With Trump’s help, the Senate looks good for Democrats

Last week, the National Republican Senatorial Committee tried to reassure its top donors, gathered on Georgia’s Sea Island, that everything looks rosy for the midterms. “I told attendees that I think all incumbent Republican senators will hold their seats because we have good candidates who are well funded,” pollster Erik Iverson told reporters .

But, as Axios scooped, Iverson was almost laughed out of the room. One participant called it “delusional.” Donors see the writing on the wall, and they know it doesn’t look good for Republicans.

The current Senate line-up is 53 Republicans and 45 Democrats plus two Independents, 53-47. This year, there are 35 Senate seats up on Nov. 3 , of which Republicans are defending 22, and Democrats, are defending 13.

At first, the 2026 Senate field favored Republicans. But that’s no longer the case. Latest forecasts by leading pollsters say just the opposite. According to fredcornell.com, Democrats have a 60 percent chance of regaining control of the Senate. RacetotheWH.com rates Democrats’ chance of success even higher, at 7 2 percent .

To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to retain the seats they now hold, plus pick up four more. On both fronts, they look strong.

Incumbent Democratic senators practically certain to be reelected include Delaware’s Chris Coons, New Jersey’s Cory Booker, Rhode Island’s Jack Reed, and Massachusetts’ Ed Markey. In Georgia, Jon Ossoff was once considered the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat, but his reelection campaign has proven so successful he’s already being talked about as presidential material in 2028.

After a bitterly-fought primary, it looked like Michigan Democrats might have a hard time holding onto the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters, but candidate Abdul El-Sayed has united the Democratic Party behind him and leads in the polls against Republican Mike Rogers.

For a while, it looked like Democrats might have a hard time holding onto retiring Jeanne Shaheen’s Senate perch in New Hampshire, but latest polls give Democrat Chris Pappas an 8-point lead over Republican John Sununu .

What’s most impressive is how Democrats have turned the tide in red states and stand likely to flip several Republican seats. Starting in North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper is almost certain to become the Tarheel State’s next U.S. senator.

Four other currently Republican seats are definitely in play and look good for Democrats: Ohio, where, in most polls, former Sen. Sherrod Brown has a slight lead over Sen. Jon Husted (R); Alaska, with former Rep. Mary Peltola out in front of Sen. Dan Sullivan (R); Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins (R), facing the toughest fight of her political life, is deadlocked with Democrat Troy Jackson; and perhaps most stunning of all, a 5-point lead in Texas for Democrat James Talarico over Donald Trump’s anointed and admittedly flawed candidate, Republican Ken Paxton.

Surprisingly, two more possible red-state pickups have popped up on the Democrats’ screen. In Iowa, where Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate seat since 2008, two-time Paralympic gold medalist for Team USA Josh Turek, endorsed by President Obama, holds a small lead over Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, endorsed by President Trump. Deep-red Kansas is also suddenly in play, with the remarkably strong showing by pastor Adam Hamilton, founder of America’s largest United Methodist Church, now running ahead of GOP Sen. Roger Marshall. Kansas hasn’t sent a Democratic senator to Washington since 1932.

Then, last weekend, came the real shocker: news that Darline Graham, handpicked by President Trump to take the seat of her late brother Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, is in trouble — not only among Democrats, but also among Republicans angry over Trump’s endorsing her over longtime conservative, Freedom Caucus Rep. Ralph Norman. The latest poll by the Trafalgar Group, a GOP pollster, shows Graham with only a 1-point lead over Democratic challenger Annie Andrews in a state Donald Trump won in 2024 by 17.9 points.

Add ‘em up. That’s eight vulnerable Republicans, of whom Democrats need to unseat four. Which is no certainty, but certainly a possibility. Especially since Republican incumbents are forced to defend a president who broke his promises to cut prices, lower mortgage rates, end the war in Ukraine, and start no new wars — and now spends most of his time talking about the ballroom.

If Democrats recapture the Senate on Nov. 3, Donald Trump will have no one to blame but himself.