Robinhood’s CEO Says Prediction Markets Are Starting a ‘Supercycle That Could Drive Trillions In Annual Volume’ After 12 Billion Contracts Traded in 2025

Robinhood chief executive Vlad Tenev told investors that the company's prediction markets business is at the beginning of something much larger, and he put a number on it that most executives avoid saying out loud. "I think we're just at the beginning of a Prediction Markets supercycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time," he said on Robinhood Markets' (HOOD) fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call on February 10.

He reported adoption below the forecast. In the same remarks, Tenev said prediction market volumes had "more than doubled yet again" in the fourth quarter, "with over 12 billion contracts traded in 2025, which is the first full year of Prediction Markets." Customers had traded more than four billion further contracts in the opening weeks of 2026. He called it "the fastest-growing business in our history, $300 million-plus run rate in its first year."

For readers who have never traded one, a prediction market contract is a yes-or-no claim on a stated outcome, priced between zero and one dollar. It settles at $1 if the event happens and at $0 if it does not, so the price doubles as the market's implied probability. Robinhood lists them on sports, elections, economic releases, and a widening set of non-sports categories, under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than state gambling regulators.

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The gap between today and "trillions" is still quite a stretch. On the company's first quarter 2026 call, finance chief Shiv Verma told analysts that April prediction market volume was tracking toward roughly $3 billion, which would have been the platform's second-best month on record. Annualize a month like that and Robinhood's own dollar volume is measured in the tens of billions. Bernstein, in an estimate reported in April 2026, put the entire prediction markets industry at $1 trillion of volume by 2030.