Five questions hanging over Trump’s meeting with Xi

▪ Debate over how to tackle diesel costs

▪ Forecasters shift races toward Democrats

Chinese President Xi Jinping is meeting with President Trump today for high-stakes talks that could touch on several points of tension between their countries, including artificial intelligence and weapons shipments to Taiwan.

The state visit is Xi’s first to the U.S. in a decade, coming just four months after Trump’s own visit to China in May. The pair of global leaders appeared to improve relations during that summit, though there were few signs of progress on a trade deal.

The world will be watching closely to see if the pomp and pageantry leads to any breakthroughs this time around.

Here’s five questions surrounding Trump’s meeting with Xi:

The rising fears around the growth of AI have added to the anticipation around the superpower summit, with members of both parties expressing concern about the technology getting out of control.

Trump’s approach to the concerns has largely been to brush them aside, emphasizing that the U.S. must win an AI arms race with China, which is viewed as the U.S.’s top competitor. One safeguard that the administration seems to be open to is the creation of an AI hotline to establish a point of cooperation between the U.S. and China.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters Sunday that the U.S. had proposed a “notification mechanism” for the countries to share when an AI incident happens that could affect national security. The proposal is reminiscent of the “red phone” that the U.S. and Soviet Union used to communicate in emergency situations during the Cold War.

“We want a shared vision of common goals and common threats,” Bessent said after talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York. “We think that just like any cross-border activity, that moving from opaque to more transparency between the No. 1 and the No. 2 AI powers in the world is very important.”

Given Trump’s resistance to AI regulation and interest in one-upping China, the hotline may be the best hope for concrete cooperation, at least for now.

Will there be progress on a broader trade deal?

Just ahead of the meeting between Trump and Xi, Bessent announced Wednesday that officials agreed on an extension of their trade truce into January.

Trump and Xi reached an agreement last October to ease tensions of the trade war between their nations, but they were unable to make progress on a broader deal during the May summit in Beijing.

The truce was set to expire on Nov. 10. Under the truce, the Trump administration agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, while China agreed to delay export controls on rare earths and resume some soybean purchases.

An agreement to extend the current terms staves off the resumption of a full-scale trade war like what the U.S. is currently facing with Canada. But the true prize would be a comprehensive trade agreement to settle tensions for the long term, which has proven elusive so far.

Bessent raised some doubts about the potential of achieving a wider deal during a Fox News interview Wednesday.

“I don’t know whether a bigger deal can be done. I don’t know whether we will just roll the current deal,” he said , noting the extension could give leaders more time to negotiate.

Will Trump call out China’s support for Iran?

The president has been eager for any development that can shake up the stalemate that’s been in place in the Iran conflict for months, and his meeting with Xi may be a prime opportunity to try.

Trump has repeatedly urged countries around the world to sever economic ties with Tehran.

Bessent issued a global warning in August telling countries with any financial ties to Iran to cut off the regime or risk being cut off from the U.S. dollar system. He didn’t call out any specific countries at the time, but China remains Iran’s largest trading partner and primary destination for its oil exports.

The administration had earlier sanctioned Chinese entities processing Iranian oil. China denounced Bessent’s announcement as only further inflaming tensions, a sign of how any push from Trump may play with Beijing.

The president also has a new weapon to use against China, after signing into law a tariffs and sanctions bill named after the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) earlier this month. The bill gives him authorities to punish countries doing the most trade with Russia, including China.

The status of Taiwan is a perennial issue any time that U.S. and Chinese leaders meet, and eyes will be on whether Trump signals any shift in U.S. posture on arming the island against a potential Chinese invasion.

Beijing has long pushed for the U.S. to recognize Taiwan as part of China, considering it to be awaiting reunification with mainland China. The U.S. is pledged under federal law to provide Taiwan with support in the event of any invasion but keeps its plans ambiguous on whether it would defend the island itself.

Possible new arms funding to Taiwan hangs in the balance, with Trump weighing whether to greenlight a $14 billion arms package.

