Lincoln Riley situation at USC is more difficult after win | Opinion

Lincoln Riley had his back against the wall Saturday night. The embattled USC football coach faced an Ohio State team without its starting quarterback, at home and in the primetime television slot on NBC. This was a must-win for a man who has largely failed to do his job in nearly five full seasons in Los Angeles. Most USC fans wanted him gone entering this game. How much does this win change Riley's outlook? We're going to tell it straight, because that's what we always aim to do. We're not going to sell you false hope, but we're also going to offer our own view of what USC should do. Let's go:

We have discussed in recent weeks what athletic director Jennifer Cohen would and should do at USC in light of Lincoln Riley's struggles. Let's be brutally honest here: This win over Ohio State will very probably make Cohen keep Riley for 2027. It's not what fans want to hear, but again, giving people an accurate read of what's going on is what we should strive to do, instead of selling false hope. I personally would not retain Riley just yet, but it's likely that Riley will stay for a sixth season as USC coach due to this win over a big-name program. If we had to guess, Cohen is not going to abandon Riley after the coach took down the Big Ten's most annually successful program (not in a three-year window, but over the course of the past 60 years of college football).

We just told you where we think Jennifer Cohen stands on Lincoln Riley. Our own view is that Riley and USC need to go into Indiana and beat Curt Cignetti in two weeks to earn retention for 2027. It's just not enough to beat an Ohio State team playing without its starting quarterback at home. Beating Indiana on the road and taking down Curt Cignetti, the best coach in college football, would be a truly resounding statement about the condition of the USC program. A signature road win, something Riley hasn't achieved at any point in his tenure in Los Angeles, would be significant enough to warrant attention. Unless or until he gets the job done, we personally don't think Riley should be retained for next season... but again, we aren't making the decisions here. Jen Cohen is.

Lincoln Riley released a statement after the Ohio State game saying how much he wants to be the USC head coach. Given how much he is being paid, why wouldn't he? That point aside, we don't think Riley wants to admit defeat. He wants to figure this thing out in LA and get USC over the hump. He won't leave for Baylor or a Big 12 job. He wants to stay, in our view.

The win over Ohio State makes it really hard from a negotiating standpoint to convince Riley and his representation that accepting a lower buyout figure is palatable. A loss to the Buckeyes might have boxed Riley into a corner and given USC and Cohen more leverage. Now? It's a lot more difficult to get Riley to meet USC halfway on this sticky issue. No one wants to pay a full $70 million buyout. That's part of why this Ohio State result does feel significant in terms of determining Riley's status at USC going into 2027.

The argument Lincoln Riley always had for staying at USC in 2027 was that "I just need one more recruiting cycle with Chad Bowden" to stockpile talent and depth in the program and reach the point where the roster is truly built to contend for championships. Beating Ohio State gives Riley the ability to say "We're almost there and now we just need to finish the job next year." Lincoln Riley can say that one more year of Trent Mosley and Luke Wafle and Jahkeem Stewart and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, combined with incoming recruits, might put USC over the top.

We don't agree with Riley, but again, the political weight of this Ohio State win will make Riley's position and overall sales pitch more convincing to the people who matter: the administrators and major donors.

We aren't fully sold on Lincoln Riley, as you know, but with that having been said, the Gary Patterson hire looks better - not worse - as time goes along. This is a more mature and competent defense than what USC had last year. The run defense wasn't great against Ohio State, but when you consider how badly the Trojans were gashed by Illinois and Notre Dame, this is so much better by comparison. USC is able to stand tall in the red zone and doesn't allow 60-yard touchdown gallops. It's a low bar given how badly the 2025 run defense performed, but it's better, and against Ohio State, it mattered. Patterson hasn't oversold this defense but has gradually brought it along. The defense wasn't the reason USC lost at Wisconsin, either. Oregon was awful, but otherwise, this defense has largely done its job. It hasn't been great, but the product is undeniably better than 2025. Credit to Patterson and to Riley for making a hire which has moved the needle in the right direction.

Could Riley be fired if USC loses to Indiana and UCLA?

We haven't yet talked about the Bob Chesney-UCLA factor, so let's do that. If USC loses not only to Cignetti and Indiana, but to Chesney and UCLA, could that get Riley fired? We would certainly hand Riley a pink slip, but would Jen Cohen have the stomach to do that? The chances of this happening, given the win over Ohio State and what it added to Riley's column in terms of the backroom (and buyout) politics, are low. Only if USC gets blown out by both IU and UCLA could Riley still be in trouble. The odds are low. We do have to admit that the optics of UCLA making the College Football Playoff in Year 1 under Bob Chesney, while Lincoln Riley goes 0 for 5, would be terrible. Still, that "give me one more year and one more recruiting class" argument is easier for Riley to sell to Jen Cohen now that he has beaten Ohio State.

Here's the very uncomfortable truth about Lincoln Riley and USC football: Riley might lose to Indiana, then beat a UCLA team playing with a backup quarterback. USC would finish 9-3, just like last year. The Trojans would be bad enough to miss the playoff - making the season a failure - but they would be close enough to the playoff that Riley would be able to say, with some degree of legitimacy, that the program is very close to breaking through. It would be, in many ways, the worst of both worlds: no ultimate prize and no firing of Riley. Fans don't get the playoff and don't get a coaching change. They get neither. 0 for 2.

You can all see it coming. We can too. It would be the least satisfying outcome because it would mean nothing has really changed.

This Ohio State win isn't necessarily a bad thing for USC, but it can't end here. USC and Lincoln Riley have to at least win one of the Indiana or UCLA games for anyone to think real progress has been made, and even then, winning only one of the two means the Trojans miss the playoff for the 13th consecutive year, which is a failure.

If this Ohio State win really is going to mean something, Lincoln Riley needs to beat both Indiana and UCLA, get to 10-2, make the playoff, and truly end the debate about whether he is the right man for this program. Anything less will feel, to us, like failure.

Jen Cohen and USC brass might not see it the same way.

We said we wouldn't duck the tough conversations. That's reality as we see it after the win over Ohio State.

Recalling Ohio State’s last visit to the Coliseum in 2008

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