49ers vs. Rams betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props for the Australia game

After some backlash to playing a Week 1 game on a Friday — a gray area with regards to legal agreements that the pro league wouldn't step on a night reserved for amateur football in America — the NFL has moved the Super Bowl champion Seahawks' opener up a night, while still sending two teams abroad for Thursday night.

In what feels like a punishment for not beating the Seahawks to at least get to the Super Bowl, and in lieu of driving on Interstate 5, the Rams and 49ers have been sent to Melbourne, Australia to open their season with a key divisional matchup.

Yahoo Sports betting writers Matt Russell and Jeremy Pond give their best bets for the matchup.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 48.5) in Melbourne, Australia

Russell: Across the 16-game Week 1 odds board, there hasn't been a ton of line movement since the schedule was announced amid the annual, mid-May social-media frenzy, but what our game handicap pre-supposes that there should have been here?

The Rams opened -3 (+100) for this neutral-site tilt — an obvious implication that the Rams were considered, yes, about 3 points better than the 49ers. Of course, since that line became available, L.A. put together something of its own parlay, making a trade that didn't just bring the Rams Myles Garrett , but brought Aaron Donald out of retirement (restarting the clock on his inevitable first-ballot Hall-of-Fame induction).

Beyond the obvious, Garrett's grading out as the best pass rusher in the sport by PFF, with Garrett on the field, the Browns consistently ranked near the top of the NFL in pass-rush win rate, largely because Garrett commanded a league-high double-team rate of roughly 30%. Ipso facto, we can expect a similar impact with him joining the Rams, even with Donald skipping the opener .

Is that worth just a half-point, even off of a key number?

Let's take a look at last season's betting market, and the matchups for the 49ers-Rams games.

The Niners stunned the Rams in overtime in L.A., in a Week 5 game started by Mac Jones , which was lined at -8.5, or around -7 on a neutral field. Later in the season, again with Jones starting in Santa Clara in Week 10, the Rams closed as 6-point favorites on the road, or around -7 on a neutral field.

A season later, maybe Brock Purdy is a 4-point upgrade on his backup, but Jones was 33-of-39, for 319 passing yards in a 42-26 home loss last season (and was turnover-free for 342 yards in the first meeting), so how much more can Purdy improve upon that?

That's not the only roster upgrade for the 49ers, though, as they'll have Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back as well. Of course, the Rams match that with Garrett and the earlier additions of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson from Kansas City , addressing the issues they had at cornerback last season.

In the end, the 49ers are dining out on a 12-5 record in 2025, but after a Week 1 win in Seattle , outside of the quasi-miracle win in L.A., and stealing a victory in Philadelphia in the divisional round, San Francisco was outplayed by the best teams on last year's schedule ( Houston , Jacksonville , Tampa Bay ), and demonstrably in rematches with the Seahawks and Rams.

Finally, it's been reported that head coach Sean McVay and the Rams have done extensive studies on how to handle the travel in international games, and their "turn-and-burn" strategy worked well in a 35-7 win over Jacksonville — England regulars — last season.

Even though we're not capturing a key number in a game that could easily be lined a couple points higher, look for the Rams to send something of a message to the rest of the league against a familiar foe.

RB Christian McCaffrey under 60.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365)

Russell: Age is just a number, but McCaffrey's is now 30.

The 2025 Comeback Player of the Year ran into literal trouble when facing the Rams last season, long before they added Garrett for this game. McCaffrey tried the Rams' defense 34 times on the ground, totaling 87 yards in the two games, for an average of 2.55 yards per carry.

While that was his toughest matchup, McCaffrey and the Niners' offensive line struggled to find space. Of the 17 players to run for at least 1,000 yards, McCaffrey was the only one to average less than 4.0 YPC.

He'll be a weapon in the passing game, as always, but likely needing more than 15 carries, and maybe as many as 20, in a game that could get away from the Niners, we'll take the under on another future Hall of Famer.

RB Blake Corum over 43.5 rushing yards (-110, Bet365)

Russell: Corum's usage went from "in case of emergency" in his 2024 rookie season as Kyren Williams ' backup, to "we need to get this guy more touches" in Year 2.

Per our look at 32 bets for 32 teams article last week, Corum's share of carries went up to 36% last season, on the strength of a 41.5% rate in the final 11 games.

