Bills to face a Vikings defense unlike any they have seen this season
In a battle of two 6-1 teams, ESPN is a big winner as it gets Bills vs. Vikings on Monday night. Here's a look ahead to the NFL game of the week.
ORCHARD PARK - The folks who run ESPN could not be more thrilled with how the Week 9 schedule has panned out for them because the bickering broadcast tandem of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman will be calling what is far and away the NFL's game of the week.
Entering the year everyone knew the Buffalo Bills were a Super Bowl contender and having started the season 6-1 that is proving to be correct, even though they are far from a flawless team as we saw in their 36-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens.
Conversely, not a whole lot was expected from the Minnesota Vikings who play in what might be the NFL's best division, the rugged NFC North, where the last-place Packers are 5-3. However, the Vikings won their first six games and were the last unbeaten team in the league before succumbing 19-15 on Sunday to the Lions .
Thus, ESPN gets a pair of division-leading 6-1 teams in a fascinating game in that when the Bills have the ball on offense it's going to be a matchup of great on great, and when the Vikings have the ball it will be the polar opposite, bad on bad.
Buffalo leads the NFL in scoring at 33.3 points per game thanks to a league-best 27 touchdowns and is second in yards per game (393.1) and yards per play (6.3). Not to diminish those numbers, but the Bills have done this against a fistful of mediocre to poor defenses. The best defense they faced based on points allowed per game is the Patriots who sit eighth with an average yield of 20.3. That was the only game they lost, one of only two where they failed to score at least 30 points.
Now Josh Allen and company will be facing the blitz-happy Vikings who lead the NFL by a whopping margin in fewest points allowed per game (13.3), sack percentage (10.96%) and QB pressure rate (45.8%) and second in yards (271.6), . The old bromide is that great defense beats great offense. We'll see, but the fact that the game is at U.S. Bank Stadium certainly gives the Vikings an advantage.
When those two great units are on the sidelines, we'll be watching the struggling Buffalo defense battling the equally struggling Minnesota offense. The Bills showed signs of life, albeit against Baltimore's third-string emergency QB Joe Fagnano, holding the Ravens to 10 points and 144 yards, and that performance helped them jump up in the rankings to 24th in points (25.9) and yards (352.1).
One would assume Kyler Murray will present more of a test, but the Vikings' offense ranks 27th in points (20.0), 29th in yards (279.4) and has scored just 11 touchdowns, ahead of only the dreadful Chargers who have nine.
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Coach Joe Brady is going to need to put together an outstanding pass protection plan because Minnesota's pass rush is lethal and has been eviscerating opposing QBs all season. The Vikings blitz at a stunning rate of 71% per NextGenStats - the next-most blitzing team are the Bears who do it 40.6% of the time. And Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores sends those blitzes from every possible angle and you never know who's coming as 11 different players have at least half a sack, led by LBs Andrew Van Ginkel (6.5) and Dallas Turner (6).
They have one of the best WRs in the NFL in Justin Jefferson, but he has been neutered by this terrible offense and has just 28 catches on 40 targets for 335 yards. Murray has to take advantage of a Buffalo secondary that is still highly vulnerable when it isn't playing against a rookie emergency third-stringer making his NFL debut. This may be a game where the Bills' top CB, Christian Benford, travels with Jefferson and if so, that will be an intriguing subplot to watch.
Allen is a magician with his escape ability, but escaping Minnesota's pass rush is a whole different thing and not even Allen will be immune to the nonstop pressure, especially if RT Spencer Brown has to miss another game. The best way to back the Vikings off would be to feed James Cook and get him going against a run defense that ranks 17th at 116.7 yards per game and is tied for the sixth-most 10-plus yards runs allowed (24). Cook's 47.8% rushing success based on EPA is fourth-best in the NFL per Sumer Sports, his 5.12 average per carry is also fourth, and his 318 yards before first contact is No. 1.
The Vikings have faced three upper tier QBs and they were victorious in the first two weeks against the Packers' Jordan Love and the Bears' Caleb Williams, and then lost Sunday to the Lions' Jared Goff. In those three games their average net passing yield was just 148 yards thanks in part to 12 sacks for 85 yards, but the Lions provided the blueprint against Minnesota.
They pounded the Vikings on the ground for 230 yards, including 153 from Jahmyr Gibbs, and that's something the Bills can lean into with Cook who is every bit as dynamic as Gibbs and, in fact, has a higher average per carry.
As long as the Bills don't turn the ball over and/or kill themselves with penalties, they should become just the second team to reach 20 points against the Vikings, and that might be enough. And if there's one offense Buffalo's defense can match up with, it's Minnesota's which scored just nine points against an excellent Bears defense, but also managed only 15, 16 and 15 respectively against the lousy defenses of the Dolphins, Colts and Lions.
What time does the Bills vs Vikings game start?
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. at U.S. Bank Stadium.
The Bills have opened as a 3-point favorite. The money line is Bills minus-150 (bet $150 to win $100) and Vikings plus-125 (bet $100 to win $125). The over-under is 46.5.
Cable/Network TV: ESPN. The game will be available on Spectrum channel 24 in Rochester, Syracuse, Albany, Binghamton, Utica and Elmira, and channel 30 in Buffalo.
How can you stream Bills vs Vikings game?
Online streaming services: With your TV subscription you can watch on your phone or tablet on ESPN.com, the ESPN mobile app, and ESPN Deportes. You can also watch games on NFL.com and the NFL mobile app, and you can subscribe to NFL+, the league's own streaming service, though you can't cast the games to your TV - you must watch on your phone or tablet.
TV streaming: You can also stream if you have subscriptions to Spectrum, DirecTV Choice, Fubo Sports , Sling, Vidgo, Hulu + Live TV, YouTubeTV + NFL Sunday Ticket.
On the radio: How to listen to the Bills vs Vikings game
You can listen on SiriusXM satellite radio on channel 193 (Bills feed) and channel 192 (Vikings feed), and on traditional radio, the Bills Radio Network has stations all across the state. Chris Brown has the play-by-play, Eric Wood is the analyst, and Steve Tasker is the sideline reporter. The network includes:
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 37 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
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