Elon Musk is flying under the radar in the Texas Senate race. Republicans want to keep it that way.

The last time Elon Musk sank money into an election, he played a starring role in the 2025 state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. He donned an oversized cheese hat , offered $1 million checks to voters, and he and affiliated groups poured at least $20 million into the contest.

In the end, the conservative candidate lost by 10 points in what was widely viewed as a rebuke of Musk and the Trump administration.

Now, the richest person in the world is back boosting Republican candidates in critical midterm elections, including a bruising Senate race in Texas where Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing Democrat James Talarico, who had initially far outraised him and remains close in polling.

But that financial tide is quickly turning — with Musk's help.

Unlike in Wisconsin, Musk has so far stayed out of the spotlight in Texas, even though he lives in the state, has based his companies Tesla and SpaceX there, and employs about 20,000 people . He hasn't announced plans for any in-person events, or teased — as he did in Wisconsin — that he'd be handing out $1 million checks to voters.

Privately, Republicans say they want Musk to keep his distance. In interviews, more than half a dozen Republican strategists involved in the Texas Senate race say they hope Musk follows his 2024 model of electoral involvement, which led to a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress. Then, Musk spent more than $250 million on Donald Trump and his party.

Republicans believe Democrats will attempt to turn Musk into a boogeyman if he takes on a higher-profile role in Texas or other battlegrounds. One Republican consultant involved in the Texas Senate race said that was the perception in Wisconsin.

"He came in super late, and it was very public," said the consultant, who, like others interviewed for this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly. "Elon spending money became the story, which I think maybe was a mistake."

A different Republican strategist involved in Texas campaigns said those around Musk learned from the experience.

"Did Elon bring some things to the Wisconsin race that hampered things? Probably," the person added. "But I think they will adjust for that."

Democrats, however, say they welcome Musk more publicly entering the fray in Texas.

"Elon, bring it. You've failed in Wisconsin. You'll fail in Texas," said Nathan Johnson, a Democrat running to replace Paxton as attorney general. "I'm not afraid of Elon bringing his political money here. All these policies favor him or people like him."

An in-your-face Musk campaign would play into Talarico's narrative that the real American divide isn't left versus right but "top versus bottom," with elites and billionaires exerting control over the working class, they say.

"James is running largely on costs and corruption," Luke Warford, a Texas-based Democratic strategist and chair of the Travis County Democratic Party, said of Talarico. "The idea of the richest man in the world coming in late to try to buy the election and save Ken Paxton really plays into James Talarico's argument."

The Texas Senate race has all the makings of a contest that would attract Musk. The conservative narrative building against Talarico amplifies his past remarks in support of transgender people, including his comment that " God is nonbinary ." Talarico told Fox News he was being "provocative" and was trying to convey that one cannot use "human categories to define God."

Musk has spoken publicly about his own transgender daughter, Vivian Jenna Wilson, saying she was "not a girl" and was figuratively "dead." He also alleged that he had been "tricked" into authorizing trans-related medical treatment for her when she was 16. Wilson previously told NBC News that Musk was an absent father who was cruel to her as a child for being queer and feminine.

At this point, Musk's America PAC has not said how much it will invest in Texas, but a person with knowledge of the group's thinking indicated that as of now, the Paxton-Talarico contest was not slotted to receive more focus than other Senate or congressional races the group is investing in across the country, saying "every state and district where we are spending is a priority."

To date, America PAC has spent nearly $5.2 million on digital ads, mail, live calls and pamphleting in Texas, but that number is expected to significantly climb.

In all, the super PAC has spent $14.7 million on congressional races, including seven Senate races and nearly three dozen House races. The group has spent the most money on the Texas Senate race, followed by nearly $3 million on Senate races in Ohio and Michigan.

National Republican groups long knew they would have to provide air cover for Paxton because of an initial fundraising disadvantage to Talarico, who had $21 million in cash on hand compared to Paxton's $1.7 million at the end of June, according to campaign finance reports. Today, a flood of Republican money is pouring in from several sources and the balance has suddenly tipped in Paxton's favor.

"America PAC is working in full coordination with the entire GOP apparatus and is investing in the states and districts that will decide control of the House and Senate," America PAC spokesman Andrew Romeo said in a statement. "Our only priority is ensuring Republicans keep full control of Washington and stopping the lunatic left from bringing us back to the days of open borders, rampant crime, and woke policies."

Paxton's status as a scandal-plagued candidate who has been impeached and indicted — coupled with the fact he's coming off a contentious primary against Sen. John Cornyn and much of the Republican Party establishment, aside from Trump — makes him among the most vulnerable front-line Senate Republican candidates in a state where Democrats have not won a statewide post in three decades.

After Trump's late endorsement helped propel Paxton over Cornyn, groups like the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, were left scrambling. The election cycle budgets were, in part, built on the idea that Cornyn would not need nearly as much national fundraising help.

"Cornyn had his own fundraising machine, he could raise a lot of money on his own, so it was going to make things easier to cover other important close races," said a Republican consultant familiar with the thought process. "I know they [Elon] are focused more on the ground game stuff. MAGA Inc. is on digital and mail. This pretty much turned out the way we thought it would. It's an expensive endeavor and a team and multigroup effort."

The pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC has pumped at least $15 million into TV ads that have included hitting Talarico on previous votes involving China.

So far, MAGA Inc. has spent $10 million in the state to help boost Paxton, its second-biggest single-state investment.

The group did not return a request for comment, but in an interview with NBC News last week, MAGA Inc. chief James Blair said the group had booked $10 million worth of TV ad time in Texas. Blair noted the previous disparity in spending, with Talarico and related groups pummeling Paxton on TV.

"The fact is Ken Paxton had $100 million spent against him in the primary," Blair said. "Talarico had $0 spent against him in the primary, and that has an impact on candidate images that takes time to rectify. But the resources … have begun to be deployed now in earnest [and] will take care of that problem."

A veteran GOP official directly involved in the race contended that the shift toward spending in Texas did not take away from other battlegrounds.

"This spending will not take away from other investments," the official said. "This came from a collection of Texas folks very committed to making sure that seat remains Republican. They see the polling, and that James Talarico is so extreme. No one wants to see Texas turn blue."

When asked about the onslaught of money headed toward Talarico, spokesman JT Ennis said, "Billionaire-backed dark money groups are lying about James because they're scared of the people-powered movement we're building to fix this broken, corrupt political system."