Bleacher Report's Expert Week 7 2026 NFL Picks

In Week 6, the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, and Pittsburgh Steelers all trailed by double-digit margins in the second half and still won, covering the point spreads. Those were among the most topsy-turvy finishes from last weekend.

Analysts Gary Davenport , Brad Gagnon , Kris Knox , Moe Moton , and Brent Sobleski , along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford , took a moment to reflect on another tough week. They're back for a potential get-right slate, although the panel did go 4-0 on lone-wolf picks in Week 6.

This week's games have thin point spreads, with only one team favored by more than a touchdown. Let's see how our experts broke down the games.

First, take a look at the standings against the spread. Moton extended his lead with a 9-5 record last week. As a lone wolf, one analyst took big swings on a couple of home underdogs to make up ground in Week 7.

Lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday, Oct. 21, at 4 p.m. ET. Check FanDuel for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network . ATS records are provided by Team Rankings .

New England Patriots (4-2) at Chicago Bears (4-2)

Chicago is back in a groove following a strong performance in Atlanta and now gets to host the banged-up Patriots traveling on short rest. Behind a vulnerable offensive line, Drake Maye could be in a lot of trouble against a defense that generated three takeaways in Week 6.

So far this season, underdogs are 5-1 ATS in Thursday night games, though this is more than a trend pick. Drake Maye has his swagger back, throwing for 10 touchdowns and an interception in his last three games.

Maye gets a favorable matchup against the Bears, who gave up 367 yards and two touchdowns through the air in a 31-7 Week 5 loss to the Green Bay Packers and allowed Michael Penix Jr. to throw for 225 yards and three touchdowns last week. Meanwhile, Chicago faces New England's stingy fifth-ranked scoring defense.

In a battle between quarterbacks from the 2024 draft, this should be a close one. It's a field-goal game either way. We could get a push here, but don't hesitate to take the points.

Patriots: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-4)

I never know what to do with games overseas, but I'll back the more consistent team here. The Saints looked better against the Giants last week, but they also almost let go of the rope against J.J. McCarthy in the second half. The Steelers' offense has been middle of the road through six weeks of the season, but New Orleans' defense has struggled and will continue to do so here. Pittsburgh leans on Jaylen Warren and the run game to get the cover here.

I have absolutely no faith in the New Orleans Saints' ability to play disruptive defense or stop the run. The Saints head into Week 7 ranked 28th in yards per carry allowed, 29th in yards allowed, and 31st in points allowed.

However, I also don't trust the Pittsburgh Steelers' ability to play well offensively in back-to-back games away from home.

The Steelers should have an easier time moving the ball against the Saints' sieve of a defense than they had against the Buccaneers early last week. However, I think some red-zone struggles and a few late miscues will open the door for Tyler Shough to mount his own comeback.

Steelers: Davenport, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-2)

It's possible Baker Mayfield returns this week, but even if he doesn't, Jalon Daniels has shown the ability to compete every week. Carolina is playing well thanks to a surging Bryce Young, but these divisional games this time of the year tend to stay tight. The Panthers hang on to win, but it'll be by a field goal or less.

Whether or not Baker Mayfield plays this weekend, I give the Panthers the edge, especially with Bryce Young playing at a high level.

It remains unclear how well Mayfield can grip the ball, which is especially concerning given his tendency to overthrow receivers. If Jalon Daniels starts, Tampa Bay's limited passing production raises doubts about its ability to exploit a Panthers pass defense ranked in the league's bottom half.

Buccaneers: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

San Francisco 49ers (6-0) at Atlanta Falcons (2-4)

Is it possible that the Niners will falter on an East Coast trip to play at 1 p.m.? Will the team finally reach a tipping point amid its seemingly never-ending run of injuries? Those are legitimate concerns, but I'm still backing San Francisco. Brock Purdy is my MVP pick through six weeks, and the Niners look like Thanos with the Infinity Stones right now—inevitable.

The 49ers had to hold off the Washington Commanders' late-game Monday night rally, and they travel east on a short week with a banged-up wide receiver corps that may be without Mike Evans (ribs/Achilles). If this were Madden, the difficulty setting would be turned up to the max for the 49ers.

San Francisco defensive coordinator Raheem Morris could get revenge on the team that fired him at the beginning of this year, but it'll be a tight game. Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. wear down the 49ers' run defense to put them on upset alert.

Falcons: Gagnon, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

Lamar Jackson's ankle injury leaves his availability uncertain, but even if he sits, the Ravens are the pick here.

Cincinnati had an extra week to prepare, but Zac Taylor's record as head coach off a bye (3-4) isn't great, largely because the Bengals regularly get road trips like this coming out of the off week. His road record is worse.

