Breaking Down Thursday Night Football Between Denver And Seattle

Tonight's NFL offering is a good one. This isn't necessarily a Super Bowl preview but it is the most attractive matchup of the week. Both teams are dinged up at key positions and Denver has a bit of an offensive identity issue.

Sean Payton has taken over play calling so it will be interesting to see how much (or little) changes for the Broncos. One thing's for sure, he needs to figure out how to slow down Seattle's pass rush.

Last week our NFL picks were hot . These odds are from Caesars.

Seattle at Denver (+2.5) Over/under 40.5 Thursday 8 p.m. Amazon Prime

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Broncos CB1 Patrick Surtain II are both dealing with bum ankles. The biggest one-on-one matchup may not be as front and center as we hope it will be. Still, both will play. It's more important for Surtain to be 100%. If he's not, a healthy(ish) JSN will cook him. That is, if Sam Darnold stops throwing interceptions. He's falling into old habits already this year. I still give the edge slightly to Seattle's offense.

Denver can't run the ball. Averaging about 86 yards a game won't get it done when you have to neutralize a pretty fierce pass rush. The last three weeks however havent been the Seahawks' best on defense. They've given up about 28.5 a game over that stretch (two losses). Sean Payton needs to figure out how to keep Bo Nix upright and efficient. Once again edge to Seattle.

It's going to come down to who the steadier quarterback is. Darnold has thrown five interceptions and been sacked eight times in the last three games. Nix has one turnover but his completion percentage over three games is only 56.3%. That simply will not do in this league anymore, especially against a defense the caliber of Seattle.

What do the oddsmakers say? Home underdogs getting 3.5 points or less are covering at about a 52% clip so far this year. So this is a toss up in that regard. Both teams are 5-0 in their last five Thursday games combined. Something has to give.

Bottom line: Denver can't run the ball. Their secondary is banged up. Their offense won't fix itself in a week. A saving grace may be Seattle's propensity to give up 28 a game lately. Being at home will give the Broncos a small boost. It probably won't be enough.

The play: Lay the points. It may be a close one but Seattle absolutely can't afford to fall another game back in the NFC West. They may not be able to catch San Francisco anyway but the Rams are looming. I mean, as long as they can find a kicker. This is not a must win yet for Seattle, but close.

Take the over on the total also, 40.5 seems a touch low despite the good defenses involved. This one will have a few more points scored than you might think.