Aaron Rodgers has already thrown 1,871 yards for Pittsburgh; what his 2026 Steelers numbers reveal about their Super Bowl chances

Aaron Rodgers has 1,871 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and six interceptions through eight games. The Steelers are 6-2, have won four in a row and lead the AFC North going into their Week 9 bye. Those totals look healthy, but the story behind them is more mixed. Jaylen Warren and the defense drove the latest win over Cleveland, and Mason Rudolph played the final snaps. Here is what Rodgers’ numbers say about a title run.What Aaron Rodgers’ 1,871 yards say about the Steelers’ offenseAaron Rodgers has completed 175 of 288 passes, or 60.8 percent, for 6.5 yards per attempt. His passer rating is 86.2. Spread over 17 games, his yardage lands near 3,980. That is close to last season, when he finished eighth in the league in yards and tied for seventh in touchdown passes.Volume is not the issue. Efficiency is. His 6.5 yards per attempt sits below last year’s 6.8, a mark that ranked 23rd. Pro Football Focus had him 25th among 35 qualified quarterbacks in overall grade through Week 7. Sumer Sports, which tracks how much each play helps or hurts a drive, has his passing in negative territory over that stretch.So the box score is kinder than the film. He throws a lot and finds the end zone often enough, but the offense is not yet getting big gains from his arm on a steady basis. Pittsburgh has 1,699 passing yards as a team through seven games, only slightly more than the 1,610 its opponents have managed.Why his best and worst days look so differentThe swings are the real pattern. In Week 2, New England beat Pittsburgh 20-3, and Rodgers went 23 of 39 for 187 yards with an interception and no touchdowns.Then came a hot run. He threw for 292 yards and three scores against Cincinnati, 299 and three at Cleveland, then 235 and three against Indianapolis. ESPN noted that no quarterback aged 41 or older had ever thrown three touchdowns in three straight games within a season. Each of his scores against the Bengals traveled at least 20 air yards, which was a first for him as a Steeler.He also dragged the team back from 13 down in the fourth quarter against Tampa Bay, finishing 33 of 49 for 253 yards in an overtime win. Last Sunday he went 13 of 25 for 172 yards, the lowest totals of his season, and threw no touchdown.Protection explains a lot of the gap. Rodgers has been sacked 23 times, close to three a game, and the Week 4 loss in Cleveland included five of them. His time to throw averages about 2.6 seconds, so he is not holding the ball long. The pressure is arriving quickly, and when the line holds, he looks like a quarterback who can still win games.Is the run game now carrying Pittsburgh?Over the last month, yes. Warren ran for 143 yards and a touchdown against the Browns, tying his career high. The Steelers piled up 200 rushing yards as a team, and all three of their touchdowns came on the ground. Warren had 561 rushing yards before that game, and he has four 100-yard days since Week 3.The defense matched that. Pittsburgh sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, a season high, and T.J. Watt came into the game with 7.5 sacks this year. Cleveland ran for only 34 yards. Reports after the game said the Steelers have allowed just one second-half touchdown all season.This changes Rodgers’ job. He no longer has to rescue every drive, which suits a 42-year-old with an arm that works best in short bursts. Coach Mike McCarthy still said his team left points on the field, and that is fair. The pass game has to produce more explosive plays than it has. DK Metcalf leads receivers with 374 yards, and Warren and rookie Germie Bernard are the next two names, which shows how spread out and modest the target share has been.It also means the formula depends on staying ahead. Running the ball works when the score is close. Rodgers, with his history of late comebacks, is the safety net for the games where it is not.How real are the Steelers’ Super Bowl chances?The market started out doubtful. Before the season, books listed Pittsburgh anywhere from about +6000 to +10000, which put them well outside the top tier. A 6-2 record and first place in the division have helped, but the current favorites are still teams like the Rams and Bills, and Pittsburgh has not been priced like one of them since.What gives the case some weight is the shape of the team. A strong run game, a defense that pressures the passer and a veteran quarterback who has seen every look is a recognizable playoff profile. Rodgers has not won a title since the 2010 season with Green Bay. The Steelers last did it after the 2008 season. Super Bowl LXI is on February 14 at SoFi Stadium.The weak points are clear enough. The passing game needs more explosive plays, the offensive line needs to cut those sacks, and Rodgers needs more nights like Week 5 than Week 8. He is also working on a one-year, $22.5 million deal, so every game carries some urgency.The next test comes in Week 10 at Cincinnati on Sunday night. There is a milestone in play too. Rodgers needs roughly 1,855 more yards to reach 70,000 for his career. At his current pace, that would take about eight more games, which puts it inside this regular season.Get the latest Sports News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.