Bleacher Report's Expert Week 9 2026 NFL Picks

Week 9 in the NFL could be full of upsets.

The slate features 15 games, including the Cincinnati Bengals' matchup with the Atlanta Falcons in Madrid. Of the 14 games that aren't at a neutral site, eight feature home underdogs. Seven road teams are favored by a touchdown or less.

Analysts Gary Davenport , Brad Gagnon , Kris Knox , Moe Moton , and Brent Sobleski , along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford , sniffed out a few trap bets as they navigated through Week 9 games. We'll see how many favorites they faded, and how they approached the bigger spreads.

First, check out our expert standings against the spread. Moton leads the panel midseason, but there's still a long way to go, and trades could change the outlook for some teams.

Lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday, Nov. 4, at 4 p.m. ET. Check FanDuel for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network . ATS records are provided by Team Rankings .

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4)

I think this line is significantly inflated. Double-digit road wins on Thursdays are extremely rare. The Jaguars are clearly the better team right now, but they're still traveling on short rest to play an experienced, desperate opponent, and they just lost two key defenders to season-ending injuries.

Don't forget they're also without their starting left tackle, Anton Harrison, and Bhayshul Tuten is hurting as well. The Jags might have a major quarterback advantage, but they're far from healthy. This feels like a trap.

Baltimore's quarterback depth was put to the test last weekend, with injuries to Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley forcing the Ravens to turn to emergency option Joe Fagnano.

The undrafted rookie may have the benefit of preparing as the starter, but his first start comes against a top-10 scoring defense. The bigger question is whether Baltimore's defense can keep Jacksonville from covering the spread. I'm not counting on it.

Jaguars: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-5)

During his time as Cleveland Browns head coach, Kevin Stefanski regularly got the better of Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I think his experience in those matchups could come into play here, and I have concerns about Cincinnati's ability to corral Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

However, I haven't seen enough consistency from Michael Penix Jr. to believe that the Falcons will actually take advantage of a Bengals defense that could come out sluggish in Spain.

The Bengals are the better team, and this is a fairly small line for a neutral-site game.

The Falcons are still drying off from being lost at sea in Tampa Bay—where the Buccaneers floated by on the tide just enough to win a game without completing a single pass.

It was something nobody really needs to watch again. Bijan Robinson and Drake London need to stretch their wings and that means a cover if not an outright win against a Bengals team that inspires very little confidence right now.

Falcons: Davenport, Gagnon, Moton, O'Donnell

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-4)

The Panthers have come back down to earth the past couple of weeks, and the Broncos are flying high after last week's dramatic win over the rival Chiefs. But Denver could be a different team away from Mile High, especially when traveling east to play early. Coming off that big win over Kansas City and with the bye looming, the Broncos will take their foot off the gas just enough for Carolina to cover.

I could see the Panthers' ground game being enough to keep this one close. Denver's defense has looked better in recent weeks, but it still ranks just 23rd in yards per carry allowed. If Chuba Hubbard gets loose, the Broncos could struggle to keep Carolina out of the end zone.

However, I don't believe that firing coordinator Ejiro Evero will instantly give the Panthers a top-tier defense. Carolina's pass defense was atrocious last week in Green Bay, and I think it will allow Bo Nix to build on his best performance of the year.

I expect to see an even matchup early. However, Denver's pass rush will eventually be too much for the Panthers' banged-up offensive line, and the Broncos should pull away late.

Broncos: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski

Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-6)

The Dallas Cowboys made this writer feel foolish for backing them at home against the Arizona Cardinals. They squandered a 14-point fourth-quarter lead and lost in overtime. Absolutely brutal.

The Cowboys are an untrustworthy team because of their porous defense. If they weren't playing the Indianapolis Colts, who traded two of their best players last week, the opponent would be the side here.

Nonetheless, the Colts are free-falling, and the Cowboys should be able to win by at least a touchdown against a team that's scored 20 or fewer points in three straight games.

Trade speculation surrounding Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor adds another storyline for the Colts this weekend. After he had just eight carries last week, don't expect his workload to increase.

The Colts will almost certainly lean heavily on Seth McGowan and DJ Giddens again, while quarterback Daniel Jones is one or two mistakes from being pulled to see what Anthony Richardson can do. The Dallas Cowboys defense may be bad, but the Colts are coming apart at the seams.

