Abdul El-Sayed soars in Kalshi odds after Haley Stevens fallout

The fallout from Congresswoman Haley Stevens’s endorsement of Mike Rogers has been extraordinary, but it has also been a benefit to Abdul El-Sayed.

Prediction markets have continued to price El-Sayed favorably. Kalshi’s market showed him around 78 to 79 percent by Monday morning. Those numbers are not polling, and markets fluctuate, but they certainly don’t suggest Stevens’s endorsement has fundamentally changed the market’s assessment of the race.

Then the money came rolling in. Check out this X post from MSNOW executive producer Kyle Griffin: “According to El-Sayed’s campaign, Sunday brought in more than $2.4 million, its biggest fundraising day yet. More than 65,000 donors contributed, with an average donation of $36.74. Nearly 30,000 were first-time donors.”

That’s some pretty remarkable fundraising response in the middle of a political melodrama. But the way this has backfired and the unorganized rollout of this dramatic decision makes me wonder if Haley Stevens is OK.

The New Republic published a headline reading: “Haley Stevens’s Friends and Staffers Are Freaked Out by Her Fiancé,” detailing concerns allegedly raised by people in her inner circle about Jason Turkish and his influence over the congresswoman.

Michigan University regent Jordan Acker, a friend of Stevens, publicly said he was “deeply troubled” by Turkish’s alleged treatment of Stevens’s staff, friends and allies. Acker also claimed he couldn’t reach Stevens because Turkish had taken her phone. He also wrote: “I’ve heard serious concerns about his treatment of Haley’s staff, friends, and allies. My own experiences have only deepened those concerns.”

We have no idea what’s happening privately in their relationship, but these are uncomfortable allegations, and if Stevens was going to make a decision this consequential, you’d think she’d be prepared to explain it.

Instead, watch this exchange with Anderson Cooper on CNN:

STEVENS: “We all want Democrats to win, I’m a really proud Democrat, and by the way, Abdul has every other Democrat with him.”

COOPER: “ I’m just wondering what changed — people change their mind, I’m just wondering what changed.”

STEVENS: “ This is about Abdul getting angrier and angrier and saying I don’t want these people in my campaign.”

COOPER: “ But he didn’t get angrier from midnight to this morning, something changed your mind — was there a soporific aspect?”

STEVENS: “Well, Anderson, you certainly weren’t on the phone with me at midnight.”

As Aaron Rupar put on X, this was a “seemingly mental breakdown.”

She could not explain the change in perspective and point to specific things besides “anger” she says Abdul El-Sayed has without describing what that anger is and how it showed up in the past 48 hours that made her change her mind.

Stevens was backed by Chuck Schumer during the primary. Folks were upset with Schumer for his hesitancy on supporting El-Sayed after the primaries. But after Stevens’s endorsement of Rogers, Schumer called the move a “despicable betrayal.” Hakeem Jeffries and other Democratic leaders have also rallied behind El-Sayed, reaffirming their support for the party’s nominee. So her decision has the opposite effect that she intended.

The party that has spent months wrestling with internal divisions is now presenting a much more unified front around one candidate — the candidate she has pulled support from.

Whether this changes votes tonight remains to be seen. But Stevens’s decision has certainly changed the conversation and, unexpectedly, brought Democrats together around Abdul El-Sayed.

Lindsey Granger is a NewsNation contributor and co-host of The Hill’s commentary show “Rising.” This column is an edited transcription of her on-air commentary.