Here's why a 24-team playoff will ruin great football weekends like this one
A game-by-game analysis shows that a 24-team playoff would turn a weekend like this into a battle for participation trophies.
The most frustrating aspect of the impending 24-team College Football Playoff isn't that it will lead to fewer good, meaningful games. College football will always have important must-watch showdowns, like this one coming up. But under the 24-team playoff, all those crucial games will move from September, October and early November into late December.
Consider how a weekend like this one has continued to decline in importance as the playoff field has grown, with the first CFP rankings as our guide:
4-team playoff: Miami would be playing for its playoff spot. Notre Dame would only be a spoiler.
12-team playoff: Miami is in regardless. With a loss, Notre Dame would have to win out to have any hope of staying in the playoff.
24-team playoff: Miami would be in line for a bye either way. Notre Dame would still be in the playoff field, just deep in it.
4-team playoff: Georgia would be in real trouble with a loss. Ole Miss wouldn't have a hope regardless.
12-team playoff: With a loss, Georgia would likely lose out on a bye but would still be in the playoff. Ole Miss would need some real help to stay alive in the playoff with a loss.
24-team playoff: Another case where an outstanding game would only be about playoff seeding.
4-team playoff: With a loss, Utah's playoff spot would be at real risk. BYU might — might — be able to climb into playoff contention with a win.
12-team playoff: Utah easily survives a loss, while BYU would have an extremely anxious run to the end of the season.
24-team playoff: "The Battle for a Bye" doesn't exactly have the ring of "Game of the Century," does it?
4-team playoff: Imagine LSU having the opportunity to detonate Alabama's playoff hopes in Baton Rouge.
12-team playoff: Imagine Alabama having the opportunity to detonate LSU's playoff hopes in Baton Rouge.
24-team playoff: Imagine both schools simply … jockeying for seeding. What thrilling stakes!
4-team playoff: Kentucky would need a big win to stay in any playoff conversation.
12-team playoff: Tennessee needs a big win to get back in the playoff conversation.
24-team playoff: Both schools are just fine to stay in the field, whatever happens. Again: thrilling stakes in Knoxville.
4-team playoff: Both are effectively out of the playoff conversation no matter what happens.
12-team playoff: Another case where the 12-team playoff is the right prism for this weekend. Missouri desperately needs a win, and another Texas loss could lock out the Longhorns.
24-team playoff: Maybe Missouri would have reason to worry with a loss, but probably not. Again, another case where the 24-team playoff neuters a meaningful game.
4-team playoff: UCLA is likely out of contention with a loss.
12-team playoff: This is the kind of game that could cause real problems for UCLA with a loss, which makes it a compelling watch.
24-team playoff: Minnesota is 5-3, so a win over the No. 8 team would likely vault the Gophers into the low end of a 24-team field. UCLA is safe either way.
4-team playoff: Irrelevant all the way around.
12-team playoff: Ohio State can't afford another loss. Oregon has no chance.
24-team playoff: The rare game that would actually mean something to a blue-chip program in a huge field. A win would vault Oregon back into contention, while a loss would probably eliminate the Ducks even in a 24-team field, which is a stunning fall.
4-team playoff: Irrelevant from every angle.
12-team playoff: Texas Tech needs the win to keep pace and preserve any playoff hopes.
24-team playoff: At 5-3, West Virginia could work its way into the playoff conversation with a victory over the No. 15 team. But Texas Tech would still be fine with a loss.
Well, it's pretty obvious when you lay it out like this: The 12-team playoff ends up being the best possible format, since it both preserves meaningful regular-season games and sets up a compelling postseason bracket. All nine of this weekend's games involving top-15 teams have playoff implications with a 12-team bracket; under a 24-team bracket, only three do — and they're all at the bottom end of the bracket.
In a 12-team playoff, we're watching to see if Ohio State, Ole Miss and LSU can fight their way into the bracket. In a 24-team playoff, we'd be focusing on whether three-loss teams like Oregon, Minnesota and West Virginia would make the playoff. Seriously? From that perspective, a berth in the playoff isn't a well-earned honor, it's a participation trophy.
So that's what we'll be seeing when the 24-team playoff arrives — big dogs angling for playoff seeding, three-loss teams fighting for playoff berths. Going to be exciting, right? Right … ?
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