The Ravens get after Joe Burrow, lean on Derrick Henry and win by a field goal.

I'm going to assume that Lamar Jackson is back in the lineup for the Baltimore Ravens this week. Having Jackson back will allow the Ravens to pressure the Cincinnati Bengals' new-look defense—which has been solid overall but still ranks 30th in yards per carry allowed.

However, the Bengals are coming out of their bye and should have a plan for stopping Derrick Henry. They can field the sort of aerial attack that will give Jesse Minter's defense trouble. Baltimore's defense has been great against the run, but Zac Taylor doesn't really believe in establishing the run anyway.

While the Ravens' pass defense looked terrific for most of last week, it's been decidedly average for most of the season. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are anything but average, and I think they'll outshine Jackson in his first game back from injury.

Ravens: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell

New York Giants (3-2-1) at Houston Texans (2-4)

It looks like the New York Giants will go with quarterback J.J. McCarthy this week, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, given his NFL track record. In an early season that has been defined by monumental upsets, though, I have a hard time backing the Houston Texans with a line this large, regardless of which Giants QB they're facing.

Houston's defense has looked nothing like the top-tier unit it was a year ago. There have been times when it's felt like the Texans merely suggest that the opposition stay out of the end zone rather than stopping them.

The Texans have been quite good offensively. However, I think that John Harbaugh will have a plan for C.J. Stroud that is far more effective than whatever strategy he employed against Tyler Shough last week.

Houston should get its first home win of the season here, but Harbaugh's squad should keep it relatively close.

This past Monday morning, "Quit Playing Games (With My Heart)" by the Backstreet Boys came on '90s radio. It felt fitting after the Giants disappointed at home against the Saints following my enthusiastic endorsement in these picks. The close final score doesn't change my view: Big Blue should have leaned on the running game all day.

Instead, the Giants' offensive approach left me questioning how they intend to use their backfield. After backing them last week, I'm not making the same pick again.

This is a poor matchup for a Giants team in the midst of an offensive identity crisis. The Texans are 0-3 at home this season but have won two straight games, including an international thriller against the division-rival Jaguars last week.

Houston's offense is starting to show signs of life, and I expect the defense to deliver its best performance of the year. That should be enough for a double-digit win and a cover.

Giants: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Sobleski

Miami Dolphins (0-5) at New York Jets (2-4)

Prior to their Week 6 bye, the Dolphins played a couple of one-score games against solid opponents. Now they appear due to finally get their first win of the season with two weeks to prepare for a Jets team that has failed to score 20 points in three consecutive games. It's hard to see Gang Green winning this by more than a field goal, if they win it at all.

The Jets are the better of these two bad teams. New York's pass defense has been among the league's best. The run defense hasn't been as strong, but Miami's offense isn't strong enough to succeed if it's forced to be one-dimensional.

The Dolphins had their bye week to prepare for the chance to get their first win, but I like New York to bounce back from its Week 6 loss and win at home by a touchdown.

Dolphins: Davenport, Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Cleveland Browns (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-5)

The Browns are in first place, but their underlying numbers raise questions. Their point differential of minus-16 is the worst of all division leaders. Cleveland has a bottom-five offense in both yards and points per game, and no team has allowed more sacks (24). The Titans have struggled, but the Browns haven't played as well as their record suggests.

The pressure is off the Titans after winning their first contest this past weekend, which is fortunate because quarterback Cam Ward will likely have a difficult outing against the Browns defense. Cleveland's defense may not be ranked highly from a statistical standpoint, but the unit has played with an aggressive and opportunistic approach all season.

The Browns wouldn't be leading the AFC North right now without their defense dictating terms. If the first six weeks have been any indication, the Titans offense isn't prepared to handle a quality opponent.

Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-0)

The Indianapolis Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard, but that won't improve Daniel Jones' passing efficiency or patch up the team's 27th-ranked scoring defense. By the way, cornerback Sauce Gardner won't play in this game because of a calf strain.

The Minnesota Vikings had extra time to prepare for this matchup, off a bye week. Also, Kyler Murray looked sharp in the Vikings' last outing, throwing for 229 yards and a touchdown with an 80 percent completion rate. Assuming Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are healthy, Minnesota beats the struggling Colts by at least a touchdown.

Sunday's outing against the Vikings is the Colts' last gasp before their season could unofficially come to a close. Chris Ballard's ouster as general manager became inevitable after Indianapolis' embarrassing loss to the previously winless Tennessee Titans. Head coach Shane Steichen could be next.

Furthermore, the Colts could quickly become sellers at the trade deadline if something doesn't change over the next three weekends. Meanwhile, the Vikings are undefeated and at home. However, they're facing a desperate team that will likely bring its best to the table.

