Arizona soccer can rewrite story of season with upset of No. 23 BYU

There's still a lot of soccer to play, but if projections are correct, the story for Arizona soccer won't have a happy ending. Based on games already played and projections for the Big 12 season, the Wildcats are expected to end up outside the top 175 in RPI *, but they can begin writing a different story when conference play starts on Friday evening.

A large part of Arizona's story is based not only on its existing win-loss-draw record of 3-4-1 but also on the opponents on its schedule. While Arizona played a top 25 team when North Carolina came to town, its opponents' projected average RPI ranking is 129 and it is not expected to have a single win over a top 50 team this season.

The opportunity to disprove that starts with BYU's visit to Mulcahy Soccer Stadium, which kicks off Arizona's Big 12 schedule. The Cougars are ranked No. 23 in the United Soccer Coaches poll. They are projected at No. 39 in RPI when selection day rolls around.

BYU is certainly capable of being upset. Utah State pulled off the 4-0 victory against the Cougars back on Sept. 10 when BYU was ranked 13th in the coaches poll. It was the Aggies' third match against a ranked Big 12 team and its only victory. It was shut out in earlier contests against Kansas and Colorado.

"I do know Utah State is a good team and well coached, and invests heavily in their soccer," Arizona head coach Becca Moros said back on Sept. 10. "It may not be a Power 4, but they may have more money than a bunch of Power 4s. So I can't really weigh in on [USU's win over BYU], but yeah, I mean, there's a lot of parity in women's soccer, a lot of good soccer players in this country. So I think that's all positive, and I think if we take care of what we can take care of to the best of our ability, we'll get good results. Will we get every result? No, but we will get good results, and I think that's what we have to focus on."

Where: Mulcahy Soccer Stadium in Tucson, Ariz.

Recent history says that Arizona can be competitive against the Cougars. Last year, the Wildcats lost to BYU in Provo by the score of 3-2. The only two Big 12 teams the Wildcats scored multiple goals against were the Cougars and Oklahoma State. They only scored in three Big 12 contests overall during a 2-8-1 conference season.

Arizona's first year in the Big 12 was much more successful. While they didn't make the NCAA Tournament, they finished 11-6-2 overall and 6-4-1 in the league on their way to a berth in the Big 12 Tournament. That run included a 2-1 win over BYU in Tucson.

Home is a good place for the Wildcats when they face the Cougars, especially in recent years. The two teams have played three times in the past decade. Arizona is 2-1 in those matchups with both wins coming in Mulcahy. Those are the only Wildcat wins in the nine-game series that stretches back to 1996.

This season, the road has been a bit more perilous for the Cougars, as well. Their loss to Utah State came in Logan. Their other loss, an upset by a Wisconsin team that has since risen to No. 14 in the polls, happened in Madison.

To grab another home win and get off to a good start in conference play, Arizona is going to have to do something it has struggled to do for the past two years, though. Namely, score.

The Wildcats have been fairly good at getting the ball into their attacking third. In their final nonconference match, they had slightly more overall possession than Pepperdine, controlling the ball 51 percent of the time. They had dramatically more possession in the attacking third, spending 40 percent of their possession in that part of the field compared to the Waves' 17 percent.

That superiority in possession in the dangerous part of the field led to a 10-4 advantage in corner kicks for Arizona. What it didn't lead to was a superiority in shots or shots on goal. Pepperdine won the shots stat 12-8 and shots on goal 5-4.

Those stats will have to be fixed if Arizona hopes to upset BYU. On the other hand, BYU could use improvements in the same areas.

While the two teams have similar offensive stats, the Cougars have played a much more difficult schedule. They have already faced five Power 4 teams plus Utah State. They went 4-1 in the matches against fellow P4 programs, including a win over then-No. 9 UCLA. Four of their opponents appear in the current poll, including both Wisconsin and USU. They are .500 against teams that are currently ranked.

North Carolina is the only ranked team Arizona has faced. The Wildcats are 0-1-1 in matches against other Power 4 teams.

Both Arizona and BYU are low-scoring teams this season, but they also don't give up a lot of goals. The Wildcats average 1.12 goals per game. The Cougars are only slightly better at 1.14 goals per game. On the other end of the field, the Wildcats are holding opponents to an identical 1.12 goals per game and the Cougars are holding theirs to 1.14 goals.

Both teams are outshooting opponents by a decent margin. Arizona takes 12.4 shots per game while giving up 8.5. The difference is less dramatic for BYU, which takes 13.3 shots per game and allows 11 by opponents.

On a per-game basis, the Wildcats put more of their shots on goal (5.25/gm) than the Cougars do (4.67/gm). Arizona puts 42.4 percent of its shots on goal compared to BYU at 34.4 percent.

However, BYU is doing a better job of limiting its opponents in this area than UA is. The Cougars have allowed opponents to take a total of 77 shots this season, but only 37.7 percent of those are on goal. The Wildcats have allowed a total of just 68 shots, but 42.6 percent of those are on goal.

The Cougars are relying on their goal-scorers to create their own opportunities more often than the Wildcats. BYU only has five assists on its eight goals this season. Arizona has eight assists on nine goals.

On a statistical basis, Arizona matches up well with BYU, albeit against an easier schedule. Can the Wildcats combine that with the homefield advantage to pull off the upset? It would be a big step towards flipping the script on the season so far.

*The official RPI has not yet been released this season. Projections and simulations in this article are based on the work of Christopher Thomas , who does yearly bracketology projections for Division I women's soccer.