A senior administration official told NewsNation’s Hannah Brandt that Trump will decide “in fairly short time.” The package is expected to be a topic that comes up during his meeting with Xi, with the Chinese leader having previously asked him to pause the sale.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and three other Republican senators called on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to release the stalled financial assistance in a letter Wednesday, reminding them of their past statements supporting Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Still, Rubio said the U.S. is partially constrained in its abilities by Washington’s potential needs in other parts of the world, arguing the pause isn’t specifically about Taiwan.

Will China commit to releasing political prisoners?

Trump has found success on multiple occasions in making deals to get Americans and others the U.S. considers wrongfully detained freed, and the families of those held in Chinese custody are hoping he can reach a deal again.

The Hill’s Laura Kelly and Julia Manchester reported last month on several notable Americans being held in China whose families are looking to Trump’s “unique” diplomacy as a way to get their relatives home.

One of the most high-profile prisoners is Jimmy Lai , a Hong Kong pro-democracy leader who is serving a long prison sentence for violations of the region’s national security law.

But Xi has often shown resistance to letting these types of prisoners go.

Mike Lillis , one of The Hill’s House reporters, has his own look at five critical issues that lawmakers want Trump to raise with Xi, getting more in depth to these questions and others. Subscribe to The Hill Insider to read Mike’s analysis here .

▪ The Hill Insider : China hawks seethe as Trump rolls out red carpet for Xi.

▪ The Hill Insider : Trump trade rules apply differently to China, Canada.

Forty days remain until voters hit the polls across America to decide the balance of power. I spoke with Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters and asked him how many seats he believes Republicans end up winning. He had specific numbers in mind.

“I say we pick up let’s say, 220 seats in the House. I hate to give predictions, so these are what I think. I think we end up at 53 Senate seats. We stay even,” Gruters added. “We have a lot more resources to spend. We’ve been holding out, and then we have our secret weapon in President Donald J. Trump,” he added.

What stood out to me was that Gruters was predicting a tight finish. That stands in contrast to the feeling right now among Democrats, many of whom believe they are on the verge of a potential blue wave, especially given the backdrop of war and high gas prices .

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6 p.m. EDT/5 p.m. CDT on NewsNation.

Dr. Heidi Overton will appear today before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee for her confirmation hearing to lead the Food and Drug Administration. The hearing will place Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in the middle of the fight for Overton’s nomination given the physician’s staunch anti-abortion stance.

The Pentagon has officially increased the number of service members who have died in the Middle East since the start of the Iran war to 19, adding a captain from Virginia who died last week because of a “non-combat related incident.” She was posthumously promoted to major.

A judge in Iowa has dismissed Trump’s lawsuit against pollster J. Ann Selzer and The Des Moines Register, rejecting claims that a poll published shortly before the 2024 presidential election constituted fraud. That poll showed former Vice President Kamala Harris leading by 3 points, though Trump would eventually win the state by 14 points.

Members of the White House press pool and White House TV watch as President Trump walks to board Air Force One, Sept. 21, 2026, Joint Base Andrews, Md. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Associated Press)

BATTED DOWN: A federal judge ordered the White House to immediately restore press credentials to CNN, MS NOW and Politico early Thursday, finding the administration’s ban likely violated their constitutional due process rights.

U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly , a Trump appointee, expressed heavy skepticism about the legality of the ban during a hearing Wednesday afternoon, saying early on that due process “wasn’t followed here.” He didn’t initially rule from the bench but said he would issue a decision soon.

“Defendants do not dispute that Plaintiffs did not receive notice and an opportunity to be heard before their hard passes were revoked,” Kelly wrote.

The three outlets sued after Trump announced they would be barred from White House grounds. The administration later sent the outlets letters pointing to national security concerns.

Kelly found he’s bound by a 1977 precedent that the Fifth Amendment’s due process protections come into play when the White House arbitrarily denies a credential to reporters.

Theodore Boutrous , an attorney for the media outlets, argued the ban amounted to “viewpoint discrimination” in violation of the First Amendment. He also said the move came “completely out of the blue.”

The attorney also pressed the judge to immediately restore the three outlet’s media credentials, nodding to the Chinese leader’s arrival in Washington.