Vikings: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Denver Broncos (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)

The Cardinals are 2-4 this season, with both wins coming at SoFi Stadium. At home, they average just 14 points per game and haven't won since Week 2 of last season.

That's nine straight home losses. Arizona could threaten a backdoor cover, but a turnover could also stretch a one-score Denver lead to two scores.

Denver's offense is struggling badly, but its defense is good enough to justify laying these points on the road.

At this point, no one should expect much from the Broncos offense. Bo Nix and Co. simply aren't good. Denver relies too heavily on its defense to keep it in games and hopefully pull out a victory late in the process.

Conversely, the Cardinals continue to compete despite obvious roster deficiencies. Arizona has scored 18 or more points in all but one game this season. The Broncos have failed to score 18 points in two of their last three games.

Broncos: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Los Angeles Rams (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-3)

Why lay this many points on the road against a Raiders team that just covered the same spread against Buffalo? The Bills aren't 2-4, and I don't see enough here to justify backing the Rams at this number.

Vegas also gave the Chiefs all they could handle at Allegiant Stadium a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, when we last saw the Rams, they were losing at home as 12.5-point favorites to the Cardinals.

The scrappy Raiders win outright—and a wobbly season for the Rams comes off the rails.

The Raiders have a decent track record at home against preseason Super Bowl contenders, losing by only a field goal to the Chiefs and Bills, but the Los Angeles Rams are 2-4 and desperate.

The Rams lost wide receiver Davante Adams and defensive tackles Kobie Turner and Poona Ford to injuries. Yet the Raiders may not be able to capitalize on those absences.

Expect Los Angeles to use multiple tight ends to compensate for losing Adams. The Raiders have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends this season. On another note, Las Vegas is struggling to run the ball with the 30th-ranked ground attack while giving up the fifth-most rushing yards.

The Rams snap out of a funk behind Puka Nacua, a physical ground attack featuring Kyren Williams and Blake Corum and a slew of tight ends to win by at least a touchdown.

Raiders: Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-2)

This game could be what Packers-Cowboys should have been last week if Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense had come to play. An improved Green Bay defense contributed to Dallas' struggles, but I don't see Jared Goff and Detroit struggling the same way.

With Jahmyr Gibbs to set the pace for the Lions, I like Goff to attack Green Bay's secondary more efficiently than Prescott was able to. The Lions' defense has plenty of holes as well, though. I don't see either team stopping the other very often in this one. Both teams clear 30 points, but the Lions win by a little more than a field goal at the end.

Theoretically, the bye week should help the Lions a bit defensively. The extra time to game plan for a well-known divisional rival certainly won't hurt a defense giving up nearly 30 points per game. But the Packers, while definitely not looking great, are finding ways to win. This game will almost certainly be a shootout decided by the final possession. That being the case, take the points.

Packers: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) at Seattle Seahawks (3-3)

One thing we know for sure about the Seahawks is that they're resilient. This is a well-coached team that is very unlikely to lose three in a row for the first time in more than two years.

Coming off a Thursday night game in Week 6, the Seahawks have had extra time to prepare for this home game.

Sam Darnold's turnover problems are a concern heading into a matchup with Steve Spagnuolo's defense. The Seattle Seahawks' starter is tied for second in the NFL with seven interceptions despite playing fewer than five full games.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are haunted by the fact that they let the Super Bowl MVP join the Kansas City Chiefs in the offseason and reemerge as a viable regular-season MVP candidate while their own ground game runs in neutral.

It's always tough to pick against Seattle at home in prime time, but only one of these teams has looked and played like a legitimate Super Bowl threat this season, and it hasn't been the defending champs.

Chiefs: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Dallas Cowboys (2-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)

The NFC East is a weird place, especially in prime time. The Eagles' season may be imploding, but that's not enough for me to back the extremely untrustworthy Cowboys as a sizeable road favorite against an experienced and resilient opponent that is very familiar with everything Dallas does. Both teams are messes, so this feels like a field-goal game.

I should take the points in this one. The Eagles being at a crossroads will probably spark a strong performance from the home side in this prime time NFC East rivalry, and the smart play is to take the points. The Dallas defense is third-worst in the league in yards allowed per game (382.5) and eighth-worst in points per game (26.5).

But the Eagles haven't figured things out offensively at all and average only 17.7 points per game. Only the Dolphins, Titans, Chargers and Browns are worse at scoring points right now. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense can be formidable when things go well, and the o-line has surrendered only seven sacks this season.

The NFC East is wide open, and while it pains me something fierce to say it, the Dallas offense is the division's best unit and could shine in the spotlight. At less than a touchdown, I'll roll the dice on a big game from Dak, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens in a must-win game.

Cowboys: Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply.