Republicans bet the House on Trump

GOP leaders are betting the House on President Trump in this year’s elections.

The midterm cycle is always a referendum on the sitting president, whether members of his party like it or not. And if there was a clear message from the Republicans’ midterm convention in Dallas, it’s that GOP leaders have embraced that reality with zeal, leaning heavily on Trump to animate their base and stave off a blue wave.

“Show up and vote Republican up and down the ballot,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) urged the crowd in Texas. “President Trump’s America First agenda is at stake.”

Yet the perils of that approach are equally as clear, as many vulnerable Republicans are seeking to distance themselves from a president whose national approval rating has sunk to historic lows. Most of those battleground lawmakers skipped the Dallas rally, where Trump was the ubiquitous star attraction.

As Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his leadership team return to Washington this week on the heels of the unconventional convention, they’ll be reminded at every turn of the risks underlying their lean-in strategy.

Two years into Trump’s term, the economy remains volatile. The Iran War is unpopular, with no end in sight. Gas prices are above $4.25 a gallon and rising. The cost of groceries has steadily risen, despite Trump’s vows to cut costs “on Day One.” And an escalating trade war with U.S. allies threatens even higher costs on American consumers.

Those factors are challenging the Republicans’ hold on the House and Senate, which are both up for grabs in November’s midterms, and they’re sparking internal gripes about the message emanating from Dallas.

“This was designed to activate [the] base, but you can’t help but also wonder if it just further defines MAGA to swing voters — Independents in particular — as a weird, cultish movement, because there was a heavy vibe of that,” Rob Stutzman, a California-based Republican consultant, said Friday by phone.

Some Republicans are particularly frustrated with Trump’s offer to send $5,000 to every adult if voters keep the GOP in control of the House and Senate — a proposal that caught congressional Republicans off guard and quickly divided the party.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a conservative spending hawk, hammered the idea for promoting a “soul-sucking” dependency on government. Others pointed out that a government check stepped on a central GOP midterm message that Democrats are the party of big government and socialism.

“Truly, what’s the difference between government-owned grocery stores and $5,000 handouts if we win?” Stutzman said.

“This isn’t Eisenhower planning the D-Day invasion,” he continued. “It felt a lot like throwing stuff at the wall, which is not the definition you want to your base, that you don’t know what you’re doing. I mean, that’s already part of the problem with the base, is that he hasn’t done Job One, which is lower the cost of living. And now it appears he’s gotten us into a potential forever war, which he promised not to do.”

GOP leaders say they’re unconcerned. Johnson and his top deputies — Reps. Scalise, Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) and Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) — all had prominent speaking roles in Dallas, where they embraced Trump and his agenda as a boon for America’s workers.

If that left any doubts, Trump eliminated them by urging his supporters to approach the midterms as if he were on the ballot.

“You got to get out and vote, and you’re going to pretend I’m on the ballot because, in a way, I am on the ballot,” Trump said. “Because if [Democrats] get in, they’re going to take away all of the things that we got, we can’t let that happen.”

Later, several GOP leaders downplayed the large number of GOP lawmakers who declined to attend the convention, attributing the absences to scheduling conflicts.

Hudson, in an interview with Axios in Dallas, dismissed the idea that Trump is a liability in some districts as “Washington D.C. hogwash.” He characterized Trump as “a total asset” for down-ballot Republicans of all stripes.

“The more he gets a stage like this to talk about what he’s actually accomplished for the American people, the better,” Hudson told the outlet .

Still, midterm elections are historically tough on the party of the incumbent president. And the high cost of living has helped to push Trump’s approval rating below 35 percent in several recent national polls, complicating the effort by Johnson and GOP leaders to keep control of the House in the next Congress.

Democrats, who like their chances of flipping the House, have sought to highlight the disconnect between the celebratory tone surrounding the convention and the inflationary trends that have continued to spiral under Trump’s second term.

“The fact that these Republicans are planning a celebration in the middle of an economic crisis, where everyday Americans are drowning because of this high cost of living, is extraordinary,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters in Washington ahead of the Dallas gathering. “How many different ways can Donald Trump and Republicans communicate to the American people that they don’t give a damn about their health, safety, and economic well-being?”

Yet top Republicans think the key to the midterms lies in keeping the focus squarely on national politics and broader trends, even as many vulnerable Republicans want to concentrate on concerns more local to their districts.

“We’ve got to nationalize this election,” Vice President Vance told a group of Republicans during a private breakfast in Dallas, according to NBC News . “We’ve got to talk about all the crazy things the Democrats are doing.”