American Farmers Sell Into Long-Hoped-for Crop Price Rally

(Bloomberg) -- Punishing temperatures swept across the US Midwest this week, prompting another round of heat advisories after weeks of sizzling weather. For America's farmers, the sweltering conditions are bringing something they've been waiting years for: higher crop prices.

The heat's threat to yields helped corn futures jump about 15% since the end of July, sending prices above the critical $5-a-bushel threshold to reach the highest levels since 2023. Those gains ripple through the farm economy, underpinning higher bids at grain terminals and elevators while also allowing growers to use futures contracts to hedge their risks.

Farmers like Iowa's Dave Walton see the rally as a game changer.

"We've been fairly aggressive selling into this rally, and so we're looking at black ink all the way across the board," Walton said in an interview, speaking about profitable conditions on his farm. "If I would have sold even six weeks ago, we'd still have been in the red on some of it."

Higher grain prices have raised hopes that an elusive rebound in the American farm economy is finally taking hold. Fresh data from the US Department of Agriculture show that farmers' cash receipts from crops are projected to climb 6.1% year-over-year in 2026. And investors are wagering on a continued rally, with the net-bullish holding in corn futures reaching the highest on record, data issued Friday show.

But after years of depressed prices and rising costs, growers still want to see more evidence of sustained improvement before they start making big investments.

Walton embodies the limits of the budding recovery.

At this week's Farm Progress Show in Iowa, Walton perused CNH Industrial NV's New Holland brand's latest tractors and crop sprayers as he searched for ways to improve his operation producing soybeans, corn and wheat. Timely rains in eastern Iowa have him expecting a "pretty good bean crop" and an average to below-average corn harvest. Still, he wants at least another year of solid profitability before spending on big-ticket items like machinery.

"There's very little we can afford, so you're window shopping," Walton said on the show grounds outside of Des Moines.