“These are urgent matters,” Boutrous told the judge. “We’re at war. World leaders are coming to Washington.”

Justice Department attorney Michael Velchik contended that “access to the White House is a privilege, not a right,” and that the president has the right to decide who accesses certain spaces.

“At the very least, the president may exclude anyone he wants from the Oval Office,” Velchik later added.

Trump said in advance of the hearing that he expected to lose at the district court level, calling Kelly a “not particularly fair judge.” He indicated he would quickly appeal.

▪ The Hill : On Capitol Hill, the reporters run free. GOP senators are fine with it.

▪ The Hill : Newsmax CEO says he asked Trump to ‘reconsider’ press ban.

DIESEL DIVIDE DEEPENDS: A divide is emerging in the GOP over how best to respond to rising diesel prices, amid growing calls for lawmakers to consider a ban on exports.

After telling reporters Tuesday that talks within the administration are ongoing about a potential diesel export ban, the White House is now denying a Politico report that says the administration is planning a 90-day ban on exports. Politico, citing five people familiar, reported that the administration was still working out a legal process for such a move.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright told The Wall Street Journal that the administration would not halt all diesel exports and would instead take a voluntary approach to bringing prices down. Wright also was quoted in Reuters yesterday criticizing the ban, saying it “definitely doesn’t work.”

The White House referred The Hill to his comments, when asked about the Politico report.

Still, enthusiasm for a diesel export ban is strong among some constituents. Rep. Ashley Hinson , the Iowa GOP Senate candidate, responded to Trump’s support for a diesel export ban Tuesday by suggesting that Congress return to Washington to make that happen immediately.

▪ The Hill : Farm state Republicans feel pressure from rising diesel prices.

▪ The Hill Insider : Would a diesel export ban actually bring down prices?

IRAN CLAPS BACK: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian gave a defiant speech at the United Nations General Assembly yesterday, refusing to back down or surrender its nuclear program as the U.S. wages war against the country.

“He must know that the resistance of the Iranian people will only increase in the face of sanctions, increased pressure, increased bullying,” Pezeshkian told the room of Trump.

“We will never bow our head or bend at the knee,” he added.

The U.S. representative walked out of the room during the Iranian president’s address.

The speech was at times a direct response to Trump’s remarks on Tuesday, in which he said Iran it has a choice between making a deal with the U.S. or risking “annihilation.”

▪ The Hill : GOP breaks ranks on Iran as voters fume over war’s costs.

▪ The Hill : Speaker Mike Johnson calls for ‘resolution’ of Iran war.

LOOK WHAT’S BACK : The chaotic legal battle over Missouri’s congressional map is back before the Supreme Court for a third time after an appeals court once again implemented a new map backed by Republicans.

The Supreme Court has already twice rejected the implementation of a map that would likely increase the state GOP’s edge in its congressional delegation from 6-2 to 7-1. But those rulings have been interim, and a federal appeals court reinstated the 7-1 map on Monday in its final ruling on the case.

That now sends the case back to the high court, but the victory for Republicans may only be temporary.

Given the Supreme Court’s past two rulings against the 7-1 map, a shift to rule in its favor would be a striking turnaround. And with ballots already being sent out in Missouri, time for further debate has essentially run out.

▪ NPR : Trust in Postal Service delivering mail-in ballots on time falls.

The president and first lady Melania Trump will greet Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, at 10 a.m. Trump and Xi will deliver remarks at 10:15 and the couples will participate in a gift exchange at 10:30 a.m. They will all participate in a silent drill platoon review at 10:40 and a military review at 11 a.m. The president and Xi will participate in a bilateral meeting at 11:30 a.m. Trump will receive an intelligence briefing at 2 p.m. In the evening, Trump and Xi will deliver remarks at 7:55 p.m. and participate in a state dinner at 8:10 p.m.

The House will convene at 2:30 p.m. for a pro forma session.

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) listens as Vice President Vance speaks during an event at Webco Manufacturing, Sept. 14, 2026, in Olathe, Kan. (Mark Schiefelbein, Associated Press)

BLUE SHIFT : Democrats’ map in the upcoming midterms keeps expanding as multiple election forecasters shift their analyses of key races in favor of the party’s candidates.

