OPEC cuts oil demand projections for remainder of 2026

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast of global oil demand growth for this year, amid persistent risks to shipping from Iran and its proxy groups.

The group projected Tuesday that oil demand for this year will grow by roughly 200,000 barrels per day relative to 2025, down from OPEC’s forecast in September of about 400,000 barrels per day.

OPEC’s forecast of 2026 oil demand also fell last month from roughly 600,000 barrels per day in August , as the Iran war and its spillover impacts on the energy industry persist.

“Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, disruptions to regional crude flows, and strong demand for prompt barrels pushed front-month prices higher relative to forward prices,” OPEC’s monthly report stated.

The group of oil-rich nations has 11 members, including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

Throughout the Iran conflict , which the U.S. and Israel launched in late February, the Iranian military has restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — through which nearly 34 percent of the world’s crude oil passed last year, according to the International Energy Agency .

While President Trump said Monday the U.S. is in “control” of the strait amid American forces’ blockade of Iranian ports, data from July and August show that shipping activity in the waterway was “highly restricted,” according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

“Only isolated shipments were visible around the end of July, early August, and again in mid-August. These sporadic movements were insufficient to generate a sustained increase in the moving average, which remained close to zero through most of August,” the WTO noted last month.

The Iran-backed Houthis have also recently targeted ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman and launched strikes over the weekend at two airports in Saudi Arabia.

Those attacks sparked a rise in oil prices on Monday, with Brent crude , the international benchmark, peaking at $107.33 per barrel.

But the price of Brent crude is down slightly on Tuesday, with the commodity trading at less than $106 per barrel as of the mid-afternoon. West Texas Intermediate crude, the North American benchmark, is up roughly 40 cents from closing time Monday.

Challenges that the oil industry is facing will not slow demand for petroleum next year, OPEC projected.

The organization raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2027 to about 2.6 million barrels per day, up from its September projection of roughly 2.4 million barrels per day.