Carville predicts ‘astronomical’ Black turnout will drive midterm results

Democratic strategist James Carville predicted an “astronomical” Black turnout would drive Tuesday’s midterm elections amid election forecasters anticipating a “blue wave.”

“When I look around at candidates in other places, I think the story” Tuesday night and Wednesday morning “is going to be Black turnout,” he said during a Monday appearance on MS NOW . “I think Black turnout is not going to be high. I think relative to the rest of the election available, it’s astronomical.”

“That is going to carry a lot more than people in Louisiana, Mississippi particularly. It’s going to matter in places like Texas, going to places in Michigan,” the Democratic strategist concluded.

This comes after Louisiana’s — a red stronghold — Senate race shifted in Democrat’s favor in October by election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik wrote Republican Julia Letlow “could be in a tighter-than-expected race” with her opponent, Democrat Jamie Davis, citing early voting data by Louisiana-based conservative pollster John Couvillon showing “excellent Black voter turnout.”

In Mississippi, attorney Scott Colom is seeking to unseat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.). His campaign gained traction in the weeks leading up to Election Day as analysts predict Black voters will help decide the state’s Senate election.

The Magnolia State has the highest share of Black voters in the country at 36 percent.

“African American voters tend to vote 90-plus percent for Democratic candidates,” Austin Barbour, a Mississippi-based Republican strategist, said. “If you’re down voting in Mississippi, you start out with a significant voting bloc, so it’s a turnout game as every election is.”

Hyde-Smith and Letlow are the favorites to win in projections by The Hill’s partner Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ), though Republicans in reliably red states have faced rising voter frustration with rising costs and tariffs against other countries, particularly Canada.

“When you go and tell everybody you’re going to get us out of wars, you’re going to drain the swamp, you’re going to cut gas prices, you’re going to do all of this, and none of that is occurring, people get frustrated,” Mississippi-based Republican strategist Hayes Dent expressed.

Democrats are looking to win in Senate races in Texas, Alaska, Michigan and Minnesota in the party’s effort to regain control of the upper chamber.