The election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted two Senate races considered reaches for Democrats in their favor Wednesday, moving the South Carolina Senate race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” and the Kansas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

Both GOP Sens. Roger Marshall (Kan.) and Darline Graham (S.C.) are still viewed as favorites to hold onto their seats, but Democrats are increasingly hopeful they could pull off upsets as polls show a tightening race.

The changes came a day after fellow forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved three Senate races and four gubernatorial races in favor of Democrats , reflecting the “persistently poor national environment” for Republicans.

The Kansas Senate race was one of the three, along with Iowa and Michigan. Sabato’s also moved three key House races toward Democrats, including one new district in Texas that was drawn specifically for the purpose of helping Republicans gain a seat.

Democrats will need to net four seats in November to win back a majority in the Senate, but what at one point seemed to be a stretch now appears possible.

Fox News also shifted many races in favor of Democrats this week.

The changes come as the president’s job performance numbers sink to their lowest levels ever recorded from either of his terms, as the cost of gas soars amid an unpopular Iran war. Trump’s disapproval rating in the Decision Desk HQ polling average topped 60 percent in recent days for the first time, while his average approval has reached a new low.

▪ The Hill : Democrats hold 11-point lead in generic ballot: Poll.

▪ The Hill : Trump reaches highest disapproval of second term amid economic woes.

Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton (R-McKinney) wife of Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton, walks through the Senate Chamber at the Texas Capitol, Sept. 16, 2023, in Austin, Texas. (Eric Gay, Associated Press file)

‘ EVEN IF WE’RE MAD’: The estranged wife of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) spoke publicly for the first time this week about her soon-to-be-ex-husband’s Senate race, encouraging GOP women to vote Republican this November despite their reservations.

Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton (R) — who filed for divorce on “biblical grounds” in July 2025 — spoke at a Texas Federation of Republican Women meeting and told prospective voters that, when they consider which candidate to support, they should remember that “the party comes with the person.”

“Because we have more control over that seat and the future when we control the seat, when it’s still in the family, even if we’re mad at it,” she said. “But if we lose it to the other team, the nuances that we want to fix with maybe a certain candidate are nothing compared to what it’s going to take to get it back.”

Angela Paxton has largely stayed quiet during the attorney general’s closely watched Senate race against his Democratic opponent, Texas state Rep. James Talarico . Ahead of the primary in May, the state senator encouraged the public to vote but notably did not mention Ken Paxton’s race.

Ken Paxton has been embroiled in corruption scandals, including a federal investigation leading to felony security fraud charges and to being impeached overwhelmingly by the Republican-led Texas House of Representatives in 2023. An extramarital affair related to donor-related controversies emerged as a focus of his impeachment trial, leading to Angela Paxton’s decision to file for divorce.

Her public support for Ken Paxton’s Senate bid comes as polls show a very tight race. A recent poll found Talarico leading Paxton 46 percent to 43 percent.

▪ CNBC : Texas turning blue may hinge on Dems harnessing data center opposition.

▪ CNN : Republican former state lawmaker says he’ll ‘never’ support Paxton.

Four years ago, we warned about our democracy. Here’s what gives us hope now , Michael Hayden, Stanley McChrystal, Mark Hertling and Douglas Lute write in The Hill.

Freedom should be on the agenda when Xi comes to Washington , Nicole Bibbins Sedaca writes in The Hill.

Reporters raise hands to question Vice President JD Vance, as he speaks with reporters in the James Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House, Thursday, Sept. 3, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for the weekly news quiz!

The White House press pool has been in the spotlight this week in an instance of the media becoming the story, so this week’s quiz will cover the history of the pool and how it operates.

Be sure to email your responses to jgans@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line.

How old is the White House Correspondents’ Association?

Which president does lore state saw a group of reporters in the rain and invited them into the White House to talk, launching the White House press corps?

Which former CNN correspondent briefly lost their credentials during Trump’s first term?

How many journalists were kicked out of the White House press pool during Joe Biden’s presidency?