Corum ran for 5.1 yards per carry, so the hope is that all he needs Thursday is around eight carries — a number Corum got in eight of the final 11 regular-season games, and two of three in the playoffs.

You'd think trekking across the Pacific Ocean would accentuate the desire to split the work in the opener, against an opponent that was second-to-last in the NFL in defensive success rate against opponents' rushing plays.

TE Terrance Ferguson longest reception over 15.5 yards (-115, Bet365)

Russell: As a rookie, Ferguson was a designated hitter — a talented receiver in a big body that the Rams would spring on opponents, seemingly out of nowhere, and deep down the field. Eight of his 11 regular-season receptions were for at least 18 yards.

Ferguson is listed as questionable for Thursday night, so if he's unable to go, this bet will be refunded.

RB Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions (-106 at FanDuel)

Pond: The 30-year-old running back is coming off a campaign where he recorded 113 catches on 142 targets for a San Francisco side that finished 12-5 in regular season before a 41-6 blowout loss to Seattle ended its Super Bowl dreams.

That said, I fully expect McCaffrey to pick up where he left off last season. He will remain the No. 1 safety valve for Brock Purdy for dump-offs and screen passes due to the fact the 49ers quarterback is going to feel the heat all night from Myles Garrett and the Rams defense.

And when you throw in the fact the San Francisco wide-receiving corps is anything but healthy, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic McCaffrey can get the job done.

Overall, McCaffrey cleared this number in four of San Francisco's last five games – including the playoffs – last season. He also caught eight passes in each game against Los Angeles. McCaffrey wound up with at least five receptions in 15 of 19 contests, so I'm confident he will cash this prop bet and have a big night for the underdog 49ers.

Kyren Williams over 1.5 receptions (-148 at FD) and 15+ receiving yards (+140 at FD)

Pond: When it comes to finishing games with at least two receptions, Williams was a model of consistency for the Rams a season ago. He had at least two catches in his final six games of the regular season and postseason. As for his full-season numbers, he wound up with two or more receptions on 14 occasions in 20 games for a 70% hit rate.

I know everyone is aware of the fact head coach Sean McVay and the Los Angeles offensive staff is high on fellow running back Blake Corum, but he wound up with just 13 receptions on 19 targets the entire season; Williams had 44 catches on 59 targets.

Needless to say, I just don't see Corum as a threat in the passing game, whereas his success will likely impact Williams' numbers carrying the ball.

As for the yardage prop, Williams hit or cleared the magic number of 15 yards in Los Angeles' last six games of the season. In four of those games, he wound up with 21 yards or more through the air., and in the first meeting between these clubs last season, Williams hauled in eight receptions for 66 yards and two TDs.

Bottom line: I believe Williams will be heavily involved in the Rams' passing game. He gives Stafford a trusted option coming out of the backfield when he gets pressured by the opposing defense, which gives me confidence we can connect on both wagers, perhaps even in the first half.

Russell: The buzz around Stribling from the preseason shortened his odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but there's still decent payout available for a player who might have an instant connection with Purdy.

Stribling has earned a starting spot in the 49ers' three-receiver sets, and with Mike Evans getting the attention from the Rams' best coverage options in the red zone, and Deebo Samuel on their radar from years of facing the Niners with him, Stribling could parlay a big camp into a good look for a score.

Russell: We're already in on Nacua to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, so we'll be occasionally worried about whether the Rams' quick tosses to him at the goal line will be ruled laterals, but that's not going to be an issue in game-to-game anytime touchdown betting. Of course, Nacua is also a deep threat against a relatively weak San Francisco secondary.

Russell: With Nacua out for their Week 7 trip to London to take on the Jaguars, the Rams had to adjust their offense to feature bigger, three-tight end sets, at the same time that Colby Parkinson was getting healthier, having missed two of the first six games.

After their subsequent bye week, Parkinson's usage shot up the rest of the season, frequently playing more than 70% of the snaps, and scoring eight touchdowns. Those TDs came in seven of 13 games — a rate of better than 50% of the time. Given 4-to-1 odds imply that Parkinson scores just 20% of the time, these odds don't reflect Stafford's affection for throwing to his 6-foot-7 red zone target.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell , at THE WINDOW .