure to redraw its map could give California four seats out of the five where it could see gains. But Skelley said that Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) is the “smaller underdog” on “turf that Trump narrowly would have won in 2024” in the 22nd District.

“A potential Republican win there, as well as outside shots in districts such as the 13th, 45th, and GOP-held 48th [districts] help keep Democrats from averaging the full-on five-seat gain they want in California,” Skelley added.

Missouri has been the latest front in the redistricting battle. The state’s Supreme Court earlier this month unanimously ruled that the redrawn map designed to benefit Republicans “did not go into effect and will not go into effect” unless voters approve it in a referendum in the fall.

Skelley said DDHQ has a freeze on Missouri’s forecast until the legal battle over the map “is finalized.”

The high court said that the state must use the old map that favored the GOP six seats to two rather than replace it with the 7-1 House map used during this year’s primaries. The decision has confused Missouri voters as to which primary candidates will appear on the ballot. It has also made them angry, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) previously told The Hill.

Trump called the ruling a “Dark Day for ‘Justice’ in Missouri” and claimed that the election process had been, “as usual … disturbed.”