Cowboys: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Cleveland Browns (5-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-5)

I don't really trust either team here, but I'm going with the team that's rested, coming off a bye at home, over the team coming off a loss and on the road again. Both teams have struggled to score this season, but I believe Tyler Shough can do just enough to get New Orleans a win in what will probably be a game that's a race to 20 points. Saints win by a field goal.

The Saints may have had an extra week to prepare for this particular matchup and they're at home, but the Cleveland Browns have a knack for keeping games close, if not finding a way to win outright thanks to a late-game surge.

Plus, the Saints have had issues slowing opposing tight ends this season. Harold Fannin Jr. is arguably the Browns' best player, with 245 receiving yards over the last two weeks. He's going to be a major issue for the Saints to defend, while helping Cleveland's inconsistent offense get on track.

Saints: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton

New York Jets (2-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

After back-to-back road losses, the Chiefs return to Arrowhead for what feels like a get-right game. Kansas City has been dominant at home this year. It helps that the Chiefs are playing the Jets, who are in shambles after blowing a multi-score second-half lead to the Raiders at home last week.

Last season, the Jets went 0–3 on the road against teams that entered those games with winning records, losing by an average of 22.7 points. Their last road win over a team with a winning record entering the game came more than four years ago.

I simply don't trust the Chiefs to cover a multi-score spread right now. I'll probably eat those words come next week, but you know what? It was fun watching the Jets game last weekend. I can't believe I just typed that.

Jets: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-6)

Miami fights. The Dolphins have only lost one game by more than five points since Week 3. The Lions merely survived despite scoring just 39 points total in back-to-back home wins, but now they're traveling for a potential trap game. A full touchdown is pushing it in this spot.

The Dolphins have covered the spread in four consecutive games. So we must view this team through that lens, but the Lions defense has tightened up with Pro Bowl safety Brian Branch back on the field in the last two games.

Detroit held the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings to 17 and 15 points, respectively. Playing from behind, the Dolphins may struggle to keep pace with the Lions, who have been a bit stingier on defense lately.

Lions: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

New York Giants (4-2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-6)

So, we're all on the same side, which usually means trouble for that team. Even so, the Philadelphia Eagles offense has struggled mightily, even before the team placed Jalen Hurts on injured reserve with blood clots. The Eagles are averaging 14.8 points on their six-game losing streak, and this isn't a get-right game against the NFC East-leading New York Giants coming off a bye week.

I'm hoping for a clean slate with the Giants after their bye week. Every week, they do the opposite of what I write and pick, and while I'm far enough gone in the season to consider the opposite-pick method, I want to believe in this Giants team against a depleted and, simply, not very good Eagles team.

Giants: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Los Angeles Rams (4-4) at Washington Commanders (2-4-1)

There seems to be something of a theme with this week's picks—besides my being wrong. Despite losing wide receiver Terry McLaurin for the season, the Commanders played one of their better offensive games of the campaign last week against the Eagles, and the Rams have covered a spread this big on the road just once this year.

It's getting to the point in the year where the Rams need to start flexing some muscle if they truly have it. Even with all the injuries, this team has more than enough talent and savvy to beat Washington by a touchdown.

Houston Texans (2-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-7)

At some point, the Chargers have to look like a competent and competitive football team. I think we'll see it happen this week against a Texans team that has been equally disappointing through the first half of 2026.

Houston's defense has looked nothing like the top-tier unit it was a year ago. While the Texans' pass rush will still present problems for a Chargers offensive line missing Rashawn Slater, a healthier skill group should give Justin Herbert the chance to find a rhythm.

Both teams have struggled, and both will be desperate. The Chargers may not actually pull out the upset, but I think they'll keep it close at home.

Eventually, the Chargers will win a game, right? This weekend's matchup against the Texans may not be their best opportunity. Houston is coming off a bye week after a disappointing start to the season.

Once again, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has faced significant pressure throughout the campaign. A meeting with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter won't improve the situation. Besides, Houston had been playing better with back-to-back victories prior to its overtime loss against the New York Giants.

Chargers: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Las Vegas Raiders (4-4) at San Francisco 49ers (6-1)

Everything logical here is telling me to take the 49ers to win this one going away, and as bad as the Las Vegas defense has been, it's very possible that I'm wrong here.

