Democrats hold 11-point lead over GOP on congressional ballot: Poll

Democrats hold a comfortable 11-point lead over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, according to new poll — the latest survey showing enduring Democratic momentum ahead of November.

An Emerson College Polling survey released on Thursday found Democrats led Republicans 53 percent to 42 percent on a generic congressional ballot test. A similar survey released last month showed Democrats with an 8-point lead — 51 percent to Republicans’ 43 percent.

“While the generic ballot test doesn’t capture nuances of individual races, it’s an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained in a Thursday press release.

“Independent and Hispanic voters, who broke for President Trump in 2024, support the Democratic candidate by significant margins, 60 percent to 31 percent and 64 percent to 31 percent, respectively.”

The national poll showed Trump with a 39 percent approval rating compared to a nearly 58 percent disapproval rating. Fifty-six percent of respondents said that Trump had done worse than expected in his second term, while 26 percent said he did better than expected and close to 18 percent said it was about what they expected.

When respondents were asked about how important certain issues were to them at the ballot box, the Iran war, jobs and tariff policy ranked as the top three issues.

Thursday’s survey offers the latest warning sign for Republicans less than two months from the midterm elections. Trump’s approval ratings have continued to decline, while the high cost of living — impacted by the war in Iran as well as the Trump administration’s tariff policies — are even rankling Republicans.

Several GOP House and Senate candidates have spoken out against the conflict in the Middle East in recent days. Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers (R) put out an ad this week calling for the end of the war with Iran amid concerns over higher diesel and grocery prices, while Iowa’s GOP Senate pick, Rep. Ashley Hinson, has echoed these concerns.

The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted between Sept. 21-22 with 1,000 likely voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.