Arch Manning's 'Root Issue' and 'Bad Habits' Analyzed by Top NFL Draft Experts After Texas Loss

Four years into his college career, Texas quarterback Arch Manning remains "one of the more frustrating watches in football right now" in the words of The Athletic's Nick Baumgardner .

Baumgardner and colleague Dane Brugler assessed Manning's game following Saturday's 27-24 loss to Oklahoma. The star signal-caller went 19-of-31 for 260 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. The last turnover set up the Sooners' game-winning field goal.

Earlier in the fourth quarter, Manning's pick-six allowed Oklahoma to take a 24-17 lead. Brugler said that and the later interception were "inexcusable" and reflective of what's holding back his game.

"To me, that is the root issue: Manning is too aggressive in moments he should be more conservative, then plays overly conservative when you would like to see an aggressive decision," Brugler wrote. "There are a lot of aspects of his skill set that are NFL ready, including his pocket movements, passing anticipation and physical profile. But his decision-making is still being developed."

Baumgardner chimed in to say Manning "still has a bunch of bad habits he has to get rid of before anyone can think about him starting in an NFL game":

"The Oklahoma game showed another area of concern, which is Manning's inability to be consistent against any type of pressure and/or unexpected coverage. He spent most of the second half frozen in the pocket, staring down his first read before bailing to play backyard ball. This is not a new thing — it's been a problem throughout his career. He has to value the football more than he does, and the turnovers in this game were beyond inexcusable for a player of his experience level, let alone his talent."

He went on to argue a 42-yard completion to Cam Coleman, which set up the game-tying touchdown with 6:32 left in the fourth, illustrated the duality of Manning. The throw was on the money, but it was also into double coverage. Try a pass like that in the NFL and the outcome could be very different.

In Bleacher Report's most recent 2027 big board from September, Manning was the fourth-best quarterback and No. 17 overall player. He hasn't done much since then to boost his stock.

At a certain point, you have to look past the family name and recruiting profile and isolate what Manning is putting on film. He doesn't look like a dramatically different QB from the one who filled in for an injured Quinn Ewers in 2024 and then became the starter in 2025.

Midway through Year 4, you'd expect to see him ironing out some of his glaring flaws.

"What's giving so many people this blind faith that there's just this monstrous ceiling with him?" one AFC assistant general manager said to ESPN's Jordan Reid . "Maybe this current state is just who he really is as a prospect."

As it relates to the 2027 draft, the outcome could go a variety of ways with Manning and you wouldn't be totally shocked. He could reassure NFL teams and talent evaluators and be the first quarterback off the board. Maybe he slips into the second round. He could even decide one more year of college is worth it.

The only thing clear with Manning is that he's far from the finished product.