But this one just feels like a backdoor cover: Kirk Cousins makes a handful of big plays to keep the Raiders in touch, then finds the end zone for a meaningless touchdown to keep a scrappy Las Vegas team within single digits.

The Raiders have allowed 30-plus points in five consecutive games. They just gave up 33 to the New York Jets and fell behind by 11 at halftime last week. Now, they'll face a much tougher opponent coming off a bye week. Also, the San Francisco 49ers may get some banged-up offensive players back for this game.

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan knows how to script an effective ground attack in many ways, and the Raiders are giving up 5.1 yards per carry, the most in the league. Even if Christian McCaffrey is limited by a hamstring injury, rookie Kaelon Black could have a big day against the Raiders' defensive front while Brock Purdy picks his spots, throwing to George Kittle and Mike Evans (if healthy).

The 49ers bounce back after their sloppy pre-bye-week loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

Raiders: Davenport, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Arizona Cardinals (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

This is simple. We have already seen the Cardinals cover a spread this size on the road against an NFC West opponent. And frankly, the Seahawks are far too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable laying this many points.

The Arizona Cardinals have covered in two of their previous three games, with road wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys. So, they should've earned a little more respect than a double-digit line even before the Seahawks ruled out Sam Darnold with a quad injury.

However, the Cardinals will play this game with second-string quarterback Gardner Minshew II and without running back Jeremiyah Love and possibly backup Bam Knight. Arizona's wide receiver corps is also decimated by injuries. Michael Wilson is dealing with broken ribs. Kendrick Bourne and Jalen Brooks are on injured reserve.

Laying double digits is risky given Arizona's recent results, but the Seahawks blew out the Cardinals 31-7 in Arizona in mid-September with backup quarterback Drew Lock, and they can do it again at home.

Seahawks: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell

Green Bay Packers (5-3) at New England Patriots (5-3)

My initial estimate on this game was New England by a field goal. If I were getting a hook on the other side of that key number, I'd be on the Packers. It's that simple. The Pats have won all three of their home games by a combined 52 points, while it's been nearly a calendar year since the Packers last won a game by more than a field goal outside of Green Bay.

I have a hard time trusting either team, so I'm backing the underdog in what I expect will be a low-scoring, close game. I think there's the potential for both defenses to dictate this one as both have been strong all season.

In that event, I like Jordan Love and Green Bay's weapons to make a few more important plays than Drake Maye's crew will. The Packers come in on a little extra rest after winning last Thursday and carry that to a narrow win here.

Packers: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) at Chicago Bears (6-2)

The Buccaneers have the ingredients to keep this game close: a stingy defense and Bucky Irving's strong recent running. However, I'm not expecting a letdown from Chicago after its dominant win over the Seahawks on Monday.

The addition of Jeffery Simmons should strengthen Chicago's front seven down the stretch. Tampa Bay should improve on last week's passing performance, but I don't expect it to be enough.

The Bears looked like an elite all-around team against the Seahawks in Seattle on Monday night. They'll be back in prime time and back in Chicago for a matchup against a Bucs team that didn't even complete a pass last week.

At first blush, this feels like a massive mismatch. However, I think it's easy to overlook just how good Tampa's defense has been this season. Ben Johnson was able to scheme things up against Seattle, but I think he'll have a harder time here, given Tampa's ability to shut down the run.

The Bucs may not have enough punch in their passing game to actually win this one, especially if Baker Mayfield isn't at 100 percent. However, I think their defense and surging ground game will make this one closer than most expect.

Bears: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

Buffalo Bills (6-1) at Minnesota Vikings (6-1)

I'm breaking with my home-underdog theme here. The Vikings will be looking to rebound from last Monday night's loss to Detroit, but I'm concerned their ultra-aggressive defense could backfire against Josh Allen and the Bills.

Allen has been sacked just 13 times this season. Unless Minnesota assigns a defender to shadow him, those blitzes could leave him room to make big plays on the ground.

Despite their record, the Bills are not playing great football. They were frequently out of sync offensively in Baltimore, and the defense was lucky to be facing a third-string quarterback. This is a much more challenging spot for them, especially on the road in prime time. Their three road wins this season have come by a combined 11 points, and they're due for a dud against an absolutely dominant defense.

Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski

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