Greg McElroy predicts upset in Michigan-Iowa Big Ten showdown

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy, the former Alabama quarterback, has often been bullish on Michigan football , even when it was unpopular. But with Iowa coming to town, amid the Wolverines ' struggles, could he retain his optimism surrounding the maize and blue?

The battle between the Wolverines and Hawkeyes has all of the elements necessary to be a complete slobber knocker -- a low-scoring affair where points come at a premium. McElroy did a thorough evaluation of the two teams and how they match up, sharing five questions he has, the answers to which will indicate which team has the advantage.

"Question one: does Michigan 's pressure beat Iowa 's protection?" McElroy said. "This is Michigan's pass rush against a line that's allowed just one sack all year. And Whittingham is 127 and 16 in his career when his team wins the sack battle. He is just 28 and 56 when they lose it. So if Hank Brown is sacked twice, then Iowa has already doubled their season total.

"Question two: can Iowa run the ball 40 times? Because that's their identity, and the formula backs it up. Since 2005, Kirk Ferentz is 84 and 11 when Iowa runs it 40-plus times in the game. When they have to drop back and throw it 35-plus times in the game, his record drops to 19 and 38. And the warning sign is kind of Iowa State . It's the one real front that Iowa's seen so far, and they held the Hawkeyes to just 93 rushing yards. So count the carries. If they get to around 40, that means Iowa's playing the game they want to play. If they're being forced to drop back and throw it, then it's Michigan's ball game.

"Question three: can Michigan move the ball with any consistency? And this is the offensive weakness against maybe the best defense on the field. And the numbers say that Iowa is almost impossible to run on between the tackles. So Michigan's answers are going to have to be the edges, and they're going to have to be utilizing Underwood's legs. Now, they also want to send jet motion and all this other stuff across the formation. They do it a ton. And that's the one thing that Iowa, we hadn't really seen a lot from them. I can't imagine giving them a ton of fits, but that's something worth watching as well as jet sweep action and how they use it to create misdirection. And Michigan, they can't afford a repeat of the UTEP start where a couple of first-half fumbles. They're not even in a good spot before they had to roll and kind of get things going. Got to start faster in this game. Can't turn the ball over. Because if Michigan gets to 250 yards without turning it over, it should be in a pretty good spot.

"Question four: who wins fourth down? Michigan has not failed on fourth down this year. Iowa has not allowed a conversion. In a game where the total's this low, one of those streaks could end and it might ultimately decide the game. So watch whether Whittingham decides to go for it in plus territory. Maybe it's in the first half, maybe in the second half. Tells you how much trust he has in his offense and his defense if, for whatever reason, they decide not to play the field position game, but I think they'll play the field position game.

"Question five: does Iowa win the field position game on the road? There we have it. Iowa's defense makes opponents start drives around their own 23, which means every opponent touchdown has to go the length of the field for the most part. And Iowa also has a punt return touchdown this year. And their kicker, Caden Buhr, has already won a game with 19 seconds left in walk-off fashion, essentially. So if Michigan's starting inside their own 25, then it's playing into Iowa's style of football. But remember, Michigan was terrific when it came to field position against Oklahoma ."

Ultimately, McElroy does not believe that the Wolverines will be able to get the job done, as he picks the Hawkeyes to walk away with their first win in Ann Arbor since 2010 and the first win over Michigan since the upset in 2016 in Iowa City.

"These are two great defenses and two offenses that are very much a work in progress," McElroy said. "However, Iowa has the better run game, arguably the better protection, might even have a slight field position edge, but Michigan has a higher ceiling, and they have a tremendous athletic quarterback, and they have the home field. But Whittingham is 4-35 in his career when his team scores fewer than 17 points. I don't think they get there. I'm taking the Iowa Hawkeyes to pull off the upset there in Ann Arbor, 16-13. And I don't think there's gonna be a single touchdown that you really remember. You'll see a lot of punts. I think Kirk Ferentz, I think he has the team to go and get this done."