Picking Each NFL Division Winner Entering the Heart of the 2026 Season

With Week 7 underway, all but about a dozen NFL teams remain within striking distance of the top spot in their division.

The Leader: Buffalo Bills (5-1) The Challenger: New England Patriots (4-3) Who'll Win It: Buffalo

The Bills have already lost to the Patriots, and they have not been winning pretty. New England could also benefit from being the host when the two meet again in December.

Still, the Pats' schedule is a lot tougher than last year's historically soft slate. With home games against the Raiders and Jets already complete, they're still two back of Buffalo in the loss column after falling to the Bears on Thursday night.

Keep in mind that the Bills have defeated the Patriots in December in each of the last six seasons (with four of those coming in Foxborough).

The Challengers: Cleveland Browns (4-2), Baltimore Ravens (4-2), Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)

I understand why Baltimore is the favorite, but the stars could be aligning for the Bengals.

The Bengals will have had two weeks to prepare for this weekend's game against the Ravens, and Lamar Jackson's availability and effectiveness following his ankle injury could be major factors.

A win could move the Bengals toward control of the division, especially given that they have the league's easiest remaining schedule, according to ESPN's Football Power Index .

I don't believe the Browns have the talent or experience to sustain what they've done over the first six weeks, and the Steelers don't have the firepower to win consistently.

The Bengals are flying under the radar with easily the best DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) in the division. If they can stay healthy, I think this is their year.

The Leader: Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) The Challengers: Indianapolis Colts (2-4), Houston Texans (2-4) Who'll Win It: Jacksonville

The Colts are about to travel to Minnesota and Jacksonville. Based on their current trajectory, by the time they return to Indianapolis, they could essentially be four games back of the Jags.

This will realistically come down to Houston and Jacksonville, which is still a race thanks to the Texans' Week 6 win over the Jaguars in London. Still, the Jags are clearly the better team with the more talented quarterback, and both teams have equally forgiving schedules the rest of the way.

This will go down to the wire, but I trust Jacksonville a fair bit more right now. The team has the third-best DVOA in the league and a healthy cushion to work with en route to a second consecutive division title.

The Leader: Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) The Challengers: Denver Broncos (4-2), Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) Who'll Win It: Kansas City

I don't know that the Broncos have it in them this year. The offense has regressed significantly, and the sample is no longer small.

The Chiefs are averaging an AFC-best 6.7 yards per play with the conference's highest DVOA, while the Broncos are averaging an AFC-worst 4.4 yards per play with a middle-of-the-pack DVOA.

Now, Denver's schedule has been brutal while the Chiefs have yet to be strongly challenged, but Kansas City did crush the Broncos in the season opener and is well-positioned to lock up the tiebreaker when the two meet again in two weeks' time. The Broncos are winning ugly, and it doesn't strike me as sustainable now that the Chiefs are back in the picture after a one-year hiatus.

The Challengers: Dallas Cowboys (2-4), Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)

This is the ultimate "division by default" situation. The Eagles are imploding and have lost several key players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, but the division-leading Giants are also in a quarterback quandary as they make the move to J.J. McCarthy—their third starter in a seven-week span.

I would have been tempted to include the Commanders in the conversation had they defeated San Francisco on Monday night to move to 2-3-1, but we're instead left with an unremarkable and unreliable Dallas team that can certainly still move the football and score points.

The Cowboys aren't trustworthy, but they've managed at least seven wins in nine of the last 10 completed seasons. They should reach that mark again as they navigate one of the league's easiest remaining schedules.

The Challengers: Chicago Bears (5-2), Green Bay Packers (4-2), Detroit Lions (3-2)

I'm surprised to see just how heavily favored the Vikings are, but a two-game cushion in the loss column is pretty significant in a division where the teams routinely cannibalize one another.

Minnesota already has victories over Green Bay and Chicago, and Kyler Murray is picking up steam while buoyed by the support of the top-ranked scoring defense in the NFL.

The Packers and Bears also face tougher slates the rest of the way, while the Lions' defense looks too problematic.

I won't completely rule out Chicago if Caleb Williams can keep building on things with Ben Johnson and that defense can keep making plays, but the margin for error is minuscule.

The Challengers: New Orleans Saints (2-4), Atlanta Falcons (2-4)

The Falcons are a legitimate challenger here—unlike the Saints, who look a year away—but Carolina's 34-3 blowout win in Atlanta in Week 2 tips the balance in the Panthers' favor.

That could leave the Falcons in a really tough spot even if they do charge back to make this interesting before the two meet again in Charlotte in Week 18.

Both offenses are strong, but the Panthers have more experience and established talent on defense, already hold a 1.5-game division lead and have a slightly easier remaining schedule.

The Challengers: Seattle Seahawks (3-3), Arizona Cardinals (2-4), Los Angeles Rams (2-4)

The Rams are listed as a challenger only because they entered the season as the overwhelming Super Bowl favorite, while the Cardinals are included because they're ahead of Los Angeles in the standings.

Neither can realistically overcome a four-game deficit here, especially with losses to San Francisco under their belts and L.A.'s injury situation.

It's also likely already too late for a Seattle team that has revealed some serious warts while losing three of four and now faces the NFC's most difficult remaining schedule.

The 49ers are hammering the rest of the league in DVOA, and there is a strong chance they will be 10-0 heading into their late-November showdown with a Seattle squad that could already be saddled with five losses.